Fantasy Football Waiver Wire, Week 4: Jauan Jennings Goes Off

Quarterback

Sam Darnold, Vikings (29%)

Darnold’s breakout is as legit as it gets. Before MNF, he ranks eighth in EPA per play, sixth in completion percent over expected, and fourth in PFF passing grade. His eight touchdowns and 10.3 percent touchdown rate both lead the NFL. Kevin O’Connell also trusts Darnold enough to let him sling it.

The Vikings have a +3% pass rate over expected this year. Their defense has held two-of-three opponents to single-digit points. Had they played in more competitive games, Darnold’s numbers would be through the roof.

Andy Dalton, Panthers (4%)

It took exactly one drive for Dalton to prove that he’s still got it and Dave Canales’s system works. Dalton threw for 319 yards and three touchdowns with no interceptions and just two sacks last week. Diontae Johnson set a career-high in receiving yards (122), Chuba Hubbard came two yards shy of his career-best of 57 yards, and rookie Xavier Legette went for 42 yards, seven more than his previous high set in Week 1. Most importantly, the Panthers went from hiding their quarterback under Bryce Young to making him the focal point of the offense with Dalton. Carolina went from a -10% pass rate over expected in Weeks 1 and 2 to +6% in Week 3.

Justin Fields, Steelers (16%)

Fields has been transformed from the high-variance QB1 he was in Chicago into a low-ceiling QB2 with Pittsburgh, but that has value too. The young quarterback’s sack rate has fallen from 12.4 percent in three seasons with the Bears to 7.4 percent this year. He threw his first pick of the year in Week 3 and his interception rate of 1.3 percent is still well below his career average. Fields’ rushing output is down, but it’s still strong for a quarterback. He is averaging 9.3 attempts for 27 yards and .3 touchdowns on the ground.

Fields has the third-most carries among quarterbacks but neither the passing output nor the long runs have shown up. He qualifies as a best-of-the-rest option at QB. I wouldn’t bid more than a dollar on him and have the players listed below as equally viable options for Week 4.

Others receiving votes: Bo Nix, Malik Willis, Daniel Jones

Running Back

Chuba Hubbard, Panthers (52%)

Hubbard is rostered in just over half of Yahoo leagues so I’ll be brief. As previously mentioned, the Panthers are good now. His role also improved again in Week 3. He saw 68 percent of Carolina’s carries after logging carry shares of 59 percent in Week 2 and 38 percent in Week 1. Hubbard turned this into 21 carries for 114 yards plus a 5/51/1 receiving line.

Hubbard is back on the menu until Jonathon Brooks is activated from the PUP list.

Bucky Irving, Bucs (35%)

Rachaad White’s grip on the starting role can only last so long. White is averaging a dreadful 2.1 yards per carry and NFL Next Gen Stats has him losing 1.5 yards per attempt versus his expected output. Irving is averaging 6.2 yards per carry and NGS has him running roughly at expectation. The rookie also out-carried White for the first time in Week 3. He earned nine attempts to White’s six. Irving is seeing enough work as it is to register on the RB4 radar.

Now we’re getting comments from his coaches saying he will get more work going forward. Irving might not immediately fill an RB2 role on fantasy rosters, but he strikes me as a clear long-term hold over the first half of the year. I’d be willing to spend up to a quarter of my FAAB budget to land him.

Cam Akers, Texans (46%)

Joe Mixon and Dameon Pierce both missed Week 3 with injuries. Neither back practiced last week, so Akers could draw the start in Week 4 as well. Akers dominated the carries for Houston in Week 3, seeing 9-of-11 backfield attempts. He also scored a receiving touchdown on his only target. A home game versus the Jaguars should set Akers up to see a far better game script than he did in the Texans’ blowout loss to the Vikings last week.

Emanuel Wilson, Packers (3%)

The Packers gave Wilson more work in Week 3 and he passed the eye test with flying colors.

Wilson saw 12 carries to Jacobs’ 14. He was targeted twice compared to just one look in the passing game for Jacobs. Wilson has been a small sample star so far. He ranks 15th in both rush yards over expected per carry and PFF rushing grade. He has been even better as a receiver, averaging 1.7 yards per route run. Wilson is an elite handcuff and may work his way into some standalone value.

Braelon Allen, Jets (36%)

Allen is our next Tony Pollard. He is PFF’s No. 1 graded runner through three weeks and is averaging 4.1 yards after contact per carry. He wasn’t known as a pass-catcher coming out of Wisconsin but is averaging 1.7 yards per route run. His carry share has risen from six percent in Week 1 to 37 percent last week. He’ll spike for some unpredictable FLEX-worthy games as a backup and would be a 100 percent FAAB player if Breece Hall ever went down.

Others receiving votes: Alexander Mattison, Roschon Johnson

Wide Receiver

Jauan Jennings, 49ers (32%)

The 49ers lost Christian McCaffrey before Week 1 and were without Deebo Samuel and George Kittle for Week 3. Their plan: Make the whole plane out of Jauan Jennings. The results: Pretty good. Jennings earned 40 percent of the 49ers’ targets and 47 percent of their air yards versus the Rams. He posted an 11/175/3 receiving line and the 49ers scored 24 points. Brandon Aiyuk saw more first-read targets than Jennings and we shouldn’t expect his efficiency to hold up at these levels, but Jennings is undoubtedly the top add at receiver.

Quentin Johnston, Chargers (45%)

The loss of Justin Herbert, who attempted to play through a high-ankle sprain in Week 3 but couldn’t finish the game, is a blow to Johnston’s fantasy outlook. The more important factor, however, is his talent. Johnston is succeeding as a downfield option and a red zone weapon. He is averaging 2.1 yards per route run and has accounted for a whopping 47 percent of the Chargers’ end zone targets. His efficiency, role, and pedigree all support the notion that Johnston will have fantasy value this year.

Demario Douglas, Patriots (7%)

The Pats made getting Pop Douglas the ball a priority in Week 3. The second-year wideout was running enough routes in the first two games, but the team wasn’t scheming him looks. He had two first-read targets and an eight percent first-read target share after two weeks. That jumped to a 44 percent share of the first-read looks, good for seven such targets, versus the Jets. He also saw an uptick in routes and his targets came further downfield at a more fantasy-friendly aDOT of six. New England isn’t getting anything going on offense, capping Douglas’s ceiling at WR3/4 numbers for now. He should improve his receiving numbers if (when) Drake Maye takes over.

Jalen Tolbert, Cowboys (4%)

Tolbert’s biggest asset is that he isn’t Brandin Cooks. Though his mark of 1.2 yards per route run is underwhelming, it’s not hanging out in the basement with Cooks’ .7 YPRR. His PFF receiving grade of 63.3 is also nothing to write home about. Still, it easily outclasses Cooks at 56.4. Tolbert is running 80 percent of the routes for a Dallas offense that leads the NFL in passing yards and is easily pulling ahead of Cooks as the better receiver. He’ll give us some useable fantasy performances and won’t put a dent in the FAAB budget.

Michael Wilson, Cardinals (9%)

Wilson topped out at two targets in each of his first two games this year but improved his target total to nine in Week 3. He operated more as an underneath option for Kyler Murray and his aDOT dropped from 13.5 over the first two weeks to 7.8 on Sunday. He also ran a season-high 13 routes from the slot. With Trey McBride banged up, Wilson could continue to operate as an outlet for Murray, boosting his target floor going forward.

Others receiving votes: Wan’Dale Robinson, Allen Lazard, Darnell Mooney, Jakobi Meyers

Tight End

Cole Kmet, Bears (41%)

The Bears stuttered the Gerald Everett experiment in Week 3 and turned the lights back on at the Cole Kmet plant in the process. Kmet flipped the route share in his favor, running a route on 71 percent of Caleb Williams’ dropbacks. Kmet left Everett in the dust with 10 catches for 97 yards and a touchdown. We’ve likely seen the last of Everett as a starter, making Kmet a viable TE2 once again.

Cade Otton, Bucs (16%) & Tyler Conklin, Jets (14%)

I’m grouping these two together because the argument for both is identical. Conklin leads all tight ends in route rate and Otton is third. Aaron Rodgers is fourth in EPA per play and Baker Mayfield is 11th. You can get every tight end route on teams with good quarterback play for a single FAAB dollar if you simply give up any semblance of a ceiling at the position.

Others receiving votes: Noah Fant, Colby Parkinson, Jordan Akins