It’s never too early to start thinking about the College Football Playoff field.
With this season’s playoff expanding to 12 teams, we’ll be laying out the projected playoff field each week as the season goes on. Yeah, the official playoff rankings won’t be released until Nov. 5, but that won’t stop us from making our own guesses.
Without CFP rankings as our guide, we’ll mostly rely on the AP Top 25 as our barometer to project the field. The CFP rankings and AP poll typically have many more similarities than differences at the end of the season. Here’s what the provisional playoff field looks like as the calendar flips to October.
First-round byes
1. Alabama (4-0, projected SEC champion)
The Crimson Tide jumped into the top spot in the AP poll on Sunday after their dominant first half turned into an escape against Georgia. Alabama looked unstoppable for the first 30 minutes and, well, stopped in the second half until 17-year-old freshman wide receiver Ryan Williams made two big plays. Alabama travels to a feisty Vanderbilt squad on Saturday afternoon. Don’t be surprised if Vanderbilt hangs around for a little bit.
2. Ohio State (4-0, projected Big Ten champion)
The Buckeyes have now been jumped in the AP Top 25 by two different SEC teams despite a season that includes four 30-point wins. Ohio State is simply taking care of business so far this season and that was on display in a 38-7 win at Michigan State. Freshman wide receiver Jeremiah Smith continues to show why he’s so good, and three different QBs got the chance to throw passes against the Spartans. Saturday’s matchup against Iowa’s defense will be the biggest test the OSU offense has faced so far.
3. Miami (5-0, projected ACC champion)
The Hurricanes stay at No. 3 despite a dramatic 38-34 win over Virginia Tech on Friday night. Miami did its best to lose the game and almost did as a game-winning Hail Mary attempt by the Hokies was ultimately ruled incomplete. Cam Ward had his first two-interception game of the season against Tech, though he also totaled five touchdowns. The Hurricanes now get to experience life in the remade ACC as their Week 6 game is at Cal and kicks off at 10:30 p.m. ET.
4. Iowa State (4-0, projected Big 12 champion)
Welcome to the show, Cyclones. Iowa State is the highest-ranked team in the Big 12 after Utah lost at home to Arizona late Saturday night. The Cyclone defense has been phenomenal this season. ISU has allowed just 29 points in its four games and 19 of those were scored by Iowa in Week 2. The Big 12 may be the most wide-open conference in the country, but Iowa State also has a chance to keep this undefeated run going. The Cyclones don’t play a ranked team until the penultimate week of the season and a road game at Kansas in early November doesn’t look nearly as tough as it did at the start of the season.
First-round games
No. 12. Boise State (3-1, projected MWC champion) at No. 5 Texas (5-0, at-large)
The Broncos continue to look like the best Group of Five team in the country after running over, through and around Washington State late Saturday night. Utah State visits in Week 6 ahead of a trip to Hawaii. The Broncos should be 5-1 before playing at UNLV in late October. The Longhorns fall to an at-large spot here after a routine win over Mississippi State and Alabama’s victory. Texas now has an off week for Quinn Ewers to get healthy ahead of the annual rivalry game vs. Oklahoma.
No. 11 Michigan (4-1, at-large) at No. 6 Tennessee (4-0, at-large)
The Wolverines cut it close with their 27-24 win over Minnesota that was aided by a controversial offsides call on a Gophers’ onside kick late in the game. Michigan seemingly had the game put away before the Gophers scored 21 points in the fourth quarter. The Wolverines visit Washington in Week 6 in a national title game rematch that doesn’t have much juice given the turnover on both teams. Tennessee was off in Week 5 and heads to Arkansas in a game that could be tougher than it looks.
No. 10 Missouri (4-0, at-large) at No. 7 Georgia (3-1, at-large)
The Tigers were also off in Week 5 and have their biggest test of the season in Week 6 with a trip to No. 25 Texas A&M. Mizzou’s last two games were one-possession wins over Boston College and Vanderbilt, respectively. A win over the Aggies will go a long way for the Tigers’ playoff hopes. Georgia only fell to No. 5 in the AP poll after the loss and will have every opportunity to get back as high as No. 1 the rest of the season. The Bulldogs could take out their frustrations against a turnover-prone Auburn squad in Week 6.
No. 9 Penn State (4-0, at-large) at No. 8 Oregon (4-0, at-large)
Penn State’s win over Illinois wasn’t pretty but it got the job done. The Nittany Lions shut out the Illini in the second half as running backs Nicholas Singleton and Kaytron Allen put the game away. Thanks to seven sacks of Illinois QB Luke Altmyer, the Illini had just 34 rushing yards on 32 carries. Oregon easily beat UCLA late Saturday night in a Pac-12 showdown that counted as a Big Ten conference matchup. The Ducks host Michigan State on Friday night.
