ESPN’s FPI model gives Patriots highest chance to earn No. 1 draft pick originally appeared on NBC Sports Boston
The New England Patriots hit a new low point this week.
Not only did they suffer a deflating 32-16 loss to the Jacksonville Jaguars in last week’s game in London, head coach Jerod Mayo called the team soft in his postgame press conference. And then former head coach Bill Belichick responded to those comments on multiple platforms and made the story even larger.
Amid all of the drama, the Patriots have a 1-6 record at the bottom of the NFL standings.
They have lost six consecutive games for the first time since 1993. One positive from that season was the Patriots earned the No. 1 pick in the draft, and according to ESPN’s Football Power Index (FPI), New England is the favorite to finish in that spot when the 2024 regular season concludes.
Here’s what ESPN’s analytics model says about the Patriots’ chances of getting the No. 1 pick in the 2025 NFL Draft:
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FPI chance to earn No. 1 pick: 42.6 percent
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FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 89.9 percent
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FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 98.6 percent
The Carolina Panthers, who are tied with the Patriots at 1-6, have the second-best chance to earn the top pick at 27.5 percent, per ESPN’s FPI. The Titans sit at the bottom of the AFC South with a 1-5 record and have the third-best chance to earn the No. 1 pick at 7.0 percent, per ESPN’s FPI.
The last time the Patriots had a top-five draft pick in back-to-back years was 1993 and 1994, and those picks turned into two franchise cornerstones.
The Pats selected Washington State quarterback Drew Bledsoe at No. 1 overall in 1993, and then took USC linebacker Willie McGinest at No. 4 overall in 1994. Bledsoe was instrumental in the team’s turnaround during the mid-1990s, and McGinest played an important role for a defense that won three Super Bowl titles (2001, 2003 and 2004).
It’s possible the Patriots have already found their next star quarterback after taking Drake Maye with the No. 3 pick in the 2024 draft. He’s played well so far with quality performances in each of his first two starts. The sample size is very small, but Maye looks like the real deal.
The goal for the Patriots in the 2025 draft, and especially with their first-round pick, should be surrounding Maye with as much high-end talent on offense as possible, specifically at left tackle and wide receiver. New England has a glaring need at both positions.
