The NBA season is just a shade over three weeks away. Preseason basketball starts this Friday. Fantasy basketball diehards and mock drafters are already in full swing, however. Players’ average draft positions (ADP) can change significantly this early in the process. Below are six significant fantasy players that have seen their ADPs change meaningfully as of late.
Fantasy basketball risers
Karl-Anthony Towns, New York Knicks
ADP: 32.6
Towns was surprisingly traded to the Knicks over the weekend, with the Timberwolves receiving Julius Randle, Donte DiVincenzo and a protected first-round pick. We haven’t seen any significant movement from the ADPs of Randle and DiVincenzo, but fantasy basketball managers are viewing the deal as a positive for Towns.
While KAT still projects to be the No. 2 option in New York, as he was in Minnesota, the opportunity to play center gives him a bump. He’s spent the past two seasons playing primarily power forward next to Rudy Gobert. During the past two seasons, he’s averaged 8.2 rebounds and 0.6 blocks compared to 11.2 rebounds and 1.3 blocks in his prior seven seasons.
I don’t anticipate Towns becoming a first-round value, as he was during many of those early years. But there’s a real chance for him to reach second-round status. You may not have to draft him that early, but it wouldn’t make me uncomfortable to do so. It’s also beneficial that he plays a position of scarcity (center), of which you need to start two in standard Yahoo fantasy formats.
Brandon Miller, Charlotte Hornets
ADP: 68.3
There’s been positive momentum trending Miller’s way since the tail end of last season. With LaMelo Ball’s injury, the rookie grabbed control of the offense for large stretches. In his final 34 appearances, Miller averaged 19.7 points on 45/37/84 shooting, 4.7 rebounds, 2.4 assists and 1.9 combined steals-plus-blocks in 33.6 minutes.
Ball is starting this season healthy, and Miles Bridges is still around. Both players give Miller competition for usage. But after what we saw last year, plus offseason development, I won’t be surprised if Miller firmly grabs hold as the team’s clear No. 2 option. It will be difficult for him to up his assist output, which was already low, but he appears ready to become an efficient volume scorer who can put up quality defensive numbers.
His ADP is on the rise, though I think it’s probably at or approaching his ceiling. There are still barriers to him reaching his full potential – mainly the presence of Ball and Bridges. And his game isn’t as well-rounded as it needs to be for elite fantasy production. But the floor feels high, and it’s an understandable bet on the talent.
Cam Thomas, Brooklyn Nets
ADP: 74.6
Thomas grabbed hold of Brooklyn’s offense last season, seizing it away from Mikal Bridges. Bridges is now with the Knicks, and Thomas is left as the Nets’ clear No. 1 option. During the final two months of last season, he averaged 26.6 points on 45/37/89 shooting, 4.2 rebounds and 3.6 assists in 35.8 minutes.
There will be fantasy managers who were burned by Jordan Poole’s anticipated breakout campaign last year who want no part of Thomas. They’ve seen this headline before — punchy microwave scorer set for a massive season on a terrible team. I get that, and it’s a fair concern. But we’re getting Thomas around pick 75 this year, not pick 40, where Poole was being drafted.
I don’t often say this, but I really don’t think you can get burned picking Thomas here. I imagine other fantasy managers are feeling the same way, which is why his ADP is rising. Thomas’ efficiency may suffer, and he lacks as a passer and defender. But how many other players in this range are their team’s clear, clear No. 1 option with this kind of upside? At some point, I just want to bet on a soon-to-be 23-year-old with a radioactive green light.
Fallers
Kawhi Leonard, LA Clippers
ADP: 34.3
Leonard played 68 games last season – his most since before his injury saga with the Spurs began. He was fantastic and returned first-round value for fantasy managers who took the gamble. But should we gamble again this year?
Leonard underwent yet another offseason knee surgery, and he’s limited to begin training camp. While he says the plan is to be ready for Opening Night (October 23 against the Suns), this is a “I’ll believe it when I see it” situation for me. There have been too many issues for me to take anything at face value.
The surgery is scaring off fantasy basketball managers too, and Leonard’s ADP is dropping into the mid-30s. Even if he wasn’t exceptionally injury-prone, how many 33-year-olds would you trust to play 68 games anyway? If you’re a manager who plays upside, I understand how securing Leonard around pick 35 feels like a steal. Personally, I want less risk this early in drafts.
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Devin Vassell, San Antonio Spurs
ADP: 70.4
Devin Vassell has improved each season he’s been in the NBA. Last year was a high for him, as he thrived being the team’s second option behind Victor Wembanyama. Vassell posted strong numbers — 19.5 points on 47/37/81 shooting, 4.1 assists, 3.8 rebounds and 1.1 steals in 33.1 minutes.
However, the foot surgery he underwent that ended his season early didn’t take, and he needed a follow-up procedure in late June. The Spurs’ medical staff will re-evaluate him on November 1. But what does that really mean? If you’re deep enough in the NBA injury weeds, you’ll know that could mean he gets re-evaluated, and it’s determined he’s still at least two weeks away. Then, that cycle repeats itself.
It’s now a tough sell to draft Vassell sooner than pick 100, especially with the other upside plays you can make around picks 70-90. Maybe he comes back in mid-November and everything is fine, and it’s a massive win you drafted him at pick 98. Maybe he’s not playing 30 minutes per game consistently until late December and the selection ends up being mostly a loss. Managers in leagues with multiple IR spots should be more inclined to take the risk.
Mark Williams, Charlotte Hornets
ADP: 77.7
Williams is another player whose ADP is falling due to preseason injury concerns. Williams was en route for a breakout campaign last year but played just 19 games due to a back injury. He put up solid numbers when available, averaging 12.7 points on 64.9 FG% and 71.9 FT%, 9.7 rebounds, 1.2 assists, 1.1 blocks and 0.8 steals in 26.7 minutes.
We got word a few days ago that the center is dealing with a strained tendon in his foot and is set to be re-evaluated in about a week and a half. Charlotte is notoriously deceiving when it comes to their injury reports. They listed Williams as doubtful for 62 straight games last year. So when the team says they’ll re-evaluate him soon, I really don’t know what to expect.
If we know he’s healthy coming into this year, I think the late 70s is a fine ADP for him. He’s a lock to put up quality traditional big man numbers. But clearly fantasy managers are scared off by this injury news, and with good reason. If you’re in any drafts before this re-evalution, you may want to wait closer to pick 100.
