Strange statistic proves Liverpool are the UNLUCKIEST team in English football

Given the manner of Liverpool’s eventual victory over West Ham in the League Cup on Wednesday night, you’d be forgiven for thinking the Hammers were a lower-league side.

Despite going 1-0 up through a rather unfortunate Jarell Quansah own goal, a majorly second-string Liverpool side ran out 5-1 winners. Goals from Diogo Jota, a subbed-on Mo Salah and Cody Gakpo saw to it for the Reds. However, the performances of the rotated-in Conor Bradley, Joe Gomez, Kostas Tsimikas, Wataru Endō, Curtis Jones, Darwin Nuñez and Federico Chiesa had Liverpool winning by the time other first-teamers saw the pitch.

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Afterwards, Liverpool were again drawn to play a Premier League outfit in the next round (Brighton, this time). As Michael Reid has pointed out, this will be Liverpool’s 18th Premier League opponent in the third and fourth round of the domestic cups dating back to the 2017-18 season. This is a nationally-leading stat, with Everton and Man City coming second-closest on 14.

This does somewhat go a way to explain why Liverpool have had comparatively little cup success in that period compared to their relative dominance in both English and European football. Jurgen Klopp’s men (at the time, of course) only reached three finals – 2021-22 FA Cup, 2021-22 and 2023-24 League Cup – winning them all when they managed to get there. But alongside the fact they reached three Champions League finals in the same time, it paints a bizarre picture.

Luck of the Liverpool draw

The literal luck of the draw, then, applies here. Liverpool crashed out in the third or fourth round in eight of the ten cup competitions that they didn’t win in that time period, all to Premier League sides. Their only non-victorious later-round knockouts came after beating Everton and Shrewsbury in the 2019-20 FA Cup and beating Lincoln and Arsenal in the 2020-21 League Cup.

Even more interestingly, in their double cup success year of 2021-22, three of their four early-round opponents were from the lower leagues (Shrewsbury Town, Cardiff City, Preston North End) whilst their sole Premier League opponents were just-promoted-and-soon-to-be-relegated Norwich City. It’s a fascinating pattern that suggests the ability to rotate and face ‘easier’ opponents as much as possible means energy can be intensified later in the competition.

Therefore, if Arne Slot wants to grab himself at least one trophy this season, the odds in the League Cup aren’t looking amazing. He was able to successfully rotate against a Premier League team this first time, but West Ham did have an opportunity to make it 2-2 and were only fully put to the sword when key starters came on. They also, vitally, have not had a great start to the season. Fourth Round opponents Brighton, meanwhile, have looked dangerous so far, taking points off title-challengers Arsenal and Manchester United.

As the old adage goes, might be best to focus on the league.

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