BLOOMINGTON, Ind. – This story continues a series that will run through the end of September and for much of October. Is Indiana better than each of its Big Ten opponents?
Nine categories were chosen so there can be no ambiguity on which team is better. There will be no ties in individual categories. Think of it like you would the Supreme Court.
The categories: Point guard play, free throw shooting, inside scoring, perimeter shooting, rebounding, perimeter defense, rim protection, how much proven Power Five talent is on the roster, and intangibles.
The daily series will cover both the men’s and women’s basketball teams, and it will alternate between the teams.
The four new West Coast Big Ten schools will be mixed in with the existing conference members. We start with Oregon.
The Ducks had their worst season since 1993 with an 11-21 record in 2024. Oregon won just two Pac-12 Conference games, its worst-ever finish in its former league.
Coach Kelly Graves led Oregon to the Final Four in 2019 and to the NCAA Tournament as recently as 2022, so the lineage of success is there.
Given the lack of success in 2024, the roster had mass turnover. There are seven transfers – five from Power Five schools. Given that, and their new conference digs, Oregon has a lot of unknowns to parse.
Here’s how the battle between the Hoosiers and Ducks shakes out.
• Point guard play – This was one area of emphasis for Oregon in rebuilding its roster. Oregon has three proven transfers who can handle the ball.
North Carolina transfer Deja Kelly is a three-time All-ACC standout who averaged 15.4 points over four excellent seasons in Carolina Blue. The 5-foot-8 graduate transfer averaged 3.2 assists in 2024.
Siena transfer Elisa Mevius averaged 12 points and 5.1 assists for the Saints. She had an impressive assist percentage of 27.8%.
BYU transfer Nani Falatea missed all but three games of the 2024 season. In the 2022-23 season, she averaged 15.3 points and 4.7 apg. Her assist percentage was an impressive 44.5%.
All of these Ducks are plus-defenders, and all are at least 5-8. How Oregon uses these guards is unknown yet.
Indiana has Chloe Moore-McNeil, a rock solid ball-handler and lockdown defender. Lexus Bargesser should also run the point at times. They’re both very good.
This is a tough call. It depends on whether Falatea restores her pre-injury production. We’ll say she does, which helps Oregon win this in a photo finish. Edge: Oregon.
• Free throw shooting – In terms of plus-70% free throw shooters who played regularly, both teams have three players who qualify.
The Hoosiers get the nod because Penn State transfer Shay Ciezki (90.2%) and Sydney Parrish (79.2%) are both better than the Ducks’ best returning free throw shooter – guard Sofia Bell (78.5%). Edge: Indiana.
• Inside scoring – Indiana lost Mackenzie Holmes, their all-time leading scorer, who averaged 19.8 points in 2024. However, Lilly Meister (3.7 ppg) is more than capable. With Holmes playing ahead of her, she didn’t get the minutes to compile big scoring numbers. But if you look at her per-40-minute production, Meister would have averaged 13.9 points.
Tennessee transfer Karoline Striplin (7.2 ppg) adds inside scoring for the Hoosiers.
Oregon returns huge 6-foot-8 center Phillipina Kyei (12.6 ppg), added 6-2 forward Alexis Whitfield (15.1 ppg) from UC-Santa Barbara and 6-4 forward Amina Muhammad (6.1 ppg) from Texas. Kyei is a two-year starter, and Whitfield is a fascinating addition. They help give Oregon the nod. Edge: Oregon.
• Perimeter shooting – None of the new or returning Ducks have a 3-point percentage above 36.7%. For Indiana, Yarden Garzon (42.2%), Moore-McNeil (40.9%) and Parrish (40%) all top 40%. Edge: Indiana.
• Rebounding – Kyei looms large over this category, just as she did with inside scoring. The Canadian averaged 11.9 rebounds in 2024. Whitfield also averaged 9.8 boards at UCSB.
While Meister was a better-per-40-minute rebounder than Holmes (10.3 for Meister, 9.6 for Holmes), the truth is that no Indiana player has proven with regular minutes that they can rebound like Oregon’s front line. Edge: Oregon.
• Perimeter defense – Indiana excels in this category. We’ll use defensive box-plus minus to demonstrate why. Anything above four is excellent, and Indiana has three players – Parrish (4.4), Bargesser (4.4) and Moore-McNeil (4.2) – who exceed that standard. The Ducks don’t have a single player to match that standard, much less three of them Edge: Indiana.
• Defense at the rim – Even though she’s 6-8, Kyei is not a dominant shot blocker as she swatted 1.2 per game in 2024. Even playing limited minutes, Meister (0.6 bpg) and Striplin (0.4 bpg) come close to the same production. However, Oregon’s addition of Muhammad (0.8 bpg) gives the Ducks the advantage. Edge: Oregon.
• Proven Power 5 ability on roster – The standard here is whether a player averaged 25 minutes or more at the Power Five level at their current or former school.
Garzon, Parrish, Moore-McNeil and Ciezki all make the cut for Indiana. Bell, Kelly and Kyei are the only qualifiers for Oregon. It should be noted that Falatea played 35 minutes per game for BYU in 2023, but at the time, the Cougars were in the West Coast Conference. Edge: Indiana.
• Intangibles – While the women play an 18-game schedule, as opposed to the 20-game men’s schedule, Oregon’s travel will still be a major disadvantage in the Big Ten race.
The bigger deal for the Ducks is whether its pieces will fit together. If everything falls into place, the Ducks could be very dangerous. However, it’s hard to fuse together that many new players at once.
They also have to learn to win together. That’s not an issue Indiana faces. The Hoosiers have won at a high rate together. Edge: Indiana.
• Verdict – Indiana just edges this one by a 5-4 count. This will be a fascinating matchup when Indiana goes out to Eugene, Ore., on Jan. 24. Normally, if a team has an edge in point guard and inside play, as we predict the Ducks might, they should win.
The Ducks may very well triumph, but Indiana has underlying fundamental advantages that can help carry the day, too – excellent defense, free throw shooting and perimeter shooting can even out disadvantages elsewhere.
