Fantasy Football Fact or Fluke: Key tips for the 2nd half of the season, whether you’re 7-0 or 0-7

In life, we frequently focus on jumping from one big event to the next, marking milestones like birthdays, promotions or vacations. We mentally speed through the in-betweens to reach the BIG MOMENT(s). In fantasy football terms, those moments are the draft, Week 1 and the playoffs.

We’re usually not even aware that we’re just killing time, trudging mindlessly through the days and weeks between these defining events. Research has shown that planning for big events produces as much pleasure as participating in the big events themselves. Incidentally, the fact that the in-between makes up most of our lives is a major reason for the push toward mindfulness in recent years. In a relatively short human life, it seems optimal to be fully present for even the mundane and ordinary hours, days and weeks that fall between the peaks of our existence.

So, with the ultimate fantasy prize — a playoff spot and championship — still weeks away, we’re going to reflect on your season as it is right now. Fantasy advice is hardly ever one size fits all; this week I’ll be talking to the managers at the top of the standings, those closer to .500 and those at the bottom who need to do the hard work and stumble into some good luck.

7-0, 6-1, 5-2: Sitting pretty

You’ve been incredibly lucky and/or spent with abandon to scoop up the best waiver adds of 2024. What to do?

1. Your focus should be on depth. Trade for it, add it off the wire, whatever. Just make your team impervious to injury.

2. Look 2-3 weeks ahead in your league’s schedule to see when other managers might need to drop an insurance RB for a starting QB. Perhaps you can entice them into a trade when they’re at their most desperate. Or scoop up their drops. Your roster may be on cruise control, especially with no byes in Week 8, but you can still be working for that championship finish.

3. You might have even drafted your roster with playoff matchups in mind. However, what we know about defenses and fantasy matchups now isn’t what we thought in September. It’s time to reassess our playoff rosters. Minnesota, Denver, Pittsburgh, K.C. and the L.A. Chargers no longer look like favorable or even neutral scoring situations, while you can pass on the Ravens and Bucs much easier than you could last year. Likewise, the Patriots, Saints, Eagles and Cowboys have been surprisingly fantasy-friendly to running backs. Re-think how you’re built for Weeks 15-17 and see if you can optimize for current matchup conditions. Who’s facing the four (through Week 7) most generous defenses for fantasy?
   Week 15: Chargers, Jets, Giants, Cowboys
   Week 16: Raiders, Cardinals, Cowboys, Steelers
   Week 17: Bucs, Panthers, Titans, Texans

4-3, 3-4: A fighting chance

You haven’t given up, but your grim determination could take a turn toward depressive if one more piece of bad news hits your roster. Hopefully, you have some players returning from injury — Nick Chubb, Tua Tagovailoa, Cooper Kupp, eventually Christian McCaffrey perhaps? Then again, maybe you’ve recently lost Mike Evans, Chris Godwin or DK Metcalf. What to do?

1. Guys like Jalen McMillan (available in 98% of leagues), Sterling Shepard (100%), Trey Palmer (100%), Tyler Lockett (42%), Cade Otton (61%) and Noah Fant (70%) could help in the near term.

2. Your top priority should be making the right sit/start decisions. The recent rash of injuries and heavier bye weeks coming in Weeks 10-12 and 14 might make those decisions easier, but this is no time to set it and forget it. You need to win now. Scrutinize your players’ matchups as well as your opponent’s roster. Can you take advantage of any correlations (the classic being to start a WR on your opponent’s QB’s team)? Keep your primary focus on the week in front of you. Based on the fantasy points allowed, consider:
   Week 8 QBs to start: Kirk Cousins, Jordan Love, Jameis Winston (if confirmed)
   Week 8 RBs to start: Breece Hall, Kenneth Walker III, Javonte Williams. Desperation plays: Braelon Allen, Zach Charbonnet, Jaleel McLaughlin
   Week 8 WRs to start: Packers, Rams, Titans, Browns
   Week 8 TEs to start: Dallas Goedert, Dalton Schultz, Brock Bowers. Desperation play: Lucas Krull

3. You’re in a decent position, so don’t panic. You don’t need to aim for every player’s ceiling every week. You don’t need miracles; you need to be solid. Solid comes from opportunities: touches and targets, primarily. Study utilization data, including team tendencies and pay attention to how injuries could change past performance going forward.

2-5, 1-6, 0-7: Not hopeless

If this is you, you have a choice to make.

Some people will give in to despair and write this season off. Too many injuries, too many bad beats, “It just wasn’t meant to be this time.” Your twisted brain might even try to convince you that you didn’t want to play fantasy this year anyway and now you have more time to go to corn mazes and learn to brew your own beer.

That would be super lame, not only for you, but for the leaguemates counting on every manager to put in their best effort for you. So, here’s my plea: don’t give up, don’t give in to the doom-and-gloom scenario of missing the playoffs. If you keep working at it, you’ll find moments between now and then to savor. Like dashing someone else’s playoff hopes or handing the first-place team their first loss.

What to do?

1. Look to the San Francisco 49ers for inspiration. They, too, look pretty down and out right now, but hope may be on the horizon. First-round rookie Ricky Pearsall debuted in Week 7, earning five targets, but only catching three for 21 yards. Get him and hope for a Jauan Jennings-esque performance in Week 8.

2. Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle should return to fantasy relevance along with Tua Tagovailoa this week. The Dolphins face Arizona in a fantasy-friendly matchup that is above average in fantasy points allowed to WR, points per game (fourth in the league) and passing touchdowns. Tua’s loss might be a big reason you’re in this position; his return might help you climb your way back into the mix.

3. Wallow in the lows with the Cleveland Browns. It’s too bad it took a nasty injury to Deshaun Watson to (hopefully) get us to the fantasy free-for-all that is Jameis Winston, but desperate fantasy managers might want to take notice of Cedric Tillman’s 12 targets in Week 7 (8/81, WR14). Winston likes to sling it, and while I’m averse to his risky brand of quarterbacking for fantasy QB purposes, his receivers do benefit. Elijah Moore had seven targets, while Jerry Jeudy had five. Up next is a Ravens defense that is the third-most generous to opposing receivers.

4. Week 7 was the week of the running back, with numerous guys scoring multiple touchdowns (Tank Bigsby, Joe Mixon, Kareem Hunt, Kyren Williams, Javonte Williams and Jahmyr Gibbs). They aren’t all available in competitive leagues, but look at the volume some players who just might be available saw:
   Alexander Mattison, 23 carries, three targets, 54% rostered
   Tank Bigsby, 26 carries, one target, 67% rostered
   Kareem Hunt, 22 carries, two targets, 81% rostered.

You’ve got to be trying to maximize every possible edge if your back is to the wall so at least be sure your league isn’t in the above 46% (or 33 or 19).

If waivers look dry, consider JaMychal Hasty … sure you’ve heard this one before, but with Drake Maye in Week 7, he had five catches on five targets and a touchdown. The Patriots don’t get to face the Jags again, but they do get a Jets defense that just gave up a receiving touchdown to Ty Johnson and rushing touchdowns to both Ray Davis and James Cook, so Hasty isn’t the worst pickup for Week 8.