The craziness of the first few weeks of the NFL season regressed all at once last week.
You won’t find many weeks more chalky than Week 6. Favorites covered in every game but one. The Cleveland Browns lost 20-16 as an 8.5-point underdog at the Philadelphia Eagles to prevent the 14-game sweep by favorites. Maybe you got the Indianapolis Colts as an underdog against the Tennessee Titans after the favorite flipped during the week, but the point stands. Nobody lost in their survival pick ’em last week, let’s say. Not that anyone was still alive after a chaotic first five weeks.
Here’s a look at Week 7 of the NFL season from a betting standpoint, with all odds from BetMGM:
Thursday night: Not a pretty Broncos-Saints matchup
Usually the headline in this spot every week highlights the Thursday night matchup, but not this time. If you watch the Denver Broncos vs. New Orleans Saints, you will watch any football game.
This could be ugly. The Denver Broncos are 3-3 with an up-and-down Bo Nix at quarterback. The New Orleans Saints are just a mess. Rookie quarterback Spencer Rattler is still replacing Derek Carr (in fairness, Rattler was fine last week in his NFL debut), the Saints are without top receivers Chris Olave and Rashid Shaheed and their defense allowed nearly 600 yards last week to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. The Saints opened as a small favorite but the line has moved all the way to Broncos -3.
NFC North showdown: Lions small underdogs at Vikings
We’d usually also highlight the early London game, but New England Patriots vs. Jacksonville Jaguars? That’s what we’re giving England this week? There are many other good games in Week 7, and most weeks the Detroit Lions at Minnesota Vikings would be the best one. It’s the one with the most playoff ramifications.
The Vikings are 5-0 to start the season. The Lions are 4-1 coming off a destruction of the Dallas Cowboys, though they did lose defensive end Aidan Hutchinson. We’ll get to see if Detroit can adjust to that, and also if anyone can decipher Brian Flores’ defense this season. If this fantastic Lions offense can’t move the ball on Minnesota, it’s possible no team can. The Lions are 1.5-point underdogs in a game that could ultimately determine who wins the NFC North, and maybe the No. 1 seed in the NFC as well.
QB battle in Lambeau: C.J. Stroud vs. Jordan Love
Here’s another fantastic matchup in the early games Sunday. We’ll be stuffed before getting to the late games and perhaps the best matchup of the entire NFL season in San Francisco. The Houston Texans and Green Bay Packers both look like they should be considered Super Bowl contenders. The Texans are sixth in the Super Bowl odds (+1000) while the Packers are ninth (+2000) and probably should be higher.
The Packers are 2.5-point favorite in this game, and while we focus on the quarterbacks, Houston’s defense could be the key. Love hasn’t handled pressure that well this season. He has a passer rating of 107.4 with a completion percentage of 66.7% when pressured, and a rating of 61.9 and completion percentage of 40.9 when facing pressure according to TruMedia. Houston is tied for fifth in the NFL with 19 sacks and has some excellent individual pass rushers led by Will Anderson Jr. The Packers’ ability to keep Love clean will be a big factor.
Player prop of the week: Saquon Barkley overs
This isn’t some deep cut. It’s just a square revenge angle. Barkley wasn’t happy the New York Giants didn’t pay him, and it didn’t seem totally coincidental that he signed within the division. Barkley has looked a lot better with the Philadelphia Eagles, and while Barkley downplays his first game against the Giants, it’s hard to believe he doesn’t want to play very well this week. On top of it, the Giants are a big banged up on the defensive line. Barkley over 83.5 rushing yards is tempting, but over 17.5 rushing attempts is even more interesting. The Eagles know what this game means to Barkley and they’ll give him as much action as he wants.
Super Bowl rematch: Chiefs at 49ers
When the NFL came out with the schedule, this was the top game on it. It’s a rematch of last season’s thrilling Super Bowl, and we might see it again these two teams face off again in February. At BetMGM, the Kansas City Chiefs have the shortest Super Bowl odds, while the San Francisco 49ers have the shortest championship odds among NFC teams despite a 3-3 start.
The Chiefs are 5-0 and have kept winning despite some key injuries to offensive players like Isiah Pacheco and Rashee Rice. The 49ers have had injuries too, and a shoulder injury that kept running back Jordan Mason out of all but one play in the second half last week is worth watching. The 49ers are 1.5-point favorites, and if you give San Francisco about two points for home-field advantage, that means oddsmakers consider the two teams roughly even with a slight edge to the Chiefs.
Interesting underdog: Tampa Bay Buccaneers
It seems the Buccaneers are a very good football team. They’re 4-2, and they had one dud against the Denver Broncos (whose defense is pretty good) and they gave away a game against the Atlanta Falcons. Otherwise, they’ve looked strong. Remember, they blew out the Washington Commanders in Week 1. That performance has aged well.
The Baltimore Ravens are 3.5-point favorites at the Buccaneers on Monday night and that’s reasonable. The Ravens are really good. But the Buccaneers — who were just 3-point favorites against Spencer Rattler and the Saints last week and covered the spread by 21 points — continue to be the most undervalued team in the NFL.
Sunday night: Jets at Steelers
The marquee games happen during the day Sunday, but the prime-time games on Sunday and Monday aren’t bad either.
We’ll get Davante Adams’ debut on Sunday night as the New York Jets face the Pittsburgh Steelers. It also appears it will be Russell Wilson’s Steelers debut, as the team has indicated Wilson will replace Justin Fields at quarterback. So there are plenty of storylines. The 2-4 Jets are 2-point road favorites, and that’s probably reflective of what the market thinks of Wilson at this point in his career.
