One of the main stories at Liverpool this year has been the contract status of three main stars of the team – Mo Salah, Virgil van Dijk, and Trent Alexander-Arnold.
All three are essential to the way that the side has played since their arrivals in the first team over the past eight years. And whilst Salah is an all-time Premier League attacker and Van Dijk holds the same distinction in defence, Trent Alexander-Arnold is a player that we have never really dealt with before.
Attacking full-backs are all the rage these days but they’re not a completely new idea. Roberto Carlos got 78 assists and 48 goals for Real Madrid. Cafu got 36 assists for Roma and AC Milan. Hey, Graeme Le Saux had 44 assists in his time.
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What Trent Alexander-Arnold does
But rarely, if ever, have we seen a right-back be a team’s attacking focal point. We have never faced a proposition where a right-back is the best passer of a ball in the entire world. And, as a result, Liverpool derived so much success in the Jurgen Klopp era – and early success in the Arne Slot era – from teams not knowing what to do about this.
Much has been made of Trent’s relative lack of defensive ability compared to his attacking genius. Many have called for him to play in midfield instead, something tried by former England manager Gareth Southgate at this past summer’s Euros.
As a result, the prospect of having to replace Alexander-Arnold if he doesn’t sign a new contract is a daunting one. Various names have come up but what needs to be accepted is that replacing him is not possible. Instead, Liverpool have to be ready to fundamentally change their attacking approach whilst reaping the rewards of better defending ability.
The numbers speak for themselves. Trent has the most assists in Premier League history with 59 (tied, amazingly, with left-back Andy Robertson). Over the past year alone he sits in the 99th percentile on a per-90 basis for expected assists, progressive passes, long passes attempted and completed, key passes, and shot-creating actions from live balls in the top five Men’s leagues.
You don’t replace that. It’s not possible. Football analysis site FBRef suggest that Tottenham’s Pedro Porro has the closest statistical output to Trent – don’t laugh – and whilst his underlying numbers are good, the only statistic he matches Trent in like that is goal-creating actions from a dead ball pass.
What can be replaced?
But the flaws do stand out when you look at the defensive numbers. Trent is in the 43rd percentile for tackles won (again all on a per-90 basis), the 2nd(!) percentile for percentage of dribblers tackled, the 14th percentile for clearances and the 9th percentile for errors.
As a result, whilst you might never be able to replace Trent’s attacking output, you definitely will be able to improve on the defending from your right-hand side.
Southampton’s Yukinari Sugawara has a 100% tackle rate per-90 (Trent’s this season is 56.3%) at a total tackles a little bit lower than Trent. Napoli’s Giovanni di Lorenzo sits at 84.6% tackle rate per-90 this season and 3.17 shot-creating actions, just above Trent’s 3.09. Leipzig’s Benjamin Henrichs has a 3.08 shot-creating action rate per-90, just below Trent’s, with a 71.4% tackle rate.
These examples are chosen at random to demonstrate that both attacking output and higher defensive rates are possible. That is not to suggest that Liverpool should sign any of those three players or that they could aptly replace Alexander-Arnold. Far from it.
Yet what we can be certain of is that this attacking output would not come in the same form. Trent’s game is based around his pinpoint passing ability across the entire pitch. His rate of long balls completed is 6.91 per-90 this season so far, whereas the given examples of Sugawara is 3.21, di Lorenzo is 3.5, Henrichs is 3.85.
As a result, it needs to be accepted that Trent leaving would not be the end of the world for Liverpool, but it would certainly be the end of an era. The team could go on creating chances and terrorising teams but it would come in a different form.
And it would be down to Arne Slot to make sure this transition caused as little damage as possible.
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