‘Bama Basketball Breakdown: Arkansas State brings a familiar face —and style of play— to Tuscaloosa

Alabama, fresh off a 110-54 defenestration of UNC Asheville does not exactly return to Coleman for a breezy exhibition. Game Two of the season is a team led by a man who knows Alabama and Nate Oats more intimately than most: Nate’s long-time assistant, Bryan Hodgson and his Arkansas State Red Wolves.

Tale of the Tape: Arkansas State (1-0) at No. 2 Alabama (1-0)

Spread (Totals): Alabama -18.5 (167) (projected)

ASU KenPom: 120 (101 offense, 157 defense, 102 tempo)
ASU Evan Miya: 115 (101 offense, 148 defense, 142 tempo)
ASU Bart Torvik : 142 (118 offense, 170 defense, 152 tempo)
Opponent NET: Q3

Alabama KenPom: 5 (2 offense, 23 defense, 8 tempo)
Alabama Evan Miya: 2 (2 offense, 11 defense, 5 tempo)
Alabama Bart Torvik: 142 (118 offense, 170 defense, 152 tempo)
NET Ranking: N/A

At ASU, Hodgson has been nothing short of a revelation. In one season he took a team that was eight games below .500 the year before, led them to a 4th place Sun Belt finish, an improbable SBC Tourney title, and was one point away from playing for the CBI championship in the postseason.

Last year’s 20-17 record at ASU may seem deceptively mediocre, but considering where ASU was, that is a lot more impressive than it looks — it was their first winning season in almost a decade. Since the Red Wolves aim to be a tempo rim-and-perimeter Alabama clone, one led from the guards, this will be a very good mirror early in the season for the Tide to peer into. And, while ASU wants to play tempo, they did not stand out for the pace against Akron. Small data set and whatnot, but ASU is firmly middle of the pack.

The defense is also average, after giving up 40% from the floor, 10 threes, and 85 points against Akron. The Zips are defending MAC champs, so, they’re solid. But the deep bench of Akron guards feasted on the Red Wolves, notching 62 of those points. Perimeter defense was also an especial concern against motion: Akron had 19 assists on its 28 total buckets.

Offensively, the Red Wolves are led by Taryn Todd. The very active defender at the wing was ASU’s best scorer last season, can put the ball on the floor off the dribble, and is a solid FT shooter and a respectable 42% from the floor. PG Derrian Ford is the best perimeter shooter for the Wolves (career 38% shooter from the arc,) and also one of ASU’s most solid FT shooters. He’s a fairly lazy defender though, and almost never goes after rebounds.

But the core of this team is likely to come from a trio of transfers, including some SEC talent who immediately paid dividends. PF Joseph Pinion looks poised to have a big season. He was a SG at Arkansas, but moving to the Sun Belt has allowed the 6’8” Pinion to move to F/PF. He’s careful with the ball too. On top of leading the Wolves in scoring against Akron, he had zero turnovers in his 48 total touches, and was absolutely lethal when he stepped outside (4 of 5 from three). This will be a good matchup for Grant and Jarin. He’s very much a player in their swing-forward mold.

In the post is Rashaud Marshall, a transfer from Ole Miss, and already the team’s most impactful rebounder and rim defender. Finally of note, there’s the player who (alongside Pinion) I think is going to perhaps be the Red Wolves best by season’s end, ULL transfer wing Kobe Julien. Kobe was a star for the Ragin’ Cajuns last season, averaging almost 18/5 a game, and he is an excellent FT shooter as well. Against Akron, he netted 14, had six ORB, a pair of assists and blocked four shots.

This stands to be a bit tougher of a game than the jerseys would suggest. This is going to show up on the early schedule as a NET Tier 3 contest, but will likely prove to be a T2 win at the end of the year.

Last season ASU was 3rd in 3P shooting defense and 46th nationally in 3P rate, and they’ve only gotten more talented in the offseason, with the addition of some former SEC talent via the portal. They’re not as good from the perimeter this year (at least after one game). But, they will still launch them. The Red Wolves jacked up 34 on Monday night (netting just 9, for 29%).

So, it’s going to be that kind of game. And, when you have a team that launches as many as the Red Wolves do, with four scorers that can also put the ball on the floor and attack the rack, that’s always a bit dangerous — the three-point shot is the great equalizer, and a hot night can give even a solid underdog a puncher’s chance.

Still, ASU’s bench is thin, and they are a fairly small team that does not defend very well. As with Asheville, Bama’s size should cause trouble for the Red Wolves. So too will ‘Bama’s ball movement and three-point shooting. Given ASU’s weaknesses defensively at the guard spots, I’d expect a far bigger night for the Tide from beyond the arc.

ASU is nevertheless a quality opponent. And if anyone knows Nate Oats, it’s Coach Hodgson. But the Tide’s length and ball movement here is overwhelming, as is the bench. ASU is going to struggle to keep their best five on the floor.

You can’t ask the Tide’s talented bench to nerf themselves by running clock, or expect Alabama to give it more than 100% on both ends of the floor for 40 minutes. To that end, I think ‘Bama gets a fairly cozy win in the triple digits, and handily covers this one.

This is your game thread for the evening. The game tips at 7:00 central, and can be seen on ESPN (or streamed on ESPN+).

Roll Tide, and chime in below.