The Knicks face the Celtics in Boston on Tuesday to tip off the 2024-25 NBA season. Before things get going, we’ve put together our annual list of bold (and not so bold) predictions:
1. The Knicks offense will clear 120 points per 100 possession
With Karl-Anthony Towns spreading the floor, the Knicks will turn into one of the top offenses in the NBA. It may take some time to gel, but Jalen Brunson & Co. will be putting up a lot of points – efficiently – as the season progresses. Brunson will set a career highs in total assists and field goal percentage on shots within 10 feet of the rim. With Towns on the floor, the lane should open up significantly. And Brunson will benefit, both as a scorer and distributor.
Towns and Brunson will figure out ways to manipulate the defense in the pick-and-roll, leading to greater efficiency on that end. The Knicks defense may take a hit this season (more on that below) but I think the offense will overwhelm teams on many nights.
2. Knicks defense will be outside top 10, but be among league’s best in crunch time
On the other side of the ball, I think the Knicks defense will back-slide this season. They will finish outside of the top 10 in defensive efficiency; their rebounding percentage will take a big hit without Mitchell Robinson (until at least December) and Isaiah Hartenstein.
The Knicks have two of the best individual defenders in the NBA in Mikal Bridges and OG Anunoby. Josh Hart is also a very disruptive on defense. Brunson and Towns play with effort, which matters. But they have limitations on defense. So the starting unit will take a hit defensively. Will that impact the bottom line? We’ll see.
Denver did pretty well in 2023 with two top players (Nikola Jokic and Jamal Murray) who had limitations on defense.
I do think the Knicks can – and will – get stops when it matters. Last season, New York ranked fourth in defense in the clutch (clutch is defined as the final five minutes of games where a team leads or trails by five or fewer points). The Knicks will be right around there again this season, with the closing lineups featuring Anunoby, Bridges, and Hart getting important stops late in the clutch.
3. Joel Embiid will be relatively healthy in the playoffs
Embiid played through discomfort in his surgically-repaired knee and in his eye during the Sixers’ first-round series against the Knicks last season. He still averaged 33.0 points, 10.8 rebounds and 5.7 assists in the six-game series. But the Sixers fell short; those injuries and a lack of condition seemed to limit Embiid in some games. Maybe the Sixers beat the Knicks if Embiid is fully healthy? Who knows?
Embiid has a history of playing with injuries – or getting hurt – in the postseason. I think things will be different this season. I assume Embiid genuinely thought the Sixers should have won that first-round series against New York. I also assume he’s motivated to do whatever he can health-wise this season because he has a great shot to win a title if he and his teammates stay healthy. No matter what happens in the regular season, I think Embiid and the Sixers will do what it takes to ensure that the 30-year-old is healthy in late April.
4. Damian Lillard will look more like Damian Lillard
Last offseason, he didn’t have a chance to train as often as usual because of the pending trade from Portland. This offseason has been different. I think a full offseason of training will help Lillard regain his form this year in Milwaukee. Will that translate to team success? I’m not so sure about that. But I do think Lillard will have a resurgence.
5. Donte DiVincenzo will set a career high in assist rate and total assists
He will have the ball in his hands more often in Minnesota than he did last year in New York. He’ll make good decisions in those possessions and his team will get good looks. He may not set the franchise record for made three-pointers, but DiVincenzo will set a personal record as a passer this season.
6. Pacome Dadiet will have a bigger role than anticipated this season due, in part, to the Knicks’ preseason injuries
Even before those injuries, Dadiet’s play had surpassed the expectations of some in the organization. So my bold prediction here is that he won’t be spending the season entirely in the G League. I think he’ll have a role with the big club, particularly early on amid New York’s injury issues. Also worth noting about bench units: As discussed on The Putback, I think the Knicks bench will benefit from the presence of Bridges. I can’t see the Knicks rolling out five-man bench lineups. I think Bridges or another starter will be on the floor with the reserves to help balance the unit. This should also give Bridges the opportunity to create with the ball in his hands/score often in half-court and flow.
One more bench prediction: I think Landry Shamet will avoid surgery on his dislocated shoulder and the Knicks will bring him back. I also think New York will eventually convert Ariel Hukporti’s two way deal to a standard contract.
7. Spencer Dinwiddie will bounce back from his rough 2023-24 with a strong campaign for the Mavericks
With Dante Exum sidelined for several weeks, Dinwiddie will stabilize Dallas off the bench. He didn’t look great last season in his stints in Brooklyn and Los Angeles. But I believe Dinwiddie will produce in Dallas this season.
8. Tyus Jones will help the Suns go deeper in the playoffs
Phoenix was one of the league’s biggest disappointments last year. I think they will be a much tougher out in the playoffs this year, and Tyus Jones will be a driving force. Jones will help Phoenix get organized on offense and will make life easier for Kevin Durant and Devin Booker.
9. Brooklyn’s Jalen Wilson will be in contention for the Most Improved Player award
Wilson should get significant playing time with the Nets; I believe he’ll take advantage of it. Wilson looked very comfortable at times last year. That will translate to consistent production this season.
10. Whenever KJ Martin gets rotation minutes, he will surprise people with his perimeter shooting
I believe Martin has the talent and temperament to thrive in today’s NBA. Whether he plays regular minutes for Philadelphia or for another franchise, I expect Martin will show improved perimeter shooting, which should open up other avenues for him on offense.
For transparency, here are previous prediction columns from the 2023-24 regular season and offseason, and the 2022-23 regular season.
