After Week 4, I took some time to check in on the 2024 NFL Draft class and how they were performing for fantasy football managers. Now, with another month in the books, it’s time to revisit. Here’s a look at several rookies who have had a memorable four weeks — for better or for worse.
Biggest surprise: QB Bo Nix, Denver Broncos
There may not have been a rookie QB whose value for fantasy football was met with more skepticism than Bo Nix this offseason. Did we miss the signs of a budding fantasy star? Maybe. Through the first half of the fantasy season, Nix ranks as the overall QB9 on the year, scoring 19 or more fantasy points in four of his past six outings.
Though he still has some progress to make as a passer, he’s come a long way over the past four weeks; take a look at some of his passing metrics from Weeks 1-4 vs. Weeks 5-8 per PFF:
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4.8 YPA ➡️ 7.1
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62.5 NFL passer rating ➡️ 102.7
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7.8 aDOT ➡️ 9.3
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55.8% accurate throw rate ➡️ 67.0%
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1 TD, 4 INT ➡️ 7 TD, 1 INT
Those improvements in the passing game paired with his rushing upside (32.4 rushing yards per game, 4 total TDs) have earned him three top-10 finishes over the past four weeks despite the less-than-impressive Broncos’ receiving corps available to him — a fact most would have scoffed at ahead of the season.
Slowly rising: WR Keon Coleman, Buffalo Bills
It feels like the excitement has settled a bit after the Bills opted to trade for Amari Cooper, but don’t let his arrival discount the week-over-week improvements for rookie Keon Coleman.
Though he continues to struggle to create space against opposing defenders — an issue for him coming out of Florida State — averaging just 2.2 yards of separation that ranks fifth-lowest among WRs with 25+ targets, he’s been quite efficient with his opportunities this year. He’s earned a 131.5 passer rating when targeted (sixth-highest), 11.6 yards per target (eighth-most) and 9.0 yards after the catch per reception (second-most).
Coleman has been a dominant outside threat who’s quietly earned seven targets in each of the past two outings. There’s a real possibility that Cooper’s arrival can aid Coleman’s development as a consistent perimeter threat with a propensity to make jaw-dropping catches.
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Biggest disappointment: WR Xavier Worthy, Kansas City Chiefs
The Kansas City Chiefs traded up to select speedy WR Xavier Worthy in the first round in an effort to get MVP Patrick Mahomes some weaponry, and it very quickly seemed like that investment was going to pay off; he had two scrimmage TDs (68 total yards) in his first career game. However, despite plenty of opportunity to carve out an immediate role in the offense and a versatile skillset due to season-ending injuries to teammates Hollywood Brown and Rashee Rice, Worthy still hasn’t popped with a consistent presence.
Worthy is more than just a speed merchant; he can win on speed, sure, but he can also generate separation with his ability as a route runner, including the potential to play both out of the slot and lined up out wide. He’s also more than capable when deployed as a runner in the backfield. Still, the addition of DeAndre Hopkins isn’t great for a potential increased target share, having had four or fewer targets in half of his games this year, and his 22.9% deep target rate doesn’t do much to limit his volatility, given that those are low-probability targets.
Through eight weeks of the season, Worthy is on a 17-game pace for a 46-571-7 receiving line.
Biggest question mark: RB Jonathon Brooks, Carolina Panthers
There were a number of fantasy football managers who took a shot on Brooks once news broke that he could be set for a relatively early return this season from a torn ACL. First, the reports indicated that the Carolina Panthers hoped to have him back around Week 3 … then, they placed him on the PUP list, making him eligible to return in Week 5. Then, they designated him for return to practice in mid-October but haven’t yet added him to their active roster, though he could be set to make a Week 9 debut.
In short, it’s been a roller coaster. And for what? We don’t really know yet.
There’s no doubt that Brooks was the best running back prospect in this draft class with a uniquely well-rounded skill set for a one-year full-time starter at the position; he can run, he can catch passes, he excels in pass protection. However, the Panthers are clearly taking a long-term approach with their young back in what is already a lost season, and it doesn’t seem like they’re in a rush to hand him an RB1 workload. After all, they have the luxury not to, with the way that Chuba Hubbard has stepped up this year.
It’s feeling more and more like Brooks is either a league-winning asset or a lineup-buster through the rest of the season, and perhaps there’s not much room in between.
League-winner: TE Brock Bowers, Las Vegas Raiders
I highlighted Brock Bowers as a winner at an unwinnable position in my last rookie report, and that continues to ring true. This time, I’ve upped the ante with my description, officially willing to dub him a league-winner for fantasy football managers, barring injury. Bowers currently sits as the TE2 in half-PPR scoring formats despite just a single TD on the year, ranked sixth in the NFL with 64 targets so far this season while leading the league in receptions (52) and ranking 11th in receiving yards.
Yep. You read that all correctly.
Bowers is producing like a wide receiver despite his standing as a tight end — one of fantasy football’s most volatile positions. If you were lucky (AKA, smart) enough to draft Bowers at his preseason ADP of 111.8, congratulations: you’ve won the TE position.
Secret stash for later: RB Jaylen Wright, Miami Dolphins (7% rostered)
The Miami Dolphins faded into the background without Tua Tagovailoa under center, but now that he’s back, it’s wheels-up for the rest of the offense. That includes rookie RB Jaylen Wright … even if he doesn’t have an immediate pathway to a significant role just yet.
While there’s no doubt that teammate De’Von Achane is the RB1 in this offense, RB2 Raheem Mostert is 32 years old and has already dealt with some injuries this year. If he is to miss any more time (or lose work due to inefficiency, averaging a career-low 3.5 YPC), Wright could be in an excellent position to maintain some weekly flex value with upside.
Among RBs with 30+ carries this season, Wright ranks top seven in yards per carry (5.3), rushing grade (89.0), yards after contact per attempt (3.61) and elusive rating (120.4) per PFF. He offers an elite combination of size and athleticism (5-foot-10, 210 pounds running a 4.38 40-yard dash) which could make him a high-upside stash if he earns the opportunity.
