We are a mere six weeks away from the Virginia Cavaliers basketball season tipping off! To start our ramp up to hoops season and to have some fun during the football bye week, I collected questions from fans on Twitter to answer across a pair of mailbags this week.
This is going to be a fascinating season to track for the UVA men’s basketball team. The roster is so incredibly new. There are so many unknowns from Tony Bennett’s future, to the team’s style of play and offensive scheme, and the seemingly countless players who are waiting to prove themselves.
Like it has been for a few years now, I suspect the goal for the men’s team – at least from an outsider’s perspective – is another top-four finish in the ACC and that elusive first win in the NCAA tournament since 2019.
Whether this team will reach that level is tough to say right now. With Tony Bennett at the helm, anything remains possible – Virginia fans know that. But does this group have enough talent, enough experience, enough scoring to make it happen?
In today’s and tomorrow’s mailbags, I’ll do my best to start answering those questions.
Who’s your guess for the starting lineup for game one of the season versus the final game? – @TonyBurnertt
If someone has a confident grasp of who will be starting against Campbell on November 6th, I’d love to hear it. This roster is so up in the air with so many players who could both start, or be out of the rotation by February.
Isaac McKneely is a starter. Duh.
After him, Blake Buchanan projects as the starting center. UVA could play small ball this year – I’ll get into that more in tomorrow’s edition – yet I think Buchanan at the five is where things will start. He might’ve come back down to earth after a fast start last fall. But I never sold my Buchanan stock.
Florida State transfer point guard Jalen Warley is, I think, the next most likely player to start – assuming he’s fully healthy in time for game one despite wearing a wrist brace in this video from the first official day of practice.
Are his shooting splits ugly? Yup. But he is a 6-foot-7, lanky defender who takes care of the ball, can get to the rim, and create for others. He’ll be Virginia’s best defender on the wing, will create turnovers, can make plays in transition, and has played three seasons of ACC basketball.
After those three, I think it’s a best-of-the-rest situation. TJ Power and Elijah Saunders could both start in a big lineup. Any of Dai Dai Ames, Taine Murray, or Andrew Rohde could be the third guard.
If I had to put money on it right now, my guess is the game one starting lineup is Warley, McKneely, Rohde, Saunders, and Buchanan.
I think Rohde is a much better player than he was for most of 2023-2024. That said, he’s the one I’m least confident about. I’m betting that Virginia values his ability to create offense and projects that he will be a better shooter in year two of ACC basketball. At his worst, he was borderline unplayable for stretches of last season. Here’s to hoping he’s more comfortable this go around.
I think Saunders is almost exactly what Tony Bennett wants in a power forward. He’s a gritty defender who does all the little things right, has a decent level of athleticism, and can shoot the rock. Power is an elite shooter, no doubt. But I need to see more than I did in his freshman season before he moves into the starting lineup.
Projecting the starting lineup for the final game given how uncertain the lineup is for game one is a fool’s errand. If Buchanan struggles, which he surely will at times given that he’s just a true sophomore being asked to start at center, UVA will go small either with a Power-Saunders frontcourt duo or with freshman Jacob Cofie. Anthony Robinson is another option as a pure center depending on where he is after a redshirt season last year.
If one of Murray, Rohde, Ames, or Ishaan Sharma don’t step up/show meaningful improvement as the third guard, then Saunders and Power could very well make a push to play together.
Historically, Bennett hasn’t liked to play big. But he has when it was necessary to get his five best players on the court. I think this could be another one of those years. That’s why, for now, I’ll say the end of year starting lineup is Warley-McKneely-Power-Saunders-Buchanan.
What do you think the rotation will be by February? – @ravenBadger3
I think McKneely, Warley, Buchanan, Power, and Saunders are rotational locks. Then it’s really a question of who has made a jump.
Is Rohde hitting a respectable number of threes and has he adapted to ACC basketball? Does Murray hit 40% from deep on higher volume? Can Ames clean up the turnovers while being a more sound defender and providing a scoring punch? Is Robinson legit playable depth at center despite being raw? Do Sharma, Cofie, and/or Bliss break through?
Those seven guys are probably who will make or break how good UVA is this season. Meanwhile, Power and Buchanan are due for sophomore jumps.
Best guess, those first five plus Robinson and two out of the three of Rohde, Murray, and Ames will make up the February rotation. Cofie, Sharma, and Bliss each will have opportunities to seize minutes and leap the guys ahead of them. It’ll be fun to see how the rotation progresses – I’m optimistic that a bunch of guys will get minutes throughout non-conference play.
We know iMac will average double digits. We likely need two or three more to do so. Who are they? Where do we get points from? – @BrianBailey22
Anybody remember the 2016-2017 season?
London Perrantes was UVA’s lone double digit scorer at 12.7 per game with five players averaging between 6.2 and 8.9 points. I’m more confident saying this year’s team will have no other double digit scorers than I am picking one or two others alongside McKneely.
If Power is starting-caliber from the jump, he’s probably the most likely guy to hit double figures because of his potential as a shooter. But I wouldn’t count Saunders or Buchanan out. Saunders can shoot it and could be a threat on the offensive glass, while I refuse to forget Buchanan’s 18-point night against Florida in his second career game.
That being said, I agree with the sentiment of this question that there is inherently uncertainty about how UVA is going to score this year. Offense doesn’t run itself, and Virginia is going to need a more diverse, spaced, and aggressive scheme to succeed.
How does one go about changing the offensive philosophy? – @why_kd
I actually don’t know if UVA is undergoing a complete philosophical shift. The scheme achieves the philosophy – I don’t envision any Virginia team under Bennett running an offense that doesn’t prioritize taking care of the ball, aim to grind opponents down, sacrifice good shots for better shots, and limit transition going in the other direction. Those are the leading offensive principles that make up UVA’s offensive philosophy.
I do think there will be schematic changes. Bennett has rolled out new offenses and adapted before. But will they be sufficient in facilitating better offense, and will the staff stick to experimentation if things don’t work immediately?
As for how it happens, I’ll simply say good coaches borrow and great coaches steal. The Wahoo staff is deep enough and all of them have watched and played more than enough basketball for there to be plenty of ideas there.
Whether it’s getting Isaiah Wilkins’ and Kyle Guy’s perspective after playing abroad, digging into what the best offenses in college basketball are doing, talking to coaching and playing friends or colleagues, or anything in between, there is a knowledge base there to tap into.
The ‘Hoos need to run in transition some more, but they also need to be more unpredictable in settled offense. Opponents have caught up to UVA’s offensive schemes, and the program hasn’t had the raw talent to make up for it. Diversifying the scheme, making it more perimeter based and less reliant on operating in the midrange, and finding new buttons to press will be crucial.
I am certain we will still see plenty of Virginia’s sides, inside triangle, and high ball screen offenses this season. I’m just hoping to see some new stuff implemented and consistently used throughout the entirety of the season.
We have heard rumors that the offense is going to speed up, how likely is this? – @804to808v2
I think it’s pretty likely. With the right guys, pushing in transition doesn’t sacrifice the principles of Bennett’s offensive philosophy. It’s also so much easier to attack unsettled defense than it is settled defense.
After last season’s putrid offensive output, I’d be shocked if UVA didn’t try to run more this season. Pace of play is a direct result of volume of transition, and I think that could be where we see the most drastic change for the ‘Hoos in the 2024-2025 season.
Warley can start transition and attack the paint. McKneely, Power, and Saunders can flood the wings as shooters. There are pieces there to make it work, Virginia just needs to commit to securing the ball and going and there should be points to be had.
That being said, UVA doesn’t need to be Alabama or North Carolina to have a better offense. UConn had the most efficient offense in the country last year and was 305th in average offensive possession length.
Running methodical offense or sets that take time to develop isn’t automatically inefficient. It’s more that the ‘Hoos have been too passive, too stuck in running in circles literally and figuratively until chucking up a late clock shot or counting on Reece Beekman to make something happen. Beekman is gone, and the UVA offense will need more schematic answers as a result.
Who will be the surprise player(s) on this team? – @guyncville
Ishaan Sharma is the trendy answer here. It sounds like he’s been balling out this fall and may have a legitimate role on this Virginia team, something that may come as a surprise for many.
He’s a polished shooter with size who has a quick release and could be a nice change-up pitch to bring in off the bench. Virginia doesn’t have a ton of guys who project as 40% shooters – nobody does, really. But Sharma is one who could.
I am a Christian Bliss believer. I’m looking forward to seeing the redshirt freshman take the floor for the first time. He’s probably the player most on the outside of the rotation right now. But he’s a higher ceiling point guard than Warley and Ames as a legit shooting threat. Will that matter this season? Probably not. But I could see him lighting Coppin State up for 15.
Who will end up being this year’s “glue guy”? – @JohnSchick
I think UVA fans will also love Saunders. That’s not a surprise, necessarily. But, yeah, I think he’ll be this team’s glue guy. He’s no Ryan Dunn, but he can be that athletic four that the Virginia defense requires. I’m curious to see how he does hedging ball screens more – he played a lot of drop coverage at San Diego State.
I also think he’s going to be a solid shooter who can get hot from time to time. He’s a high floor player who will do the right things, impact the game in a multitude of ways, and who can fit playing in different positions with various combinations of players around him.
Any thoughts on the women’s team? Is this the year we finally see them break through and snag a tourney bid? – @ConradFurlich
I’m fired up about the women’s team! I do think this is the year they break through.
Breaking news: Kymora Johnson is special. Coach Mox hit the transfer portal hard to rebuild the frontcourt. It’s still a young team. But the talent is there, the coaching is too, and Johnson and a string of other young players got invaluable experience last year.
We’ll have more women’s preseason coverage coming soon from our beat writer Corbin Lathrop!
Stay tuned to the blog for part two of this mailbag hitting the site tomorrow!
