On Saturday, City of Troy, the Derby winner, will bid to conquer Flat racing’s Everest and win the $7million Breeders’ Cup Classic at Del Mar. The race has only once been won by a European horse, Arcangues, who caused one of the biggest upsets in racing history when he triumphed at 133-1 in 1993.
Why is it such a challenge for European horses? Mainly because it is run on dirt, a more popular surface in the United States than turf. Victory in the Classic, a race trainer Aidan O’Brien has already tried and failed to win 17 times, would garner him instant greatness. From a commercial point of view, it would make City of Troy popular as a sire on either side of the Atlantic.
Even though City of Troy is sired by a US Triple Crown-winning dirt horse Justify, the worry for European horses first time out on the surface is not so much their ability to gallop out on it but, if he finds himself in behind horses – which is 90 per cent certain from stall three – how he handles the kickback, which will be like running into a sand storm.
If he can cope with that, he will likely win. We know he is good but this will tell us if he is great. So, what attributes does City of Troy have that make him so special? O’Brien runs through them here.
1 – Mind
For the greats, ability is only the x in the equation, the head is the y. “He’s such a relaxed horse, he’s bombproof,” O’Brien says. “He’s an independent thinker, in a string of 80 horses, all the others could be freaking out, he doesn’t. He decides himself, he is not controlled by his surroundings.”
From stall three if he misses a beat, his mind is likely to be the first thing tested in the Classic – how he copes with a wall of stinging dirt kickback in his face.
2 – Heart and lungs
The engine room. “He has a big heart and a massive capacity,” O’Brien says. “He’ll jump out the stalls at 180 beats a minute and he’ll stay there. In the last furlong and a half at Southwell, he went up to 240 and stayed there. He’s able to do that for four or five furlongs. That’s very unusual.”
3 – Weight
He is 480kg. To put that into context Don Frankie in the Sprint comes in at a heavyweight 590kg and with one official record: the heaviest horse in Japan. Most of City of Troy’s US rivals will be a good 520kg-plus. “Petite” is how five-time Classic-winning jockey Jerry Bailey describes him.
4 – Stride
When a bloodstock agent goes shopping for yearlings he can see them only walk. A cheetah is the fastest animal on land and what you are after is something like that; a horse who, when allowed to walk on, over-strides – which is to say, puts the hind foot down beyond the print left by the front foot.
This is also where he is winning, his stride length is incredible for his overall size and his maximum average stride length comes in at 27.4 feet, which compares well with legendary dirt horses such as American Pharoah at 27.1 in the second furlong of the 2015 Kentucky Derby, and Flightline’s 26.9 in the second furlong of the 2022 Pacific Classic.
5 – Hocks
Jockey Ryan Moore reckons his hind legs are a bit like those of a deer and that, as a consequence, allows him to use every bit of himself. He is exceptionally athletic, balanced, agile and beautifully proportioned.
6 – Tail colour
He has a flaxen (blond) tail which is pretty rare on a bright bay. This is inherited from his dam, Together Forever, who had the same distinctive highlights in her tail. It is an irrelevance when it comes to going faster or slower but just makes him a little more identifiable.
7 – Hindquarters
The power comes from here. He has a strong, powerful hind leg, perfect forward leg, good shoulder, he is short-backed, wide across the hips, and runs with his head out and low which helps him cover the ground very easily. Some of his US rivals will look like they have been pumping iron in the gym, with big chunky shoulders and big, strong backsides, but they are also carrying extra bulk. He will appear much sleeker – which is best for this surface, we will find out soon.
8 – Height
He measures just under 16 hands 1 inch at the wither. His sire, Justify, is probably a full hand bigger. He will be one of the smaller runners in the race, dwarfed by some of his US rivals, partly because he is three and his older rivals have had more time to mature and fill out.
9 – Presence
Presence is not a physical thing, it is a vibe that a horse gives off, its swagger, its sense of owning the place. It is subjective and maybe subconsciously influenced by a horse’s record but, for me, this is where he scores lowest – he does not have great presence.
In the paddock, there is always a rival with more of it, even though they may be of lesser ability. Compare and contrast with Newgate, Frankie Dettori’s mount, or Fierceness in the Classic. They both have presence in buckets. Does a good horse have to have presence? No, but Frankel had it in spades.
Tale of the tape
City of Troy
(stats provided by Total Performance Data and RaceIQ)
Record: 6 wins from 7 starts.
Sire: Justify
Dam: Together Forever
Prize-money: £2,383,614
Official Rating: 128
Classic odds: 7/4 favourite
Top speed: 41.65
0-30 mph: 4.8 secs
Run out speed (speed two seconds after the finish) 34.27 (Fierceness 31.05 and Sierra Leone 33.05 and Forever Young 33.26 – at 20 per cent down on their top speed this suggests they have less left after the line than City of Troy).
Fastest furlong: 11.02 (Fierceness and Sierra Leone are very close to 11.50).
