What’s more fun than second-guessing NFL coaches? Nothing, that’s what. So let’s do it every week, right here. We start with that classic coaching conundrum: Go for it on 4th down, or no?
The scenario: Sunday Night Football. Buffalo at Baltimore. The Bills receive the opening kickoff and begin marching up the field. On 4th and 1 at their own 39, the Bills opt to go for it … and Josh Allen converts with a three-yard rush. Then, three plays later, the Bills are once again facing a 4th-down question — this time, 4th and 2 at the 50-yard line.
Punt or go for it? Your call.
The case for punting: How many times do you want to throw your quarterback into the teeth of the defensive line, especially this early in the game? Plus, giving the ball to Baltimore at midfield, with Justin Tucker on the other sideline, is like handing the Ravens three points. Fold this hand and wait for some better cards.
The case for going for it: If you’re going to try to convert on fourth down in your own territory, why not go for it at midfield, especially four minutes into the game? On X, “4th down decision bot” gave the play a “STRONG” call of “Go for it,” noting that the play had a 57 percent chance of success, and increased Buffalo’s chances of winning from 42 to 45 percent.
—> BUF (0) @ BAL (0) BUF has 4th & 2 at the 50, Q1 11:09
Recommendation (STRONG): 👉 Go for it (+3.3 WP)
Actual play: 🏈🦵 S.Martin punts 37 yards to BLT 13, Center-R.Ferguson, fair catch by D.Harty. pic.twitter.com/1ZFdpyDvKP— 4th down decision bot (@ben_bot_baldwin) September 30, 2024
If you’re supposed to be the class of the AFC, you should be able to get two yards, any time, anywhere on the field.
The result: McDermott opted to punt, oddly enough, pinning the Ravens back at their own 13-yard line. Problem was, on the very next play, Baltimore’s Derrick Henry bulldozed 87 yards for a touchdown, and Baltimore would never trail again.
Effect on the game’s outcome: The punt didn’t set up Henry’s run; Buffalo could have pinned Henry in West Virginia and he still would’ve scored. But it was a flinch that would last the rest of the game. Just a few minutes later, in the second quarter, Buffalo again faced a 4th-and-1 on its own 39 … and this time, perhaps spooked and down 14-3, McDermott punted. And again, Baltimore converted that flinch into a touchdown.
McDermott addressed the first-quarter punt after the game. “Felt like just the feel of the game at that point it was too early to take a chance,” he said.
Was it?
Your Call: Should the Bills have punted in the first quarter vs. Baltimore?
Leave a comment below.
