Hoop heads! We’re back with more breakouts as we gear up for fantasy basketball draft season. We covered breakout guards on Monday and today, we’ll talk about the forwards who will level up for fantasy managers this season. The list entails some players who’ve made waves in fantasy already but are on the precipice of reaching All-Star or, perhaps, All-NBA status. Let’s break them down.
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Jalen Willams, SG/SF/PF, Oklahoma City Thunder
Putting J-Dub on this list is kind of cheating. He finished 40th in per-game value last season in category leagues. The efficiency has been a game-changer for Williams, as he’s sporting a ridiculous 53/40/81 shooting split through his first two seasons.
Williams taking over Josh Giddey’s secondary playmaking role opens up more usage, ball-handling and assist potential, too. If the playoffs are any indication of what to expect, Williams’ potential assists rose from 7.6 per game in the regular season to 9.6 in the playoffs. J-Dub is also a beast defensively, as he can guard multiple positions while averaging over a steal per game.
Williams is about to set career-high marks in his third year and it wouldn’t surprise me to see his ADP creep into the late-third round as we get closer to draft night. He’s a legit candidate to win Most Improved Player.
Jalen Johnson, SF/PF, Atlanta Hawks
This time last year, Johnson was on sleeper watch. Now, Johnson is very close to being a “too good to be a breakout” type of player. Johnson played just 56 games last year but posted career bests across eight categories. The injuries don’t concern me since he played in 70 games the year prior. Johnson offers fantasy managers a bit of everything, and his fourth-round ADP aligned with his top-50 finish last season. He was one of nine forwards/centers to average at least 3.5 assists with a usage rate below 20% last season.
Assuming his minutes remain in the mid-to-low 30s and he’s the second option on offense, Johnson’s usage rate will surely spike, leading to more chances to score and create. Johnson covers all the bases, offensively and defensively, so fantasy managers are in for another jump in production entering his fourth season.
Franz Wagner, SF/PF, Orlando Magic
Everything is pointing to a breakout for Orlando Magic wing Franz Wagner. The German forward is coming off a strong performance at the Paris Olympics, where he captured an All-Olympic second-team nod after averaging 18.5 points, 5.8 rebounds and 2.5 assists in Olympic play. He also got awarded a substantial extension this offseason and with good reason.
Wagner increased his scoring, rebounds, assists, free-throw attempts, steals and usage rate per game for the third consecutive year. His +3.5 estimated plus-minus (EPM) led all Magic starters last season and was 94th percentile among the league per dunksandthrees.com.
Like Williams, he hasn’t been named to an All-Star team, but this is the year it happens. Though Wagner recently struggled with his three-point shot, he’s hit at least 35% on 3s in his first two seasons as a pro. He’ll find his stroke, and in the meantime, he’ll continue being uber-efficient near the rim (67% last season) and likely draw more trips to the line, elevating his scoring numbers entering year four. A 23-6-4 line with strong peripherals and at least a steal per game is a reasonable leap for Wagner — a durable ascending player who hasn’t finished inside the top 70 in his career.
Jonathan Kuminga, PF, Golden State Warriors
Now that the Warriors are done playing lineup gymnastics with Jonathan Kuminga, he’s primed to make some noise heading into his fourth NBA season. It’s wild that Kuminga didn’t become a full-time starter until February — especially after averaging 20/6/2 with 59/40/80 shooting splits across the month of January. Kuminga’s talent is undeniable. It’s why the Warriors have been reluctant to trade him.
He turns 22 in October and still has some raw attributes, but he’s coming into his own as a dominant force in the paint. He’s athletically gifted and did a great job putting pressure on defenses within 10 feet of the rim last season. On those opportunities, Kuminga converted 62% of his shots. Extending his range has been a work in progress, but he’s attempted at least two 3s a game since he entered the league, shooting a career-best 37% in the 2022-2023 season.
He’s been in the lab all summer refining his handle, gaining more confidence in his 3-ball and “mastering” various offensive and defensive concepts — all things you want to hear. To top it off, Kuminga hasn’t been offered a max extension yet, so there is some financial motivation to show out this season. The uptick in scoring and rebounding is expected, given he’ll see 30+ minutes a night with at least a 23-25% usage rate. I also want to see a leap in stocks because that would unlock significant value for a player going in the early ninth round of fantasy drafts.
