‘Bama Basketball Breakdown: Ducks bring efficient offense and tenacious defense to Players Era final

If you want a high-scoring shootout, this could be your game.

Why merely “could?” Because, for all the deserved reputation of these teams’ offensive firepower, it is probably going to be defensive effort that wins it. The Ducks and the Tide have shown some tenacity at times this season, and nowhere was that more apparent than in ‘Bama’s win over No. 4 Houston and the Ducks’ smothering effort against the physical San Diego State Aztecs.

Let’s take a look at this one.

Tale of the Tape: Oregon (7-0) vs No. 9 Alabama (6-1)

Spread (Totals): Alabama -6 (O/U 165.5)

Opponent KenPom: 23 (21 offense, 35 defense, 172 tempo)
Opponent Evan Miya: 22 (16 offense, 38 defense, 188 tempo)
Opponent Bart Torvik: 33 (33 offense, 51 defense, 181 tempo)
Opponent NET: Q1
Opponent Best Win: Texas A&M (No. 27)
Opponent Worst Loss: N/A

Alabama KenPom: 9 (3 offense, 46 defense, 4 tempo)
Alabama Evan Miya: 7 (3 offense, 30 defense, 2 tempo)
Alabama Bart Torvik: 8 (3 offense, 30 defense, 5 tempo)
NET Ranking: N/A
Best Win: No. 4 Houston
Worst Loss: No. 15 Purdue, as though that’s “bad”

The Tide’s defense-optional 95-90 shootout against Rutgers was perhaps predictable. Alabama came into that with some truly dead legs, emotionally drained, and on the tail-end of a sixth straight game against a Tourney team. Add in some exceptional individual effort by the Scarlet Knights dynamic freshman guards, and ‘Bama’s usual struggles against talented backcourts, and voila.

Their reward for all of that? The surprisingly undefeated Oregon Ducks, who advanced to the one-million dollar finale after two physical ten-point wins over the A&M Aggies and San Diego State Aztecs. The Ducks offense grabs the headlines, but their better-than-expected defense has led the way.

What do we know about Oregon? On paper, they are just about the most stereotypical looking basketball program you’ll see. Kind of tall, but not towering (about 6’6” on average). Shoot an average amount of threes, but the offense doesn’t rely on them (only 34% of their offense comes from the perimeter. Get to the line an above average amount, but their offense doesn’t rely on freebies (though it is aided by 21 attempts per game). They rebound decently on both offense and defense, but not overwhelmingly so. They defend pretty good from the floor, but aren’t great when they have to step-out and guard the perimeter.

So, what do they do well?

First, it’s a veteran team with a lot of returning chemistry. In the era of one-and-done rent-a-rosters, that usually helps you out. Second, they are solid all around, the ultimate jack-of-all-trades team — and they do it without fouling much. People who think the intermediate jumper is dead, or that motion sets freeing up looks from 12-feet is a lot art, have never seen the Ducks play. And they not only take them, but they make the most of them, hitting 50% from the floor. Is that great? No. Alabama’s 62% (12th nationally) is great.

But the Ducks are just so fundamentally sound and above average in almost everything. They remind you a lot of the Notre Dame team the Tide faced a few years ago in their first-round Tourney exit. In fact, if you wanted to create a generic 10- or 11-seed Major Conference NCAA Tournament team, you could do worse than use the Ducks as your Platonic exemplar. I’d wager their final record looks like that too. Something like 22-10ish.

The Ducks are not a great perimeter shooting team. They are an inside-out post-led squad that begins with 7’0” Nate Bittle. He is by far the best shooting Big that the Tide has faced all season. He’s 73% inside the lane, shoots another 50% from beyond that, and is not afraid to launch from deep. Though he’s a gross 3-18 from that distance, it keeps defenders honest. He leads the teams in scoring (14 PG) blocks (2+), rebounds (9.5), and is the key component the Tide must defend tonight. The offense goes through him. To make matters worse, he’s the Ducks second-best free throw shooter — 86%. In fact, Oregon has a trio of guys flirting with 90%, so it’s not a group you want to send to the line a bunch. The rest of the post guys are merely warm bodies, and they add about 9 PPG / 8 RPG.

On the outside, the Ducks start with PG Jackson Shelstad. He’s not a good shooter (just over 20%, and not much better on the floor at 34%), but he sees the court well, and is great in the two-man game with Bittle. He leads the way with 4 APG, and is also an active defender and a very capable rebounder. TJ Bamba is their second-leading scorer, and he’s more of a combo than a true SG; he also has a great knack for finding open looks and is second in assists as well.

Outside of Bittle, the second-best player is probably wing Brandon Angel — he’s a 44% shooter from three, is third on the team in scoring, second in rebounding and blocks, and is a damn good FT shooter (nearly 90%). Jadrian Tracy is the third guard in the starting spot, and also the most mercurial one: some nights he may go for ten, the next night he’s shut out.

It’s not a deep bench at all, but the one guy to watch is Sixth Man Keeshawn Barthelemy. He may eventually win a starting spot, because good things happen when he’s on the floor. He’s the best defending guard, adds almost 10 a night to go with a pair of assists and rebounds, and outside of Texas A&M has made it to double-digits in every game he’s played. Keeshawn is also the second-best perimeter shooter (43%), and he’s doing all of this on some limited minutes (under 22 a night). Outside of stopping Bittle, defending Bamba and Angel, I’d wager that preventing Barthelemy from getting hot off the bench, is going to be a major defensive assignment.

Bottom Line

The Ducks want to feed the post, and coupled with an average tempo scheme that does not go pell-mell, it could finally be the night that Cliff’s skill set is used to its full extent. Little Mo also has potential to get in here, as well as see some more minutes logged efor Sherrell. Perhaps as importantly for the Tide, OU is an active defensive team, but there are few overwhelming defenders, and the Ducks will surrender good looks at the basket outside of the post. Not a Houston-esque sort of situation, but a familiar story is unfolding here for ‘Bama: force pace of play and then make your shots.

Alabama is also going to have to be sound defensively and rely on positioning rather than aggressively hacking. The Ducks aren’t great free throw team, but there are some great individual shooters who work their way to line. Rutgers stayed in that game on Thursday because of all the free throws. We’ve seen that happen in other games too (Illinois, for instance).

Likewise, the Tide needs to focus on finding its open man and then netting those open shots. The Ducks don’t foul much, despite how aggressive they are in man defense. Alabama cannot simply hope to get to the line as they usually do, and particularly not with a do-it-all rim protector like Bittle. If the Tide can get the Ducks in foul trouble though, Oregon is in trouble. This is a very thin bench.

How To Watch

It’s yet another late one: 8:00 central again on TBS. By then, we should also know ‘Bama’s fortunes following the Arn Bow, and a lot more of the national picture will be available for those splitting their rooting interests today.

Prediction

Overall, this is a very favorable matchup for Alabama. The Tide have the size and physicality down low this year to help mitigate the danger that Bittle poses. It’s a better shooting team, it has a deeper bench, and it rebounds better offensively than the Ducks do defensively. And it’s simply more talented.

Vegas sees this as a higher-scoring game because of just-decent efficiency defenses and a pair of well-above average offensive teams. But outside of a soup can against Directional UC, the Ducks don’t live up to that high-score billing. They play pretty slow, and flirt with upper-70s, maybe 80, on most nights. When ‘Bama wants to play defense, they can. And for the first time all season, the heart of the opponent is not a bevy of terrifying guards that can destroy you with a string of perimeter daggers. Cliff may foul out, for sure. But Alabama has post presence and enough depth to both play a half-court game and to force its kind of game.

That ought to be enough for a million dollars…and let’s hope the officials decide to swallow some whistles for a change.

84-76 is our call.

Hope for the best.
Roll Tide.