Arizona Cardinals
Marvin Harrinson Jr. ran 42 percent of his routes from the slot
That’s a season-high in slot routes from the rookie receiver. He was targeted twice and caught one pass from the slot, but it’s the thought that counts from OC Alex Van Pelt. Harrison Jr. also cut his rate of go routes from 26 percent heading into Week 8 to 17 percent last week. Harrison Jr. in turn, caught six passes for 111 yards and a touchdown. MHJ doesn’t need to be used like Tyreek Hill to be productive, but a little more creativity will go a long way.
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Atlanta Falcons
Kyle Pitts is eighth among tight ends in yards per route run (1.81)
He has the fourth-most receiving yards for a tight end and is the TE4 in PPR scoring. On the other hand, Pitts is still last among 23 qualified tight ends in ESPN’s Open Score and 17th in PFF’s receiving grade. Pitts has gotten by on making the occasional big play. He is the only tight end with three receptions for 40+ yards. On a third hand, that is exactly what you want Pitts to be doing. He is a big, field-stretching receiver who is too large (lorge) for corners and too fast for linebackers.
not an exaggeration to say these are the two plays in Kyle Pitts career that most closely resemble the ‘matchup nightmare’ we all thought he could be
1. Size + physicality to throw off a DB in man cvg
2. MOF full speed route, long strides & strength to run away from the defense pic.twitter.com/ewGujHofO0— Josh Norris (@JoshNorris) October 29, 2024
Pitts will inevitably hit a valley of fantasy production, but his big-play potential makes him worth starting through the down weeks.
Baltimore Ravens
Zay Flowers is one of five receivers with three 100-yard games this year
All three of Flowers’ games over the century mark have come in the past month. Flowers has a 28 percent target share and a 31 percent air yards share over his past four games despite spending most of Week 7 as a decoy after suffering an ankle injury early in the contest.
Buffalo Bills
Keon Coleman has been targeted on 24 percent of the Bills’ non-first-read throws over the past two weeks
That number was at a dreadful 6.3 percent heading into Week 7. Coleman was being schemed first-read looks but couldn’t make anything happen when the play wasn’t designed specifically for him. That has entirely flipped in his pair of breakout performances. Coleman hasn’t just improved his ability to earn targets off script. He has also boosted his first-read target share from 20 percent to 29 percent between those splits. Coleman is improving on all fronts midway through his rookie season.
Carolina Panthers
Jalen Coker leads the Panthers in yards per route run (1.74) and PFF receiving grade (80.1)
The UDFA broke out in Week 8 with four catches for 78 yards and a touchdown. Coker was a small school dominator, racking up 1,949 yards and 26 touchdowns in his final two seasons at Holy Cross. He also registered an 8.54 RAS at the NFL Combine on the back of the best vertical jump of the weekend.
Coker ran a route on 80 percent of Bryce Young’s dropbacks last week, earned an 18 percent target share, and accounted for 34 percent of the team’s air yards. He has all of the makings of a breakout candidate over the second half of the season.
Chicago Bears
D’Andre Swift is averaging 19.3 fantasy points per game over his past four games
Swift has improved in every way possible. He posted 19.4 fantasy points in total over the first three weeks of the season. That’s now his weekly score. He also went from 14.3 touches per game to 21.3. Most importantly, Swift’s mark of 1.7 yards after contact was last in the NFL through three weeks. He has since averaged 3.2 YAC per carry.
Cincinnati Bengals
Mike Gesicki has an 18 percent target share when Tee Higgins is inactive
His air yards share in those games is 22 percent. Gesicki goes from being a stone cold zero with Higgins available to a potential TE1 with him out.
Cleveland Browns
Jameis Winston attempted 495 air yards
That is the ninth-most air yards total for a quarterback in a single game this season. It was Winston’s first start in Cleveland. Winston led the NFL with 14 intermediate pass attempts—throws 10-19 yards downfield—and intermediate yards (153).
Dallas Cowboys
The Cowboys are bottom-five in yards before and after contact per carry
Dallas is also bottom-five as a team in:
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Missed tackles forced per carry – .13
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Explosive run rate – 6.4 percent
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First down rate on rush attempts – 20.4 percent
No team has ever needed to trade for Khalil Herbert more than the 2024 Dallas Cowboys
Denver Broncos
Bo Nix is seventh in the NFL in passing touchdowns over the past four weeks
Nix’s 7:1 touchdown to interception ratio and his three top-10 fantasy finishes all feel a bit fluky, but he’s performed well by most measures during those games. PFF ranks him as their No. 8 passer since Week 5 and he has gained at least six fantasy points on the ground in every game during that stretch. He was PFF’s No. 31 passer over the first month of the season.
Detroit Lions
Sam LaPorta earned a 33 percent target share
LaPorta’s six targets were a season-high and he blew by his previous best mark in target share. The Lions were without Jameson Williams, who has one game left on his two-week PED suspension, and turned to 2023’s TE1. On top of Williams’ absence, Week 8 was made in a lab to be a LaPorta game. LaPorta was an elite red zone tight end as a rookie. The Lions had five drives start inside the Tennessee 30-yard line last week. LaPorta earned two-thirds of his target in the red zone and had an aDOT of 1.7 yards.
Green Bay Packers
Malik Willis completed 25 passes in his two starts earlier this year
He threw for 324 yards while the Packers leaned on their ground game.
They had a -21% pass rate over expected with Willis under center. This is all potentially relevant because Jordan Love left Week 8 with a groin injury and did not return, putting his availability for Week 9 in doubt.
Houston Texans
C.J. Stroud has averaged 14.7 fantasy points in three games without Nico Collins
Stroud attempted far fewer passes in those three games. Even writing that off as unrelated to the loss of Collins (it’s not), his YPA has fallen to six in three games without his No. 1 receiver.
With Stefon Diggs also out of the lineup, Stroud is a clear fade until Collins returns.
Indianapolis Colts
Joe Flacco is fourth in the NFL in EPA per play (min. 100 dropbacks)
Flacco is also top-10 in completion percent over expected. Anthony Richardson was 30th and 37th in the two metrics before being benched. Flacco’s return to the lineup puts Josh Downs back in the WR2 ranks and could get Michael Pittman in there as well.
Jacksonville Jaguars
Evan Engram averaged 10.4 targets per game over the final five weeks of the 2023 season
Those were all games that Christian Kirk missed due to a core injury. He is now out for the remainder of the 2024 season with a broken collarbone. Engram earned 27 percent of the Jags’ targets without Kirk and averaged 18.9 fantasy points per game. Jacksonville could also be without Brian Thomas Jr. and Gabe Davis, both of whom suffered injuries in Week 8, for a few weeks as well.
Kansas City Chiefs
Travis Kelce has a 31 percent target share since Week 4
Week 4 is when Rashee Rice went down with a season-ending knee injury early in the game. Kelce had taken a backseat to Rice heading into that game with a measly 15 percent target share. That has since doubled and he is averaging 15.4 fantasy points per game over his past four contests.
Las Vegas Raiders
Zamir White has five carries over the past two weeks
White returned from his groin injury in Week 7 and saw four touches. The low-volume game could have been excused as a product of the injury and Las Vegas easing him back into the lineup. That theory was dispelled in Week 8 when he ran two times for -1 yards. Alexander Mattison has seen 75 percent of the Raiders’ carries over the past two weeks.
Los Angeles Chargers
The Chargers have +3% pass rate over expected since their Week 5 bye
LA’s PROE before their bye was at -10%.
Justin Herbert’s peak game was 27 attempts and 179 yards heading into his week off. He has topped both numbers in all three subsequent games and is averaging 288 passing yards since the bye.
Los Angeles Rams
Puka Nacua was targeted on 41 percent of his routes
Nacua came off injured reserve and immediately cemented himself as LA’s No. 1 receiver despite running a route on just 65 percent of Matthew Stafford’s dropbacks. He earned a 27 percent target share and a 41 percent first-read target share. Cooper Kupp was heavily involved as well, but he fell short of Nacua in every volume metric while running more routes.
Miami Dolphins
De’Von Achane averaged 3.1 rush yards over expected per carry
Achane entered Week 8 averaging -1 rush yards over expected per attempt. That mark is better than only Ezekiel Elliott among qualified running backs. Luckily for us, Achane turned things around in Tua Tagovailoa’s first game back in the lineup, so we don’t need to stare into the advanced stats abyss any longer. Achane ran 10 times for 97 yards and caught six passes for 50 yards and a touchdown.
Minnesota Vikings
Aaron Jones out-carried Ty Chandler 33-2 in Weeks 7 and 8
Chandler did not touch the ball in Week 8. Jones earned a 92 percent snap share and ran a route on 72 percent of Sam Darnold’s dropbacks. The Vikings are a good offense. Jones is an efficient back. And he’s seeing nearly every touch in the backfield. He has RB1 potential if this usage holds.
New England Patriots
The Patriots have not had a wide receiver hit 70 yards in Jacoby Brissett’s six appearances
The team only has three receiver games over 40 yards with Brissett under center. Hunter Henry has the team’s one breakout game through the air with a 109-yard outing in Week 2. If Drake Maye misses Week 9—he suffered a concussion last week—we don’t need to concern ourselves with their wideouts.
New Orleans Saints
Chris Olave earned 36 percent of the Saints’ targets
Olave dominated the Saints’ air yards with a 57 percent air yards share. He caught eight passes for 107 yards, tying his season-high in receptions and setting a new high-water mark in yardage. Week 8 was his first game without Rashid Shaheed. The Saints are also expected to get Derek Carr back for Week 9.
New York Giants
Tyrone Tracy ran for more yards in Week 8 (145) than Saquon Barkley did in a single game in 2023
Tracy ran 20 times for 145 yards and a touchdown versus the Steelers. He could have had an even more explosive day but the rookie suffered a concussion late in the contest and did not return. When healthy, Tracy has earned his spot in the RB2 ranks.
New York Jets
Braelon Allen logged a season-high in carry share
Allen’s role had fallen off under interim head coach Jeff Ulbrich. Allen saw five carries in the wto games after Robert Saleh was fired. That was good for 13 percent of the team’s total attempts. The only time he had a smaller role was in Week 1. Allen was brought back into the fold last week with 12 carries which he turned into 32 yards and a touchdown.
Philadelphia Eagles
Jalen Hurts has five tush push touchdowns over his past four games
Saquon Barkley, in turn, has one touchdown during that stretch. He scored four rushing touchdowns in his first three games. As you may have guessed, Hurts’ tush push total was much lower in those games as he punched in a single short score over the first three weeks of the year. Some of that split can be explained by the Eagles’ needing a few games to work out the kinks of a retooled offensive line. It’s also very random. The tush push only happens when a Philly player is taken down at the one instead of moving the ball three more feet into the end zone. That has happened a lot lately. Barkley’s touchdown production should rebound sooner rather than later.
Seattle Seahawks
Jaxon Smith-Njigba saw 28 percent of the Seahawks’ targets
JSN also accounted for 52 percent of Geno Smith’s air yards despite having an underwhelming aDOT of seven. Seattle couldn’t get anything going on offense versus the Bills, so JSN’s market share numbers mostly fell on deaf ears. DK Metcalf missed Week 8 and is status for Week 9 is up in the air. If he missed another game, things should turn around for JSN versus a Rams defense that ranks 25th in EPA per dropack.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Sean Tucker played seven offensive snaps
Tucker’s snap share fell from 19 percent two weeks ago to 10 percent last week. His carry shares were the exact same (19 and 10) in those two games.
#Bucs HC Todd Bowles on Sean Tucker only playing 7 snaps and whether he’s the lesser third of the three-headed monster:
“I think it’ll change every week. We got behind, and that was probably less Tucker’s thing. But he’s gonna get more touches, he’s gonna get more plays and more… pic.twitter.com/drWME2rnGu
— The Coachspeak Index (@CoachspeakIndex) October 28, 2024
Head coach Todd Bowles noted that Tucker’s role would grow in games with a less pass-heavy script. The Bucs are 8.5-point underdogs this week, so Tucker truther may be stuck waiting a while before he resurfaces.
Tennessee Titans
Calvin Ridley has seen 50 percent of the Titans’ air yards in Mason Rudolph’s three appearances
Ridley’s target share is up to 29 percent in those games. His gaudy volume stats didn’t translate to fantasy production in the first two games when Rudolph received the majority of the snaps. That changed last week when Ridley caught 10 passes for 143 yards.
Both Calvin Ridley’s 10 receptions and 143 yards yesterday were his most since Week 15 2020
— Patrick Daugherty (@RotoPat) October 28, 2024
Washington Commanders
Brian Robinson earned a 64 percent carry share
Robinson ran 16 times for 65 yards while Austin Ekeler only saw seven attempts. The Commanders are still using Ekeler as a change-of-pace option. He’s also their preferred choice on passing downs. However, Robinson’s role has stabilized as the primary option between the tackles on a team that ranks third in points per game.
