During a media meeting with new Stanford basketball head coach Kyle Smith on Tuesday, Stanford Cardinal on SI asked coach Smith if he was willing to name his starting five to begin the season. He responded “probably six,” meaning that there would be a rotation of guys that would be in the mix. We asked him if they were going to allow him to run with six on the court at once, and coach Smith took it in stride, saying, “that’s the real secret of nerd ball.”
“Nerd ball” has a number of different explanations. For senior guard Maxime Raynaud, it’s an objective way of telling you how you did. “It puts all of the emotions aside. There’s no hard feelings, it’s just ‘this worked, this did not work.'”
Junior Oziyah Sellers, a transfer from USC, said that it was definitely a change for him. “At USC, we were kind of analytical too, but here it was a whole other level. But I feel like more than anything, it helps you. Like we’re getting feedback all the time on your stats and hustle stats and stuff like that. So I feel like more than anything, it’s good to get that feedback and learn what you got to improve on. I know it’s helped me for sure.”
So nerd ball is a helpful analytical tool, but what exactly is it? Coach Smith gave us the formula that he uses to help determine which players are performing well, and deserve more playing time, and which ones have things to work on. But first, he wanted to describe it “as nerdy as I can. It’s quantifying the intangibles.”
“The formula is winning plays that we have certain values for that aren’t going to show up on a normal box score, minus non-winning plays, turnovers, other things, divided by possessions. That’s your HPP, which is your hustle points per possession.” He also included that there is somewhere in the realm of 55 stats that go into this calculation, but that it all boils down to winning plays minus losing plays. “Guys that make more winning plays get to play more.”
The goal of nerd ball seemingly isn’t to use analytics to change the game of basketball completely, but instead to create a reward program that is tangible and that the players are able to grasp. The reward in this scenario is more playing time, and with the best performers on the court more often, the team’s result is generally more wins.
“We’re trying to establish winning habits.”
We also got nerdy with coach Smith, and asked him what the threshold for these numbers to take effect is. Like in baseball you need a certain number of innings to qualify for the ERA title, so what is the qualifying metric for nerd ball? “Possessions. Probably about 500 possessions.”
Nerd ball will be on full display when the Stanford Cardinal take on Denver at home. The season opener will be at 1 p.m. PT, with the Stanford women’s team taking the court at 7 p.m. against Le Moyne.
As for who will be in the starting five…or six, or seven, the guys he named were guard Oziyah Sellers, guard Jaylen Blakes, guard Benny Gealer, forward Chisom Okpara, forward Aidan Cammann, guard Ryan Agarwal, center Maxime Raynaud and when he gets healthy, forward Donavin Young.
Nothing is set in stone, and Smith expects the roster to remain fluid this year, but the three out of that group that he could see remaining in there more often than not would be Maxime, who will play as long as he’s healthy, Blakes, who has been solid defensively, and Gealer, who has been rock-solid with his shooting and ball handling, he’ll be in there too.
For those that are trying to crack that starting seven, the formula is at their fingertips.
