The Federal Reserve signaled Wednesday it would lower interest rates two more times this year after it slashed its benchmark federal funds rate by 50 basis points to a range of 4.75%-5.0% at the conclusion of its meeting on Wednesday.
Fed officials see the fed funds rate coming down to 4.4% in 2024. That suggests the Fed will cut rates by an additional 0.50% later this year. Outside of Wednesday’s jumbo 50 basis point cut, the Fed has moved in 25-basis-point increments over the last year or so, indicating the central bank expects to cut interest rates two more times in 2024. The previous June projection had interest rates peaking at 5.1%.
Along with its policy announcement, the Fed released updated economic forecasts in its Summary of Economic Projections (SEP), including its “dot plot,” which maps out policymakers’ expectations for where interest rates could be headed in the future.
In total, 17 officials predicted further easing this year with just two seeing rates holding steady through the remainder of the year. Seven officials estimate just one more cut, while nine officials see two additional cuts. One official predicts three cuts to come by the end of the year.
Next year, the majority of officials see the fed funds rate hitting 3.4%, lower than the 4.1% anticipated in its prior forecast. That suggests four additional rate cuts to come in 2025. Officials see two more cuts from there in 2026, which would bring the fed funds rate down to 2.9%.
The updated projections suggest the Federal Reserve has begun its long-awaited easing cycle as the central bank attempts to maneuver a soft landing of the economy, in which price increases stabilize while employment remains robust.
So far this year, inflation has moderated but remains above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target on an annual basis, pressured by hotter-than-expected readings on monthly “core” prices in recent months.
The job market has also been a particular focus for the Fed after the unemployment rate unexpectedly ticked up to 4.3% in July. It’s since come down to 4.2% as FOMC members debate whether or not recent labor market softness indicates the market is gradually cooling or quickly weakening.
