(Bloomberg) — Analysts are becoming more divided on the outlook for India’s stock market after an 11-month wining streak.
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While Goldman Sachs Group Inc. has tactically lowered Indian shares to neutral from overweight given slowing economic growth, UBS Global Wealth Management said it’s time to “buy the dip” as the soft patch in the nation’s growth and earnings appears transitory.
The divergence in consensus underscores growing uncertainty over the sustainability of company earnings in India amid weakening consumer spending and lofty valuations. Some investors are expecting a slower upward grind in markets, while others see a dimming of India’s relative appeal as China’s efforts to pull its economy out of a rut lure back global funds.
“While we believe the structural positive case for India remains intact, economic growth is cyclically slowing down across many pockets,” Goldman strategists including Sunil Koul wrote in a note on Tuesday. Worsening earnings sentiment, high valuations and a less supportive backdrop could limit the near-term upside for local shares, they added.
The market may correct over the next three to six months, though a large drop is less likely due to support from domestic flows, they said. Goldman lowered its 12-month target for the NSE Nifty 50 Index to 27,000 from 27,500 previously, implying a 10% upside from Tuesday’s close.
Goldman joins a growing group of brokerages casting doubts on India’s stock rally. Earlier this month, Bernstein Societe Generale Group cut local equities to underweight, citing expectations for continued outflows and weak profits, while predicting further upside for Chinese equities thanks to a policy boost.
Although the South Asian nation’s record gain is already showing signs of fatigue, for the bulls, the slowdown is due to one-off factors and economic growth is expected to resume.
Investors should continue to raise “foundational or strategic asset allocation into the market” as India remains the fastest growing economy in the G-20 group, Tan Min Lan, head of UBS’s Asia Pacific chief investment office, said in a Bloomberg TV interview.
Asset allocation for India is still “minuscule” for many institutional investors, she added, allowing more room to grow holdings.
