The NBA is back — and with it so are our weekly NBA Power Rankings.
These will come out every Wednesday throughout the season, but this year we’re doing things a little differently: We’re dividing the teams into tiers (with teams being able to move between tiers as they earn it). The meaning of those tiers should be clear: Title contenders, fringe contenders (teams that could win it all but have big questions and/or no margin for error), solid playoff teams, play-in teams, and lottery-bound teams chasing Cooper Flagg.
TITLE CONTENDERS
1. Boston Celtics (Last season 64-18). Boston should really be on its own tier — Boston lapped the field last regular season then lost three games in their playoff run. Now they bring back the top seven rotation players from that squad — well, once Kristaps Porzingis returns from surgery around Christmas – and this team is set up to become the first repeat champion since the Durant/Curry Warriors. The question becomes how hard will the other teams in the East push them?
2. Oklahoma City Thunder (57-25). The West’s No. 1 seed last season upgraded in key ways over the summer adding Alex Caruso and Isaiah Hartenstein (although Hartenstein is out to start the season with a fractured hand). They are the team to beat out West. One thing worth noting: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander’s jump shot looks improved through the preseason, as evidenced by his hitting 7-of-11 from 3. If that carries over to the regular season SGA just became a bigger threat to win MVP.
3. Dallas Mavericks (50-32). Is this the season Luka Doncic earns his first MVP? Dallas reached the Finals a season ago and got better — at least on the offensive end of the court — by adding Klay Thompson. If Dallas is headed back to the Finals, it will be less about Thompson and more about Dereck Lively II and Naji Marshall — Dallas should have a top-three offense in the league, but Lively and Marshall are tasked with ensuring this team gets enough stops. Dallas will go as far as their defense takes them.
4. New York Knicks (50-32). Jalen Brunson and Karl-Anthony Towns have quickly formed one of the more dangerous pick-and-roll duos in the league. With KAT, the Knicks’ five-out spacing should lead to a top-five offense in the league, but that’s not the end of the floor where we have questions. With KAT playing a lot of drop coverage (not his traditional strength) will New York get enough stops to threaten Boston? Also, what is up with Mikal Bridges’ jump shot this preseason?
5. Philadelphia 76ers (47-35). It seems cliche to say the 76ers are contenders and then question their ability to stay healthy in the following sentence, but here we are. Joel Embiid and Paul George are both in doubt to open the season and — as good as Tyrese Maxey has looked — it makes one wonder if this could be a repeat of last season when the Sixers fell to the No. 7 seed due to injuries. On paper, the 76ers may be the biggest threat to the Celtics, but they have to prove they can do it consistently on the court.
6. Denver Nuggets (57-25). Jamal Murray, fresh off a max contract extension this summer, was up-and-down this preseason. While he shot 43.8% from 3, he shot 31.3% inside the arc. He dished out 10 assists but had eight turnovers. Sure, it’s just preseason, but it’s a concern. The focus in Denver has been on the youngsters Julian Swather, Peyton Watson and Christian Braun, but if Denver wants to return to the Finals it starts with Murray returning to peak form. (Nobody is stressing about Nikola Jokic, who will be back in the MVP mix.)
7. Minnesota Timberwolves (56-26). I have so many questions about the Timberwolves in the wake of the KAT trade that I almost bumped them down a category, but people around the team are convinced they are better with Randle stepping into Towns’ shoes and Donte DiVincenzo off the bench. I’m skeptical but willing to give them the benefit of the doubt because of the leap I expect Anthony Edwards to make this season.
FRINGE CONTENDERS
8. Milwaukee Bucks (48-31). There are no questions about Giannis Antetokounmpo, expect another MVP-level campaign from one of the games greats at his peak. However, there are nothing but questions around him: Can Damian Lillard look more like his vintage self? Can Khris Middleton hold up after offseason surgeries on both ankles (he is out to start the season)? At age 36, will Brook Lopez lose a step? Do the Bucks have enough depth? The Bucks will be good, but there are a lot of questions to answer if they threaten the top of the East.
9. Phoenix Suns (49-33). The talent on the roster is unquestioned — two of USA Basketball’s gold medal starters from Paris are on this team in Kevin Durant and Devin Booker. However, to contend Phoenix will need a bounce-back season from Bradley Beal as a third option. More importantly, Mike Budenholzer (an outstanding regular season coach) has to get the Suns to defend better, and Tyus Jones has to be the floor general point guard they need (he can be and was a steal on a minimum contract). That’s too many questions to put them in the contender tier to start the season, but this team can be a huge threat if everything clicks.
10. Memphis Grizzlies (27-55). Predicting a bounce-back season for the Grizzlies has become trendy — and I am on the bandwagon. People seem to forget how dynamic Ja Morant is, they undervalue Desmond Bane, and a combo of Zach Edey and former DPOY Jaren Jackson Jr. are going to make driving the lane on this team scary. It’s fair to question where they rank in the West and how much Marcus Smart has left in the tank, but this team won 50+ games for consecutive seasons with this core before injuries ravaged them last season. They will be back.
PLAYOFFS OR BUST
11. Cleveland Cavaliers (48-34). Are we undervaluing the Cavaliers by not having them in the top 10? Cleveland has a potentially elite defense (sixth in the NBA last season, first two seasons ago with this same core), an All-NBA player in Donovan Mitchell, and quality depth with Darius Garland, Jarrett Allen, Caris LeVert and more. It comes down to this: If Evan Mobley can take a big step forward on offense — we know he’s an elite defender — this team is a title contender. If not, this ranking is about right.
12. Indiana Pacers (47-35). Indiana was the most entertaining team in the league last season, then rode that high-powered offense to the Eastern Conference Finals (with the help of a bit of injury luck during the playoffs). Can they do that again? To play again late into May, their defense must take a big step forward. After adding Pascal Siakam, the Pacers had the 18th-best defense in the league after the All-Star break, if they can take even a small step forward off that, this team can move up these rankings and be a threat come the postseason.
13. Orlando Magic (47-35). Adding Kentavious Caldwell-Pope should be a hand-in-glove fit, he’s an elite perimeter defender who can bring needed floor spacing and shooting. However, this team still needs a floor general. They have Paolo Banchero, who will likely take a step forward and make the Magic a dangerous postseason team, but even with their elite defense, they feel one player away.
14. New Orleans Pelicans (47-35). The Pelicans are going to be everybody’s League Pass favorite this season, playing small and fast with Zion Williamson, Dejounte Murray and the just extended Trey Murphy III (good job in locking him up). But playing small also means 6’8″ Herb Jones at center for long stretches — the Pelicans will have to win by outscoring teams because they are not going to get enough stops. Also, how well do Brandon Ingram and Murray mix? They have similar enough games to make it potentially awkward.
15. Golden State Warriors (46-36). Stephen Curry reminded everyone watching the Paris Olympics that he can still carry a team, but who is his No. 2? Jonathan Kuminga is going to get the chance to step up, but what the Warriors really need is 2022 championship-run Andrew Wiggins back. They did a good thing locking up Moses Moody with an extension. The Warriors are a quality team that could finish anywhere from sixth to 10th in the West.
16. Sacramento Kings (46-36). While it’s just preseason, going 0-5 in those games is concerning. This is one team I saw in person this preseason, and they are just not finding a groove yet with DeMar DeRozan in the mix. That should change, this is a playoff roster, but this is a team that is not going to be good defensively and that puts a ceiling on them. Sacramento is another team in the meat of the West that could finish in the top six if they find that groove, but it also could finish much lower.
17. Los Angeles Lakers (47-35). Anthony Davis and LeBron James were two of the four best players for the gold medal winning USA Basketball team in Paris, and LeBron was the tone setter for that team. It’s one thing to do that over five games with almost no travel, it’s another to do it at age 40 over the marathon of an 82-game NBA season. The question isn’t if LeBron is up to it, it’s why are they still asking him to fill that role?. The only change the Lakers made around their stars was bringing in J.J. Redick as coach. It puts a lot on Austin Reeves, D’Angelo Russell, Rui Hachimura and the rest of the roster — and the Lakers need LeBron and AD to stay largely healthy this season, as they did a season ago. The Lakers could finish in the top six if things click, or they could miss even the play-in, no team has the variance this season the Lakers do.
18. Miami Heat (46-36). With Jimmy Butler, Olympian Bam Adebayo and quality players on the perimeter such as Tyler Herro and Terry Rozier, this team will not be bad (the Heat are never bad). But are they good? They don’t seem threatening to teams at the top of the East good. Pat Riley said this was a year that would be critical for this Heat core, but this feels right now like a franchise stuck in the middle.
19. Los Angeles Clippers (51-31). No Kawhi Leonard to start the season is a bad omen, but it means an all-you-can-eat buffet of shots for James Harden, which will at least be entertaining. The Clippers have enough quality role players — Ivica Zubac, Norman Powell, Terance Mann, Derrick Jones Jr. — to be solid, but without vintage Leonard they are not a threat (and maybe not even with him). The new Intuit Dome is impressive, though.
PLAY IN HOPEFULS
20. Houston Rockets (41-41). There’s a lot of interesting talent on this young roster — Amen Thompson, Jalen Green, Alperen Sengun, Reed Sheppard, Jabari Smith Jr. — and how Ime Udoka finds minutes to develop them but also play veterans like Fred VanVleet and Dillon Brooks will be the challenge. If things come together and the Rockets defend like they did a season ago, this ranking may be too low for Houston, which could be a solid playoff team.
21. Toronto Raptors (25-57). I am higher on Toronto than most, but admittedly that is a bet on Scottie Barnes making a leap this season from a top 35 player in the league to a top 20 (at least). He with RJ Barrett and Immanuel Quickley form a quality trio, the problem is there may not be enough around them to do more than grab the 9 or 10 seed.
22. Atlanta Hawks (36-46). With Dejounte Murray gone it’s the Trae Murphy show in Atlanta, which comes with plusses and minuses. One player to watch is Jalen Johnson, a fast-rising forward with All-Star potential who could have a breakout — Most Improved Player? — kind of season. No. 1 pick Zaccharie Risacher is going to get minutes, the thing to watch with him is not how he plays in October and November, but how much better does he look in March and April. He’s a development project, be patient.
23. San Antonio Spurs (22-60). This feels too low for a team where Victor Wembanyama is about to make an All-NBA leap in his second season and Chris Paul will be feeding him the rock. The Spurs are improving fast, they are in such a deep Western Conference that they are still going to lose a lot of games, but they are going to show grit. Keep an eye on rookie Stephon Castle, he’ll be the best player out of this draft class in five years.
24. Chicago Bulls (39-43). While I have Chicago in the play-in hopeful level to start the season — they believe they are a postseason team and have some talent with Josh Giddey and Nikola Vucevic — one of the things to watch is if and how quickly Chicago pulls the plug. The Bulls owe their pick in the upcoming draft to the Spurs, but it is top 10 protected. At what point does management decide being in the lottery will matter more? Part of that is finding a trade for Zach LaVine, who can be a floor raiser for this team and has looked good in preseason games.
CAPTURE THE (COOPER) FLAGG
25. Utah Jazz (31-51). With Lauri Markkanen back as its star, Utah is not a terrible team, but in this deep West it will be a struggle for them. John Collins, Collin Sexton and Jordan Clarkson provide a little help, but at some point this team will pivot — they owe their first-round pick to Oklahoma City, but it’s top-10 protected. Given a choice between chasing the No. 10 seed or keeping that pick, we know what Danny Ainge will want to do.
26. Charlotte Hornets (21-61). This ranking could be too low for Charlotte if LaMelo Ball can stay healthy and get back to an All-Star level of play, if Brandon Miller can take a step forward, if center Mark Williams can stay healthy, if Miles Bridges continues to play well, and all this lifts the Hornet offense up to the top half of the league (they were 28th last season). It’s possible, but a lot of “ifs.”
27. Detroit Pistons (14-68). Detroit should be better than a season ago. First, coach J.B. Bickerstaff wants to be there. Cade Cunningham should take a big step forward. Tobias Harris is a solid veteran who is an upgrade for the Pistons, and along with Isaiah Stewart, Jalen Duren and Paul Reed should form a solid frontcourt. A lot has to come together, but the Pistons pushing for a play-in spot is not out of the question.
28. Brooklyn Nets (32-50). Brooklyn’s management signaled their intentions when they traded to regain control of their 2025 and 2026 first-round picks — they are tanking and rebuilding. They traded Mikal Bridges over the summer, and several players on the roster — Nic Clayton, Cameron Johnson, Bojan Bogdanovic, Dorian Finney-Smith — could be traded at the deadline. The player everyone is watching is Ben Simmons, who enters a contract year trying to prove to teams he deserves another NBA deal (though not the max he got last time).
29. Portland Trail Blazers (21-61). This team is going to lose a lot of games, but it will be entertaining and a League Pass favorite. The Blazers are an athletic team that wants to run with Anfernee Simons, Shaedon Sharpe and Scoot Henderson. The addition of Deni Avdija will help as he can facilitate in the half-court. Jerami Grant will score points and be in the middle of a million trade rumors.
30. Washington Wizards (15-67). Alex Sarr showed flashes at Summer League that made it clear why the Wizards drafted him second overall, but the question now is how much he develops over the course of the season. It’s the same with a couple of other promising rookies in Bub Carrington and Kyshawn George. He may have had a rough last season, but pick up Jordan Poole because, with Tyus Jones gone, it’s going to be an all-you-can-eat buffet of shots for him (and Kyle Kuzma, who will be the subject of a lot of mid-season trade rumors).
