In our everlasting mission to predict the future, a top-down look at how an offense might attack their opponent’s defense is, in my humble estimation, a good place to start.
We find defenses every season that profile as a so-called run funnel, meaning opponents lean unusually hard on the rushing attack in neutral and positive game scripts. The same goes for pass funnels: Defenses that are regularly attacked through the air in neutral situations (generally meaning when the game is within seven points either way).
Identifying those matchups is the point of this column. This funnel defense analysis should not be the end-all-be-all for how you determine your weekly fantasy plays. It is but another data point in your brain-rattling decision making on who to play and who to bench.
Pass Funnel Matchups
Packers vs. Jaguars
We could finally, at long last, get something of a high-volume passing outing for Jordan Love and the Packers, who have been run-first or balanced since Love’s return from injury.
Jacksonville is now the league’s most pronounced pass funnel defense. Jaguars opponents are both avoiding a rush defense allowing the seventh lowest yards before contact per rush and the third lowest rushing success rate, and attacking a generous secondary giving up the NFL’s highest drop back EPA. Every single one of the Jaguars’ 2024 opponents have been over their expected pass rate. Only four teams have faced a higher neutral pass rate in 2024.
The Packers, meanwhile, seem more comfortable leaning on Love two months after his opening day knee injury. They were 5 percent over their expected drop back rate last week against Houston, leading to a season-high 37 drop backs and 33 pass attempts.
Jacked-up pass volume will be a boon for Jayden Reed, Romeo Doubs, and Tucker Kraft — and possibly Christian Watson. Doubs, never a real target commander, is fresh off ten targets in Week 7 against Houston. I’d be skeptical of that kind of target distribution, but a pass-heavy script against the Jaguars could lead to another solid outing for Doubs.
I would be remiss — and I’m never remiss — if I didn’t mention that the Packers are the NFL’s fifth most extreme pass funnel. This shapes up as a matchup with plenty of offensive snaps on both sides of the ball. Some are saying it’s a good fantasy environment. Others agree.
Browns vs. Ravens
The zoomers are about to discover the vaunted Jameis Winston Experience. The irrepressible Winston will throw into any window at any time for any reason. He’ll make Brett Favre look like Alex Smith. He’ll throw the best pass you’ve ever seen followed by the worst single football play you’ve ever seen. Winston is, for better or worse, fantastic for fantasy.
We should expect nothing different in his first 2024 start for the Browns. They take on the Ravens, the second most extreme pass funnel and a mainstay of this space since Week 2. Among the league’s stiffest rush defenses, the Ravens leave opponents no choice but to air it out. We saw it again last week: The Bucs had a 67 percent drop back rate against Baltimore (which was somehow 2 percent under expected). Baltimore opponents have been at least 7 percent over their expected pass rate in four of seven games this season. That’s a lot.
Winston is going to drop back roughly 100 times in Week 8, per the analytics in my head right now. There’s zero chance the Browns will be able to establish it against the heavily-favored Ravens. Winston and the Browns will be chasing points from start to finish and it could be glorious for David Njoku and Jerry Jeudy and Cedric Tillman. It also makes Winston interesting for those scraping by at quarterback.
Game script here could be so weird that one could start Winston and the Ravens defense and fare just fine. Let it rip with Cleveland pass catchers in Week 8.
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Titans vs. Lions
I feel gross writing about the Tennessee offense but I must tell you, dear funnel-loving reader, that the Titans match up against the league’s third most extreme pass funnel defense in Week 8.
The Titans are fresh off a 66 percent drop back rate against the Bills in Week 7, 2 percent over their expected rate. It didn’t generate much volume for anyone besides Calvin Ridley, who had nine most fruitless targets. With DeAndre Hopkins escaping to the Chiefs this week, Ridley could easily see double digit looks against the Lions. Tyler Boyd could also be in play if you’re scraping absolute bottom in deep formats.
Whether those opportunities will amount to anything is impossible to know.
Dolphins vs. Cardinals
The return of Tua probably means the Miami offense goes back to normal as the team plays out the stretch in what is likely the final year of the Mike McDaniel era. Tyreek Hill, for one, has urged fantasy managers to fire him up with unbridled confidence in Week 8 against Arizona. He did not specify league scoring.
Though Cardinals opponents are slightly below their expected pass rate on the season, we’re seeing something of a trend toward the pass against Arizona: Each of the team’s past four opponents are at least 5 percent over their expected pass rate. Since Week 4, only four teams are a more extreme pass funnel than the Cards. Arizona, allowing the NFL’s third highest completion rate over expected, has invited teams to establish the pass.
It sets up nicely for Tua and the Dolphins. They surely want to re-establish themselves as analytics darlings after being unable to operate an NFL-caliber offense over the past month. I’m not as confident in this call as I am about the Packers or Browns going pass heavy. McDaniel, after all, is first and foremost a run establisher when game script allows it. But the Dolphins in Week 8 are bound to go from the NFL’s run heaviest offense to an above average pass rate over expected. That’s enough to make Tua, Hill, and Jaylen Waddle interesting. Jonnu Smith, who has seen a target on 32 percent of his pass routes over the past two weeks, should be in consideration for folks struggling at tight end.
Run Funnel Matchups
Bears vs. Commanders
Lost in the discourse around the public being robbed of a Caleb-Jayden Week 8 matchup is the Commanders becoming one of the league’s most reliable run funnel defenses. It makes a lot of sense: Washington is giving up the fifth highest rush EPA and the third highest rate of rush yards before contact, a key metric in identifying weak run defenses.
The Bears, meanwhile, has very much shown a willingness to establish it when the matchup calls for it. They are 5 percent below their expected drop back rate over their past three games, posting a low 52 percent drop back rate in those games. Chicago is more likely than not to run the ball at a gaudy clip against a Washington defense that since Week 4 profiles as the NFL’s most pronounced run funnel.
D’Andre Swift is the obvious beneficiary here. He’s seen 68 percent of the Bears’ running back rushes on the season and continues being fed where it counts the most: The green zone. Only eight backs have more inside-the-10 rushes than Swift and only six have more totes inside the five. Swift enters Week 8 with as much touchdown upside as anyone not named Derrick Henry.
What this might mean for Caleb Williams and the Bears pass catchers is quite different. Since the Bears shifted to a run-first approach, Williams has averaged 229 passing yards per game at 5.9 air yards per attempt, the lowest mark in the league since Week 4. It leaves precious little pass game juice for anyone besides DJ Moore and maybe Keenan Allen.
Broncos vs. Panthers
The Javonte Williams renaissance — a nice little surprise for all my down-bad best ball teams — could continue into Week 8 in a matchup with a hideously bad Carolina defense. Giving up the league’s fourth highest rushing success rate and the third lowest rushing stuff rate (34 percent), the Panthers profile as the NFL’s fourth most pronounced run funnel.
No team has seen more rushing attempts against them than the Panthers in 2024. That the Broncos haven’t been run heavy this season won’t preclude them from establishing it against Carolina in Week 8. The elite Broncos defense should help generate all the positive game script Javonte will need to see another 15-18 touches as the top guy in the Denver backfield.
Patriots vs. Jets
Will this game feature a lot of neutral game script? Probably not. Could it? Well, maybe, considering the Jets stink. It’s in this non-blowout scenario that I think the Patriots can and will establish the run against New York, the league’s third most extreme run funnel through Week 7.
Three of the Jets’ past four opponents have been at least 6 percent below their expected pass rate. Teams facing the Jets are passing the ball at a 51 percent rate in neutral situations (one score game) — the third lowest mark in the NFL. While their pass defense has been fine, the Jets are giving up the eighth highest rushing success rate and the sixth highest yards after contact per rush on the season.
Rhamondre Stevenson, who remains the presumed lead back in the Patriots backfield, has a path — however narrow — to decent rush volume in a favorable matchup. He shouldn’t be totally written off by fantasy managers this week.
Texans vs. Colts
Colts opponents are now 18 percent below their expected pass rate on the season. Everyone is turning hard toward the run against a miserable Colts defense, which is getting no favors from the stuck-in-the-mud Colts offense hoping and praying their quarterback will do one positive thing.
You know this already but it’s another Joe Mixon week. The run-loving Texans, who were 9 percent below their expected drop back rate in Week 1 against the horseshoes, will undoubtedly bash the Colts via the rush from start to finish. That could (should) obliterate pass volume for Tank Dell and Stefon Diggs and the rest of the Houston pass catchers. It could also make CJ Stroud a borderline starting option in 12-team leagues.
