I was wrong.
On Monday, in response to an Adam Schefter tweet announcing that A.J. Brown was expected to miss multiple weeks with a hamstring injury, I wrote: “Is today the worst day in fantasy football history or…”
It was a comment on all the injuries to big-name stars we’ve seen in just the first two weeks of the season. Starting with the consensus No. 1 overall pick Christian McCaffrey, it just seemed like an endless litany of injuries. Quarterbacks Jordan Love and Tua Tagovailoa, running backs Isiah Pacheco, Kenneth Walker III, Joe Mixon and Raheem Mostert, wide receivers Puka Nacua, Deebo Samuel, Cooper Kupp, Tee Higgins, and Keenan Allen. Plus, Justin Jefferson, Amon-Ra St. Brown and CeeDee Lamb are dealing with injuries that we don’t know the severity of yet. David Njoku and Jake Ferguson are both hurt and the rest of the top five tight ends might as well be given how little production they’ve had through two weeks.
Hit after hit just kept coming and I saw all the tweets, comments and DM’s.
“My season is over.”
“This sucks.”
“You know this is somehow all Jay Croucher’s fault.”
That last one may have just been my private text to Connor Rogers. Point is, the panic these days isn’t just limited to the disco, but it permeates those fantasy football streets. And I, too, bought into it. The worst, I said. The worst day in fantasy football history.
But then I thought – yes, I occasionally think – I really wonder if that’s true. So, I started going through my old archives and I found a column I wrote back in 2020. That column was also about carnage, similar to what we are going through now. And even last year, my Week 3 column, had similar themes.
We are such creatures of the moment we forget that, well, football is a violent sport and it’s a sport played with a leather ball that is an oblong shape. Injuries and weird s*** happens every single year.
But perhaps it was never more pronounced than in 2017. In my 2020 column that I mentioned, I had done some research about 2017. That year, you see, Arizona Cardinals running back David Johnson was the consensus No. 1 pick in fantasy football. The “Christian McCaffrey” if you will of that year, he was the running back that every single person had as the No. 1 overall player in fantasy football.
And in 2017, he played one game.
ONE.
And then he was done for the year.
That 2020 column included some research on that 2017 season using ESPN ‘s game platform which, as you know, has millions upon millions of users. In other words, a very legitimate sample size.
And in 2017, on ESPN, of the millions of people that drafted David Johnson No. 1 overall, 6.78% of them… ENDED UP WINNING THEIR LEAGUE.
You heard me.
6.78%.
To quote the great philosopher Lloyd Christmas… “So you’re telling me there’s a chance?”
You’re damn right I am.
At ESPN, the default league size is 10 teams. So, if we play that out further, before the draft even starts, everyone in the league has a 10% chance at winning it all. And now you’re telling me that, in 2017, 6.78% percent of the people that got just one game out of their No. 1 overall pick won their league?
Okay, we can work with this.
Is a 6.78% chance great? No.
But it ain’t nothing, either.
Not included in the column, but for 12-team leagues in 2017 (i.e. a standard Yahoo league) it had been around 5.65% that won their league, despite drafting David Johnson No. 1 overall.
Again, not great but also, you know, not dead.
Hold that thought for a moment. This will seem like a weird detour, even for me, but go with me for a second.
I can’t remember if I’ve told this story before, but when I was younger (like much younger), I was actually a very, very good tennis player. When I was in high school, I was ranked in the state of Texas as a junior, was the first freshman in 35 years to win the division singles title, was the No. 1 seed on my high school team that finished third in the state my junior year, etc. etc. I was basically good enough to have either played at a bad Division I school or a really, really good Division II or Division III school. I got college offers, etc. etc. I got burned out my senior year and gave it up, but here’s the reason I tell you this story.
I didn’t have a ton of great physical skills. Oh, I had some for sure. My father was a Division I tennis player at the University of Denver, so I got something from him, but trust me here. I grew up in Texas. They grow ‘em big down there. I was a solid athlete, but nothing to write home about.
But I had one thing – and really just one thing – other guys with much more physical skills than I had, didn’t have.
I was an incredibly stubborn pain in the ass.
You hit the ball 15 times. I hit it back 16. I almost never hit “winners.” What I was able to do was have the mental focus to get to everything, and I mean everything. Wherever you hit it, I got to it and hit it back. I was incredibly consistent. I was able to stay in my game no matter what type of game my opponent played and, eventually, the other guy would get frustrated, try some hero shot and miss. Point for me. Over and over again. I forced a zillion unforced errors. I just never gave up on a point, game or match.
Stubborn.
It’s a skill that drives my wife (and bosses, if I am being honest) nuts, but it’s also the reason I have basically everything in my life. Nothing has ever been given to me. I heard “no” so many times it would make your head spin. ESPN turned me down multiple times. Early in my career, Rotoworld hired me, then fired me. You think ESPN embraced fantasy sports and put it front and center right when I walked through the doors in 2007? As ESPN’s SVP said to the entire content team in front of me on my last day there, I dragged ESPN kicking and screaming into the world of fantasy sports. You think they put me on TV the first time I asked? Or the hundredth? Exactly. On and on I could go.
I have very few skills in this world, but one of them is an undying stubbornness that I refuse to give up. A core belief system that if it didn’t work this time, it will the next time. Or the time after that. Or the time after that. Or however long it takes.
Whatever I do, however I do it, I may not always succeed, but if I fail, it will NEVER be because I didn’t try hard enough. In any situation there are always factors you can’t control, but the one thing that is always up to you — and only you — is your level of effort.
How much YOU put into it.
As for me? I never quit. Ever.
Now, because the man upstairs has a sense of humor, I’ve got multiple children that inherited that trait from me and will argue with my wife and I until the cows come home, but the point here is… very simply… you could do a lot worse in life than to just follow Jim Valvano’s powerful message.
“Don’t give up. Don’t ever give up.”
Did you see Jellyroll at the Country Music Awards last year? I can’t possibly do his speech justice (watch this, it’s an amazing 30 seconds) – but during it he says: “I wanna tell you the windshield is bigger than the rearview mirror for a reason. Because what’s in front of you is so much more important than what’s behind you!”
Which brings us back to fantasy football.
I get it. It’s a game, it’s not nearly on the level of a job, a relationship or anywhere close to what Jim Valvano was dealing with when he uttered that famous phrase. Not trying to say it is.
But you’re here for a reason. You spent months in the offseason thinking about this season. Mock drafting, reading, watching, listening, doing research and planning for the draft. And I don’t want you to just throw away all those months or work and hope and excitement because of a few bad breaks.
Hell, I have a great dynasty team in a deep 12 team league with 25 man rosters that I have spent a few years carefully building. It is among the favorites to win it all this year. And it’s a team with both Christian McCaffrey and Cooper Kupp. (But not Jordan Mason. Sigh.). Not great!
But am I throwing in the towel? Absolutely not. I’m currently in third and I believe I will be okay. But if I start dropping, I will deal depth, future picks or do what I have to, so I can continue to compete.
And if you’re reading this, it means that, as we head into Week 3, you’re like me. You still want to play. You still have some hope.
And I’m here to tell you …
You’re damn right you do.
Fantasy football changes every week, every game, sometimes every practice report.
There was a meme that was going around on X/Twitter the other day. It went something like, “Me after Week 1 with Cooper Kupp on my team: I have the best team ever! I’m winning it all!”
Then, “Me after Week 2 with Cooper Kupp on my team: I’m dead. My season is over.”
So, I’m here to try and change your mindset.
Are all the injuries not a big deal?
No. It sucks.
But it’s also an opportunity.
An amazing one at that.
I’ve written a version of this before, but it bears repeating.
Fantasy football has given you – that’s right – GIVEN YOU – a great gift.
It’s given you a chance.
A chance at greatness.
It’s easy to win when your team stays healthy. When your Week 1 pickup last year turns out to be Puka Nacua or Kyren Williams. When you have the lowest points against in your league. That’s easy. Anyone can win that way.
But the person who wins their league after losing Christian McCaffrey? Or two or three of their first four picks? Or a chunk of their team?
A person that can win after surviving THAT?
That person is a legend.
The task is the same. It’s all about how you approach it.
This isn’t a problem, it’s an opportunity.
An opportunity for greatness.
This is your chance to be a legend and those don’t come along very often.
So what are you waiting for?
You’ve got a 5.65% chance. Make it count and LFG.
Let’s get to it.
Before we fully dive in, a reminder to check out Fantasy Football Happy Hour every single day wherever you get your podcasts, on the NFL on NBC YouTube page and at 3 p.m. ET (and then on demand) on Peacock. And this Sunday, be sure to check out Fantasy Football Pregame from 11 a.m. to 1 p.m. ET on both Peacock and the NFL on NBC YouTube channel, where we answer more questions than any other pregame show. And then of course I’ll see you Sunday night at 7 p.m. ET for Football Night in America on NBC and Peacock as we get you ready for Chiefs vs. Falcons on SNF.
And if you need a subscription to Peacock plus some tools, advice and customized ranks to help you on your epic comeback, check out my bundle site, RotoPass.com, which combines six great sites (including FantasyLife+) for about $2 a week. If fantasy success isn’t worth $2 a week to you, what are you even doing here?
Thanks, as always, to my producer Damian Dabrowski for his help at various points in this column. Here we go.
Quarterbacks I Love in Week 3
Kyler Murray vs. Detroit
Did you know that the full name of the Heisman Trophy is actually the Heisman Memorial Trophy? Or that when you win an Oscar, you actually are getting an Academy Award for Merit? Many well-known trophies and honors have much longer official names. It’s the same with my 2024 Ride or Die, which I gave to Kyler Murray before the season. The actual name of the 2024 Ride Or Die is the 2024 Ride Or Die I Told You! Shoulda Listened to Me! Kyler Murray Is Balling Out and Your Old Pal Matty B Called It! So Suck It! SUCK IT! SUCK IIIIIIIIIIITTTTT! Maybe a little wordy, sure, but it’s a fitting name because through the first two weeks of the season, Murray is QB3, has yet to turn the ball over and is averaging 11.6 YPC on the way to 50-plus rushing yards in each game so far. Now, he faces a Lions defense that is currently ranked as a bottom 12 pass defense and one that, since the start of last season, is allowing the fifth-most PPG to quarterbacks. In a game with the highest game total of the week (51.5), I say Murray has another big game on Sunday. I also say this is the last you hear me gloat about picking Kyler Murray as my 2024 Ride Or Die. Until next week. Or, honestly, in like the first quarter after his first big play. I’m kind of obnoxious about it. Regardless, Murray is my QB2 this week.
Joe Burrow vs. Washington
Guys like Kyle Shanahan and Dave Canales get a lot of credit for being quarterback gurus … you know, supposed QB savants who can make any quarterback productive. (Well, Canales did pre-Bryce Young, at least.) But how about some love for my Washington Commanders defense, too? This is a unit that can make any quarterback look not just productive, but great. Through two weeks, Washington is allowing the highest passer rating and the second-highest TD rate to quarterbacks. And both Baker Mayfield and Daniel Jones finished as top six quarterbacks when they faced the Commanders. If you want even more of a sample size, try this: dating back to last season, eight of the last 10 quarterbacks to face Washington have posted at least 18 fantasy points. Cincinnati has the highest implied team total in Week 3 and Joe Burrow will play a big part in putting up all those points. Joey B is QB5 this week.
RELATED: Matthew Berry’s positional rankings for Week 3
Brock Purdy at Los Angeles Rams
New theory: Aaron Donald was so ripped and muscular because he spent years carrying the entire Rams defense. The evidence to support my theory? The post-Donald Rams have given up 66 points in just two games. Opposing quarterbacks are just picking them apart. In Week 2, Kyler Murray put up a PERFECT passer rating on the Rams and, through the first two weeks of the season, they are allowing a league-high 9.9 yards per pass attempt. The Rams are also allowing passing touchdowns at the third-highest rate. Even without the services of Deebo Samuel, I have Brock Purdy as a top 10 quarterback against the Rams.
Others receiving votes: I did not have Derek Carr emerging as a fantasy superstar on my 2024 BINGO card. But it’s primarily because I don’t play BINGO, okay? I mean, seriously, how old do you think I am? Rude. Anyway, Klint Kubiak deserves all the praise and the Saints are fully legit. Through two weeks, Carr leads all quarterbacks in passer rating, YPA, touchdown passes and deep ball rate. That last one is especially important against the Eagles, who have allowed the second-highest passer rating this season on deep passes. … Teams facing the Chiefs this season are averaging 38.5 pass attempts per game, third-most in the league. The Chiefs have also allowed the second-most passing yards against so far this season. That sets up well for Kirk Cousins, who obviously started to find his way in the Atlanta offense late on Monday night. By the way, Cousins’ Week 2 aDOT was 8.1, which was a vast improvement over his 5.4 aDOT in Atlanta’s opener. … I definitely wouldn’t start him this week until we see it, but why do I think Andy Dalton is going to completely ball out for Carolina this week?
Quarterbacks I Hate in Week 3
Justin Herbert at Pittsburgh
CBS should broadcast this game in grainy, black-and-white. And without sound but just someone holding signs between plays. Because this is going to be 1920’s football at its … finest? Worst? One of them. The point is: it’s going to be ugly, especially from a fantasy perspective. The 36-point game total is the lowest in Week 3, and that might even be generous considering the Steelers and Chargers have given up a combined 29 points so far in four total games. Both the Chargers and Steelers rank top three in rush rate through two weeks, so there won’t be much in the way of new-timey forward passing. In fact, so far this season, Justin Herbert is averaging 23 pass attempts and 137 passing yards per game. Barf. He also showed up on the injury report this week and he’s planning on wearing an old timey leather helmet with no face mask in this game. Well, he should. That last fact isn’t true but this one is: he’s outside my top 20 at the position in Week 3.
Trevor Lawrence at Buffalo
Last week, the Jaguars’ home stadium was temporarily changed from EverBank Stadium to TrEverBank Stadium. It may go down as the worst stadium naming decision since Enron Field. Trevor Lawrence hasn’t scored 18-plus fantasy points since Week 13 of last season, and through two weeks of this season, he has a completion rate of just 51% and he’s tied for the sixth-highest off-target rate (13.7%). Over the same time period, the Bills are allowing the fifth-fewest yards per completion. Buffalo is also allowing the seventh-lowest passer rating, despite facing two quarterbacks so far in Kyler Murray and Tua Tagovailoa who are more prolific passers than Lawrence. Until we see some improvement, Jacksonville should change their home field name to NEverBank Stadium. Either way, this week he’s at Buffalo and nowhere near my starting lineup. He’s outside my top 20 this week.
Running Backs I Love in Week 3
Jordan Mason at Los Angeles Rams
For years, I’ve tried to push fantasy news, discussion and debate into more “mainstream” sports coverage. Not everyone has been willing to listen. But now, the debate shows simply have to talk fantasy football. Think about it: they can debate Jordan-versus-LeBron AND then segue right into a debate about whether Jordan is the greatest running back in fantasy football. It’s hot take perfection. Look, I’m not quite ready to say Jordan is the best back in fantasy, but Jordan Mason is clearly an RB1 in fantasy while filling in for Christian McCaffrey. Mason is RB7 so far on the season and is averaging 25 touches in his two starts along with an 81% snap rate. He also has 10 red zone rushes through two weeks, second-most in the NFL. Over the same two-week timeframe, the Rams are allowing 5.0 YPC and 154 rushing yards per game to backs. They have also allowed 25-plus fantasy points in each game. Jordan is the GOAT. (And by GOAT I mean a high-end RB1 in Week 3, of course.)
Zach Charbonnet vs. Miami
With Kenneth Walker III out last week, Zach Charbonnet saw a 95% snap rate and handled 100% of Seattle’s RB touches. In Charbonnet’s four career NFL games as a lead back, he is now averaging 19.5 touches and has an 11.6% target share. This week the Seahawks will see a Miami defense that, through the first two weeks of the season, has allowed the sixth-most fantasy points to running backs. If Walker is still out with an oblique injury (he missed Wednesday’s practice), Charbonnet needs to be in all lineups as a top 12 play.
And by the way, if you lost CMC and Ken Walker III and a bunch of other players and just want to ignore my open and throw it all away, you can start another league. That’s right. At Guillotine Leagues you can start a league ANY WEEK OF THE SEASON. Premise is very simple. Draft a team like normal, set your starting lineup and every week, the lowest scoring team in the league gets cut. Their season is over. And all their players go back into the free agent pool. Because you don’t play head to head but rather against the entire league, you can start a league whenever you want. All you need is one more league member than weeks left in the season. (You can also do a league with less people. Like you could start a league this week with seven people. It would just end whenever one team remains). Oh and it’s 100% FREE. Why not give it a try?
Tony Pollard vs. Green Bay
These days it seems like the only thing Titans head coach Brian Callahan likes doing more than yelling at Will Levis is giving the ball to Tony Pollard. Through two games, Pollard is averaging 20.5 touches per game, has handled 77% of Tennessee’s RB carries and his 18.5% target share is top five among all backs. Pollard’s usage is unlikely to decrease this week with Tyjae Spears being day-to-day with an ankle injury. He also has a nice matchup against a Packers defense that so far this season has allowed the seventh-most fantasy points to backs. Pollard is a top 20 RB play for me this week.
Others receiving votes: Through two weeks, the Colts have allowed the most rushing yards in the NFL. With Caleb Williams still a ways off from figuring things out, the Bears are likely to be run-heavy against the Colts on Sunday. That’s good news for D’Andre Swift managers. So far this season, Swift has a 67% snap rate and has nabbed 76% of Chicago’s RB touches. … Alvin Kamara and J.K. Dobbins have both rushed for 80-plus yards and a score against the Carolina Panthers so far this season. In fact, the Panthers have allowed the second-most rush yards to running backs this season. Yes, it turns out that teams run a lot after they go up by 150 points on you. So yeah, give me some Zamir White against the Panthers this week. … It’s early in the season, but the Giants rank bottom five in both rush yards and receiving yards allowed to running backs. Pierre Strong, Jr. is dealing with a hamstring injury, which should mean even more snaps for Jerome Ford and D’Onta Foreman against the Giants on Sunday if you are FLEX hunting. … Zero WR strategy has been around for a while in fantasy football, but my Washington Commanders are the first real football team I’ve seen try it. Through two games, Austin Ekeler leads the team in receiving yards. He also has a 13% target share. The Commanders are 7.5-point underdogs on the road in Cincinnati this week, so Ekeler should continue to get work in the passing game. … In the same game, I am very high on Zack Moss this week. The same game script that is good for Ekeler may be even better for Moss. Through two weeks, Moss has taken 75% of Cincinnati’s RB rushes and 100% of the goal line carries. By the way, versus running backs so far this season, Washington ranks bottom 10 in YPC allowed. Who says we’re not a top 10 team in anything?
Running Backs I Hate in Week 3
Rachaad White vs. Denver
Rachaad White is averaging 2.0 YPC on the 2024 season. That’s not good (hashtag: analysis). I mean, think of it this way … Rachaad White is 6-feet tall. If he stood at the line of scrimmage, held the football above his helmet and simply fell forward, he’d average MORE yards per carry than he’s currently running for. Ooof. Perhaps for reasons that are obvious, White is only getting 60% of Tampa’s RB carries so far this season. And now this week White gets a Denver team that has the second-highest success rate against rush plays so far on the season.
Aaron Jones vs. Houston
Aaron Jones has to be feeling comfortable already in a Vikings jersey because last week his backup (Ty Chandler) got more carries than he did. Ahhhhhhh … just like the Green Bay days, Aaron. Feels like home. But against the Texans, even a full workload might not amount to much for Jones. Through two games, Houston is allowing a league-low 2.3 YPC to running backs and the third-fewest points to the position. The Texans are also giving up just 4.7 yards per reception to backs, which is fifth-best in the league. I have Jones outside my top 20 at the position in Week 3.
Devin Singletary at Cleveland
After last week’s loss to the Commanders dropped the Giants to 0-2, Devin Singletary said, “we just have to use this as fuel.” This is amazing news! If Giants losses are fuel, soon the world will have abundant and free energy! Hooray! The planet is saved! Thanks, Giants! Thanks for stinking at football. Now for the bad news: if you are a Devin Singletary fantasy manager, the future is still bleak. At least the immediate/Week 3 future because the Browns present a very tough matchup. Since the start of last season, teams facing Cleveland are averaging the sixth-fewest rush attempts per game and, last week, the Browns held Travis Etienne to 58 total yards. The Giants also have the second-lowest implied team total in Week 3. Get ready to fuel up.
Pass Catchers I Love in Week 3
Ja’Marr Chase vs. Washington
Ja’Marr Chase is not happy. And for good reason. The Bengals haven’t given him the contract he deserves and Cincinnati is off to a winless start to the season. It all boiled over last week when he got an unsportsmanlike conduct penalty against the Chiefs for “abusive language” directed at an official. But I have something that’s better than winning football games, better even than a $140 million contract … I have … Ja’Marr Chase ranked as WR1 in Week 3! Whaddaya say, Ja’Marr? Turn that frown upside down? Okay, maybe later. Perhaps the excitement of this news will take a bit to set in. Anyway, Chase’s WR1 ranking this week has a ton to do with the matchup. So far this season, Washington has allowed the most fantasy points to wide receivers and the most receiving touchdowns. Top wide receivers have simply done whatever they want against the Commanders. Mike Evans put up a 5-61-2 line on the way to 23.1 fantasy points. Chris Godwin went for 8-83-1 and 22.3 fantasy points. And rookie Malik Nabers posted 28.7 fantasy points on 10 catches for 127 yards and a score. Chase should be a shoo-in for a performance of 20-plus points in Week 3. And maybe even a smile, too.
Brandon Aiyuk at Los Angeles Rams
It seems Brandon Aiyuk needed just one week to get back into the flow of the offense. In Week 1 his snap rate was 60%; in Week 2 it went up to 88%. This week – with Deebo Samuel out – it might just be 100%. This season, Samuel has a team-high 29% target share. Much of that work will now go Aiyuk’s way. And don’t forget: in Aiyuk’s five games last season with eight-plus targets, he averaged 20.3 PPG. Aiyuk also has a very positive matchup this week, facing a Rams defense that so far this season has allowed the most yards and most touchdowns on deep passes. Aiyuk is a top 10 WR for me this week.
DeVonta Smith at New Orleans
I know the concept of throwing the ball, and catching the ball, is a raw subject right now in the city of Philadelphia. But I do not want to talk about Nick Sirianni calling a passing play, and then Saquon Barkley dropping the pass, which subsequently led to the Eagles collapsing in humiliating fashion at home on Monday night on national TV, and causing me to lose to Producer Damian in our show league, The League of Assholes, because he was down 11.5 to me and had Kirk Cousins remaining. So, I’m not even going to bring it up. Instead, I want to talk about Eagles pass catcher DeVonta Smith taking on the Saints in a game that has Week 3’s second-highest game total at 49.5. Since the start of last season, the Saints are allowing the fifth-most yards per game to the slot, while Smith has seen 50% of his targets so far this season come in the slot. Smith will also continue to see a lot of extra work with A.J. Brown out of the lineup. Last week – sans Brown – Smith got a 34.5% target share, including two end zone targets. Smith is a top 10 wide receiver in Week 3.
Brock Bowers vs. Carolina
Brocktober has arrived early. Brock Bowers is the only tight end in the NFL who has posted two games with six-plus receptions this season, and his 25% target share is second on the Raiders. Now he faces a Panthers team that has allowed the third-most fantasy points to tight ends. The Panthers – among all the other terrible accomplishments they’ve had so far this season – are also the only team to allow multiple touchdowns to the TE position. Bowers is my Week 3 TE3 and I’ve already admitted he’s my biggest miss this preseason as I faded him based on his QB play, expected run-first offense and lots of target competition. I was wrong, wrong, wrong but if you start Bowers this week you’ll be right, right, right.
Others receiving votes: Through two games, the Cardinals are allowing the fifth-highest catch rate to wide receivers. So I love the matchup for Jameson Williams against Arizona. He has at least a 20% target share in both games so far this season, as well as four red zone targets in Week 2. The Lions also have the second-highest implied team total in Week 3. … It’s not quite as dramatic or profanity-laden as HBO’s “Succession,” but the Tyler Lockett succession plan seems to be moving along in Seattle. So far this season, Jaxon Smith-Njigba is playing more snaps and running more routes than Lockett. JSN even got a team-high 37% target share in Week 2 and saw his aDOT rise from 3.0 to 10.8. This week Smith-Njigba faces a Miami defense that, since the start of last season, is allowing the fourth-highest catch rate to the slot. … So far this season, Minnesota is tied for the most receptions allowed on deep passes. The Vikings have also allowed a 75% catch rate on deep passes, fourth-highest in the league. That all sets up well this week for Tank Dell, who has a 13.4 aDOT on the season with 45% of his targets coming on deep balls. … Look, I’m not saying bet the house on a Carolina Panthers player, but there’s reason to have some positivity regarding Adam Thielen in Week 3. In Andy Dalton’s only start of 2023, Thielen put up a 11-145-1 line. Thielen will also be facing a Raiders defense that, through two weeks, has allowed the seventh-most yards to the slot. … After Cooper Kupp was injured last week, Jordan Whittington ran 62% of his routes out of the slot. Whittington also showed in the preseason that he can produce in this offense, bringing in 11 receptions on 17 targets for 126 yards in two games. Best of all: he’s another Jordan the debate shows can yell about this week. … Maybe the Patriots think they still have Gronk on their roster, maybe not. What I do know is that through two weeks, New England leads the league in TE targets share (42.6%), with Hunter Henry earning a 32% share on the season. … Mike Gesicki is more than a guy who stinks at doing The Griddy. He also might just be the Bengals first fantasy-relevant tight end since Tyler Eifert. So far this season, Gesicki leads the Bengals in target share (20.6%) and has an end zone target in both games.
Pass Catchers I Hate in Week 3
Michael Pittman vs. Chicago
In both of his games this season, Michael Pittman has less than five receptions and fewer than 35 receiving yards. He’s also averaging an abysmal 7.4 YPR, and his catch rate is only 47%. Also, the Colts are fifth in rush rate inside the 10-yard line this season, leading in part to Pittman having a single red zone target so far in 2024. Okay, small sample size. It’s just two bad games. Except … it isn’t. Dating back to last season, Pittman now has five consecutive games with fewer than 12 fantasy points. I have Pittman down at WR28 in Week 3.
Jaylen Waddle at Seattle
In three career games with Skylar Thompson under center, Jaylen Waddle is averaging 11.8 PPG. He also has less than 45 receiving yards in two of those games. Yeah, you could say that when it comes to Waddle’s fantasy production, the Skylar’s his limit. Yes, that was terrible … but it was supposed to be bad … bad like Waddle will be in fantasy this week! (Yeesh, people just don’t get cutting-edge comedy these days.) Where was I … ah, yes, insightful fantasy analysis. This season Seattle is allowing the third-lowest completion rate on deep passes, which is another reason to be down on Waddle in Week 3 – as is the fact that Miami has a bottom 10 implied team total against the Seahawks. Waddle is outside my top 30 at wide receiver in Week 3.
Terry McLaurin at Cincinnati
So yeah, back to Washington’s Zero WR strategy … it’s not going great! McLaurin is averaging 4.9 yards per reception and only two of his eight receptions have gained more than 10 yards. A huge reason for that? Jayden Daniels has the lowest aDOT among all starting quarterbacks, at an almost unfathomably low 4.6. And now McLaurin has a tough matchup with the Bengals. Cincinnati is allowing the fourth-fewest receiving yards to wide receivers and receivers facing the Bengals this season have the third-lowest aDOT at 7.7. I’m only playing McLaurin in the deepest of leagues. He’s my WR37.
Dalton Schultz at Minnesota
In my preseason Love-Hate column, I put Dalton Schultz on the Hate List and wrote: “How much upside do you really think he has in a balanced Houston offense in which he’ll be the fourth option in the passing game behind Stefon Diggs, Nico Collins and Tank Dell? And heck, depending on the week, behind Joe Mixon, too?” Well, two weeks into the season, the answer is: essentially zero upside. And Schultz actually has realized the worst of my fears, because he IS fifth on the Texans in targets. Schultz has just six targets all season, a target share under 10% and has yet to see a red zone or end zone target. I have him outside my top 15 at the position in Week 3.
