Vaughn Dalzell breaks down his favorite player props and first-quarter plays in Mavericks and Timberwolves, plus Nuggets and Nets.
Lauri Markkanen O/U 31.5 PTS + REB vs. Kings
In 10 career games versus the Kings, Markkanen has recorded eight or more rebounds in two of those contests and hit 32 or more combined points and rebounds in two of those.
Yet, to start the season, Markkanen has a prop line of 7.5 rebounds and 31.5 combined points + rebounds. He’s grabbed at least eight rebounds in three games, but I think that trend likely discontinues, not to mention his shooting lately.
Markkanen is shooting 8-of-32 from the field in the last two games, his worst two-game stretch of his career. Markknane went 4-of-15 last night versus Dallas and scored 17 points. I like the Under 31.5 Points and Rebounds (-115) on Markkanen down to 30.5.
Pick: Lauri Markkanen Under 31.5 Points + Rebounds (1.5u)
Klay Thomspon O/U 15.5 Points at Timberwolves
Klay Thomspon has come out blazing for Dallas this season scoring 18 or more points in all three games, yet he has a points prop of 15.5 for this contest.
It’s the second night of a back-to-back where he scored 18 points in 28 minutes against Utah last night. Thomspon and Mavericks left Dallas for Minnesota and the 34-year-old finds himself in his first game with no rest for the Mavericks.
Last season he averaged a surprising 19.5 points per game over 14 no-rest spots, but I think that number will drop this season with a new team. He also hasn’t recorded a free throw in two straight games relying on the three-ball.
Jaden McDaniels, Mike Conley, and Anthony Edwards will be the primary defenders switching on and off Thompson, which is good enough for me. Give me Thomspon Under 15.5 Points.
Pick: Klay Thomspon Under 15.5 Points (1.5u)
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Draymond Green O/U 20.5 PRA vs Pelicans
Steph Curry is out and Andrew Wiggins is a game-time decision against New Orleans, so a load of Golden State players will have an increase of usage.
Draymond Green is averaging 4.3 points, 4.3 rebounds, and 3.0 assists through three games (11.6 PRA), so I am not sure the correction to 19.5 and 20.5 PRA without those two players is correct.
Green has gone 1-of-6 from the field in the past two games with two free-throw attempts. Green has posted more than six individual points, rebounds, or assists in a game yet this year. I don’t expect it to start here.
Pick: Draymond Green Under 20.5 PRA (1u)
Mavericks 1Q Team Total Under 27.5 (+100) at Timberwolves
Dallas has scored 27, 26, and 20 points in the first quarter of its three games this season and is now playing the second night of a back-to-back on the road. That’s not a great situation for Dallas and Minnesota has plenty of defensive bodies to throw at Luka Doncic, Kyrie Irving, and Klay Thompson.
The Mavericks went over this 27.5 first-quarter team total prop three of four times against Minnesota last season with the lone Under coming on the second night of a back-to-back. Give me Mavs 1Q Team Total Under 27.5 at +100 odds.
Pick: Dallas Mavericks 1Q Team Total Under 27.5 (+100)
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Nuggets 1Q Team Total Under 28.5 (+100) at Nets
Denver scored 24, 19, and 29 first-quarter points to start the season, but is playing the second night of a back-to-back at Brooklyn. Denver beat the Raptors in Toronto last night, but it took OT (127-125), while the Nets were off.
The Nuggets are not in good form right now. Last year, Denver scored 28 and 29 points in the first quarter against the Nets, so this prop is right on those numbers. I played Denver 1Q Team Total Under 28.5 at +105 odds.
Pick: Nuggets 1Q Team Total Under 28.5 (1u)
Season Record: 15-8 (65.2%) +7.78 units
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