5 things I care about
In a messy NFC, the Lions are ultra-clean
Who is the second-best team in the NFC?
That’s a tricky question to answer right now, as the conference feels jumbled on the second tier. What’s not in doubt is the class of the conference. That team is the ultra-clean Detroit Lions.
Detroit proved itself again with an emphatic win on the road against a division rival in Week 9. The final score says the Lions beat the Packers by just 10 points. It never felt that close throughout the evening.
The Packers averaged more yards per play, with 6.6 to 4.7 yards for the Lions. Their third-down efficiency was within shouting distance, going three of 12 compared to four of 12 for Detroit. It wasn’t a particularly flashy game for the Lions offense but they just got the job done. That’s what they do because they’re such a clean operation regardless of conditions.
In the postgame press conference, Dan Campbell said that any notion of surprise that his football team wasn’t built to win a game like this — a hardnosed game in the elements — is foolish. I’m paraphrasing but Campbell almost seemed amused at the contrary simply because they were a dome team.
He’s right.
We know the Lions as this high-flying offensive team that produces multiple starting fantasy pass-catchers and frequently invites teams into shootouts in their home dome. That’s a part of who they are but not all they are. It’s certainly never been the core beliefs of the people in charge of this club.
In their heart of hearts the Lions want to be a team that pounds on you with its ground game, beats you up on defense and leans on opponents until they topple. That’s the team we saw in Week 9. Green Bay was powerless to slow down the onslaught of the Lions’ ground game. Both David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs steadily eroded time on the game clock until the final whistle sounded. The two backs averaged a combined 5.1 yards per carry and neither had a run longer than 18 yards. It was a slow but resounding victory on the ground for the top team in the NFC.
While Jared Goff and the passing game was not the center of the story, his performance once again defined the clean nature of this football team. Next Gen Stats had Goff with a +24.2% completion rate over expected in the first three quarters of Week 9. Few players have been as efficient as Goff this season.
In an overall tidy win over a division rival, the Lions showed why they’re the best team in the NFC. Frankly, at this point, it’s not remotely close nor is it surprising that the Lions have asserted their dominance over this conference.
As Campbell said, they are “built for this” and many other challenges that will come over the course of the season.
A Vikings defense that had sprung some leaks in recent weeks once again looked like the dominant unit that terrorized weak passing games to start the season. We know that type of game is always on the table when Brian Flores draws a matchup with a limited quarterback, as we watched on Sunday night.
What impressed me most about the Vikings’ win was the complementary nature of their offense.
Sam Darnold was shaky in moments to start Week 9. Kevin O’Connell did what he’s avoided at times this year: he saddled up Aaron Jones for a massive evening. Jones ran the ball 21 times against the Colts, his second-highest carry total of the year. He didn’t rip off big runs but kept the unit on schedule. Backup Cam Akers also chipped in with seven carries and averaged 7.7 yards a pop.
The passing game was also efficient and balanced once Darnold settled in. Justin Jefferson ran away with the team lead in receiving with a healthy 137 yards but eight other Vikings players caught a pass. Jordan Addison was activated in big moments. In T.J. Hockenson’s first game back, his impact was felt as an underneath target and TE2 Josh Oliver got loose on designed plays behind zone coverage.
Spreading the wealth allowed the Vikings to take timely shots to Jefferson. Next Gen Stats notes that Jefferson caught five of six targets against off-coverage for 95 yards on Sunday. When he’s not the only game in town, you can get the most efficiency out of his targets.
The Vikings offense is getting all of its players back in the fold. Sam Darnold had a nice start to the season and never once had the deck fully stacked on offense. There are injuries up front but last-minute trade option Cam Robinson filled in adequately at left tackle. There’s a gap behind Detroit in the NFC and while this game wasn’t perfect for Minnesota, there are some areas to build off of going forward.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba’s big game
The Seahawks fell in overtime to a Rams team missing its top wideout after a first-half ejection. And yet, it feels like one of the more fascinating storylines from that exciting contest came on the Seattle side after an eruption game from second-year receiver, Jaxon Smith-Njigba.
Smith-Njigba was absolutely electric on Sunday, totaling 180 yards on 13 targets. It could have been an even better day but he had multiple big receptions called back due to penalties committed by an offensive line that was under fire all game. The most notable part of his big day was that it came in ways we haven’t seen through his first two seasons in the NFL.
Shane Waldron had JSN pigeon-holed in a screen-heavy, popgun slot receiver role as a rookie. That just never made any sense considering he was a classic intermediate route runner who could win against man and zone coverage. I expected him to get set loose in that intermediate area more often in Ryan Grubb’s offense because he showed he could win on those routes on film as a rookie, but we hadn’t seen it through the first eight weeks of the season. Everything changed in Week 9, as JSN was set loose down the field as the lead receiver without DK Metcalf on the field.
Was this a one-game fluke against a weak secondary, or was it such an emphatic performance that it demanded some introspection from the coaching staff about his Week 1 to 8 deployment? Obviously, I’d be lying or faux-confident for no reason if I told you I knew the answer.
However, what I know based on studying this player on film for years is that he’s always been capable of being deployed like we saw in Week 9. Perhaps he never got those looks because he’s the superior quick separator on the roster over DK Metcalf or this version of Tyler Lockett. Maybe it’s just bad luck or something else I’m not quite comprehending. At the very least, this being a possible “can’t put the genie back in the bottle” performance for a former Round 1 wide receiver who has been fine but not quite remarkable, from a production standpoint, is at least on my radar.
The Chargers are good
The Chargers offense is coming off another impressive showing in a win over the Browns. The rushing attack provided a steady hand with 6.1 yards per carry for J.K. Dobbins and Justin Herbert efficiently attacked downfield.
Per Next Gen Stats, Herbert was seven of 12 on passes of 10-plus air yards for 196 yards and two scores. He hit complementary receivers like Josh Palmer and Quentin Johnston, who have ideal placement and timing for big plays. Herbert did all this despite dealing with waves of pressure from the Browns’ front and taking six sacks.
The Chargers offense was hand-waved to start the season as a conservative unit run by an offensive coordinator in Greg Roman, who had seen his reputation erode in the later years with Baltimore. If any of that criticism was fair, Herbert has played so well since the bye that he’s made it null and void to the bottom-line results.
That said, the other side of the ball was even better on Sunday, and is the real story of the Chargers season.
Somewhat quietly, the Chargers defense has been a top-five unit all year. They put an authoritative stamp on that status on Sunday.
Next Gen Stats notes that Los Angeles allowed just 38 yards on 15 designed rushes when lining up with a light box in Week 9. That’s not unusual for it, as L.A. has utilized light boxes against the run at the highest rate in the NFL (66.2%). Despite that, it was second in rushing EPA allowed in the first eight weeks of the season.
Few teams can handle rushing attacks with light boxes like that but what the Chargers defense did in the passing game was even more impressive. Los Angeles read Cleveland’s passing game like a book. It was almost never out of position, rarely bit on play-action fakes and smothered what should have been open windows. Jameis Winston is a mistake-prone player but don’t be fooled — the Chargers forced him into these errors in Week 9.
This is not a fluke. The Chargers have been this defense all season. Now that their offense is catching up and Herbert is starting to produce closer to his usual clip, that side of the ball will get the publicity it deserved from Week 1.
The Chargers just look like a good football team.
The Cardinals defense obliterates the Bears
The Arizona Cardinals dominated the line of scrimmage against the Chicago Bears in Week 9.
Yes, those Cardinals.
According to Next Gen Stats, the Cardinals generated pressure on a season-high 46.0% of dropbacks against the Bears and sacked Caleb Williams six times. Even more shocking, 16 different Cardinals defenders recorded a pressure in this win, which was tied for the most by any team in a single game since 2018.
The final slap in the face? The Cardinals ranked 31st in pressure rate coming into Week 9. That’s the team the Bears allowed to toss them around up front all afternoon.
The Bears have more receiving options than they know how to activate with an overmatched coordinator and a rookie quarterback. And all that is paired with an offensive line that just got worked over by one of the NFL’s least dangerous pass rush units. That’s the recipe for an offense that never reaches its theoretical ceiling.
Going into their bye week, I was confident the Bears offense was about to take off after consistent improvement from Caleb Williams and fewer fringe players involved in the target-pecking order. After these last two games, I’m ready to sell that take and, unfortunately, I think it could get worse before it gets better if these protection issues don’t get resolved.
Nothing about this season makes me think that’s right around the corner.
5 things I don’t care about
Overreacting to Jordan Love’s Week 9 game
Tom Brady was not having a good time watching Jordan Love play football in Week 9.
So far this season, it’s been easy to see that Brady enjoys watching well-designed passing games piloted by an ambitious quarterback. That’s usually the perfect description of the Packers under Love but not in Week 9.
Instead, Brady took the tone of a disappointed parent frustrated by Love’s insistence on taking meaningless risks on non-critical downs in weather. That’s the perfect way to describe the way Love played against Detroit. It made it an awkward watch for a quarterback who himself never looked comfortable in the game.
It’s easy to say in hindsight but Love would have benefitted from missing this game and getting an additional week off before their Week 10 bye. Of course, it wasn’t realistic to wave the white flag against a division rival in a matchup that may help decide the winner of the NFC North at the end of the season. That doesn’t change the state that Love operated in during this contest. It was never more clear he was well south of 100% than when he completed a long pass in-bounds to Jayden Reed toward the end of the first half and couldn’t even give a fruitless sprint down to the ball to try and clock it before time expired.
There will be some temptation to overreact to how Love played in this game. Avoid it.
Yes, Love is a volatile quarterback who takes some needless risks. Those moments become more exacerbated when he can’t do the consistent down-to-down job of a quarterback because of his health.
Hopefully, a desperately-needed week off can give us the most healthy version of Love we’ve seen since Week 1 on the other side of the bye. This deep offense needs to live off of efficiency and that just won’t happen without a fully functioning Jordan Love.
The Joe Flacco effect on the Colts offense
Any hope that Joe Flacco was going to come in here and elevate the statistical production for some of these Colts pass-catchers felt ill-fated from the very early moments of their Week 9 matchup with the Vikings. It never got better, as the Colts offense ended the evening with zero trips into the end zone. They didn’t even take a snap into the red zone.
Flacco’s passing numbers don’t look meaningfully better than some of Anthony Richardson’s outings. The veteran completed 59% of his throws at a measly 6.6 yards per attempt.
The areas where Flacco is better than Richardson didn’t matter in Week 9 because the areas where he’s weaker shined brighter. Flacco was a sitting duck in the pocket when his offensive linemen got beat, and his presence under center continued to make the running game significantly worse.
Super small sample size but Jonathan Taylor splits with each QB this year
Joe Flacco: 16 rushes for 58 yards (3.6 ypc)
Anthony Richardson: 76 rushes for 396 (5.2 ypc) and 5 TD
Even in the one game Taylor played with both he averaged 6 ypc with AR and 3.6 with Flacco (vs. Pitt)
— Zach Hicks (@ZachHicks2) October 31, 2024
So many of us pointed out that the problems within the Colts offense ran much deeper than Richardson, who is, without question, a flawed player. Michael Pittman Jr. is playing well below his usual output because he’s gutting it out through a painful back injury. The play of Alec Pierce and Adonai Mitchell has been extremely volatile, at best. The only consistent player for the Colts in the passing game this year has been Josh Downs, who was strangely limited in this game despite coming in with the best on-paper matchup against a Vikings secondary that had allowed the sixth-most yeards to slot receivers.
Downs’ limited snap counts, especially on critical third downs, made no sense … unless there is an injury we don’t know about.
That’s just it with the 2024 Colts; the approach has been confusing, and often times numerous segments have been at odds with one another. The decision to give Richardson a breather was defensible. Any notion that Joe Flacco was going to come in and take the team to the promised land was outright misguided. He didn’t even do the one thing he had in previous outings: getting better raw stats out of a guy like Josh Downs. It was a tough matchup against a ferocious Vikings defense but the schedule ahead isn’t filled with cupcakes the next three weeks as Indianapolis draws the Bills, Jets and Lions.
Only a delusional person could watch this game and, frankly, most of the Colts season and see a Super Bowl contender. So, if Joe Flacco isn’t going to come in the lineup and elevate some of the skill-position players but may actually make a few areas weaker, what’s the point?
My reaction to Shane Steichen calling Flacco the starter “going forward,” was simply … we’ll see. After Week 9, I am already prepared to start the watch to Richardson’s return to the lineup.
Diontae Johnson’s addition, for now
The Diontae Johnson trade to Baltimore made headlines this week as the AFC contender snagged a proven producer at a position where they’ve run out of bodies in recent seasons. By the end of Sunday in Week 9, you probably forgot it happened.
Johnson ran a route on just 27% of the Ravens’ dropbacks, playing behind Rashod Bateman, Zay Flowers and Nelson Agholor. He was not targeted and it didn’t matter. Baltimore did not need him.
Flowers was the man who popped off in Week 9, taking his five catches for 127 yards and two scores. The explosive wideout averaged an outrageous 12 yards after the catch per reception. When Flowers is deployed on intermediate routes and fewer underneath designer nonsense, he can be one of the most impactful receivers with the ball in his hands. He is not about to be knocked off the top of the target totem pole.
The Ravens also didn’t need to take to the air much to beat the Broncos. Derrick Henry was a truck against a strong Denver defense. Credit to the Broncos; they had good gap integrity and the right ideas. It just didn’t work, because Henry is a monster. The veteran back forced a whopping 13 missed tackles, per Next Gen Stats, the most by any player in a game this season.
At some point, the Ravens might need Diontae Johnson and his route running to get by a fellow big-time contender. That time is not now. The Ravens offense was already more than satisfactory before adding Johnson and, as good as he is, they likely won’t go out of their way to force him into the mix.
Jaylen Waddle’s past efficiency
De’Von Achane’s role as a schemed weapon and outlet receiver in the passing game has fundamentally changed the distribution of work in the Miami offense. We have more than enough data in games with the starting quarterback to say this with certainty.
After leading the team in targets in Week 9, Achane now has target totals of seven, seven, eight and eight in the four games Tua Tagovailoa has started this season. He’s caught all but two of those looks. He’s been a great mix of big-play asset and reliable presence for the Dolphins passing attack.
The 2022 and 2023 Dolphins’ wide receivers were a unique duo because of the highly concentrated passing tree. With Achane legitimately earning targets, that equation is forever altered.
The one who will continue to see his production suffer most with Achane’s rise is Jaylen Waddle.
Tyreek Hill gets most of the offense’s motion plays and designed looks as the off-ball receiver. He sees more layups than Waddle, who more often lines up outside and on the line of scrimmage. That role will always be more volatile in general and you feel that even more when a running back starts slicing off even more layup looks from the target tree. Waddle saw just two targets in this Week 9 game and didn’t get his first look until after the two-minute warning in the fourth quarter.
Waddle still gets ranked and viewed positively in the fantasy industry because of his outrageously high per-route efficiency metrics from previous seasons. This is a reminder that those are not exclusively player-owned results; they’re at the mercy of the situation. He’s still a great young receiver who his team was happy to pay big money this offseason. The situation he’s operating in just doesn’t mirror what we watched in the prior two seasons.
Waddle will be a highly volatile producer going forward.
The 2024 Dallas Cowboys
The Cowboys are 3-5 with a big division matchup against the Eagles next week. And yet, that game just doesn’t feel like it matters. If Dak Prescott, who left Week 9 with hamstring and throwing-hand injuries, misses any time, any razor-thin margin for error this team has is shattered.
Their season is over.
Team owner Jerry Jones made some comments eluding to moves coming at the trade deadline to salvage the year. For starters, I don’t believe him. Even if he did have something “in the mix,” it’s beyond too little, too late for any season-defining moves.
This roster needed more care and attention in the offseason, not at the last minute. It was obvious to everyone except the people who run the team.
We all knew coming into the season that the Cowboys offense was undermanned. They just didn’t have enough threatening players at the skill-position spots beyond CeeDee Lamb and the offensive line was a unit in transition. Nothing has gone right on that side of the ball. Defensively, we thought Mike Zimmer’s hire may bring about a new and more physical brand of football. Instead, Zimmer’s ideas look a step behind and that unit has become one of the least interesting groups in the game.
A team like this needs absolutely flawless play from its quarterback to be a playoff outfit. Prescott hasn’t given them that level when he’s been on the field this year — even if he’s not among the most problematic members of this team — and if he misses time, it’s just over for the 2024 Cowboys.
