No time to celebrate last night’s huge 85-80 win over the No. 4 Houston Cougars. The Tide have to find their legs, and their shooting touch, all over again as they face Big Cliff’s old team, preseason Top 25 Rutgers. Because you only thought you were done with Big 10 basketball…
This is going to be a bit truncated: tight turnaround and whatnot.
Tale of the Tape: Rutgers (4-1) vs No. 6 Alabama (5-1)
Spread (Totals): Alabama -10.5 (O/U 161.5)
Opponent KenPom: 78 (83 offense, 85 defense, 122 tempo)
Opponent Evan Miya: 78 (95 offense, 73 defense, 115 tempo)
Opponent Bart Torvik: 45 (45 offense, 56 defense, 149 tempo)
Opponent NET: Q2
Opponent Best Win: Notre Dame (No. 72)
Opponent Worst Loss: No. 167 Kennesaw State (Antoine Pettway!)
Alabama KenPom: 6 (3 offense, 37 defense, 14 tempo)
Alabama Evan Miya: 8 (2 offense, 30 defense, 6 tempo)
Alabama Bart Torvik: 7 (3 offense, 26 defense, 12 tempo)
NET Ranking: N/A
Best Win: No. 4 Houston
Worst Loss: No. 15 Purdue, as though that’s “bad”
No time to pat themselves on the back, the Crimson Tide face yet another team that was ranked in the preseason Top 25, this time with some personal stakes involved, as ‘Bama squares off against Big Cliff’s old squad, the Rutgers Scarlet Knights.
The Rutgers of last season looks almost nothing like this year’s version.
While the 2024 unit was strong in the post, and played a more deliberative brand of basketball, the 2025 Scarlet Knights begin in the backcourt with the No. 2 and No. 3 projected lottery picks in the next NBA draft, Ace Bailey and Dylan Harper. The pair of freshmen each play well over 30 minutes a game, and are responsible for almost half of the Scarlet Knights’ 78 points per game. They are a bit more quicker-paced team (well above average), but no one is going to confuse them for an uptempo squad.
Dylan Harper in particular has been fantastic, as both the leading scorer (22 PPG), and dishing out 5.5 assists per contest. At this rate, he and Philon will be duking it out for the first point guard off the board. The guards (again) are the engine that drives this train: eight of them see 10+ minutes on the floor, and they account for almost 70% of all Rutgers scoring. Jeremiah Williams, PJ Hayes and Jordan Derkack chip in an extra 11 rebounds, 3 assists, and 21 points a night.
What particularly impresses you, though, is how active the entire team is in getting after loose balls. Three guards average over 5 boards a night, and six of them have 3+. In fact, their leading rebounder is SG Jordan Derkack. For all that, however, it is a very traditional looking offense, with a true center, true PF, etc. In fact, Rutgers has three centers they rotate heavily, with Zach Martini being the best offensive option (he can also step outside and pop it from three), and Lathan Somerville is the mauler — he leads the teams in blocks, and is second in rebounds.
Still, the heart of this squad is the kids, and it shows. Rutgers turns it over a lot, about 18% of their possessions. And, as a team, they are fairly soft defenders that don’t put much pressure on the ball. They are among the worst in the Big 10 in forcing TOs, and as a result, they have given up a lot of good looks — a lot of points — from the perimeter.
It’s also not a very good shooting team (that applies to the free throw line, where just three guys are above 75%), despite being a fairly balanced scoring offense. Rutgers has to get there with volume, and they chuck it up a ton to get to those 80 points per contest. Rutgers shoots just 39.4% from the field, and are a woeful 32% from the three-point line. Any wrinkles that Alabama’s backcourt has had in guarding the counterparts should be ironed out here. The Knights don’t shoot well, so there’s no reason to let them do so by playing soft.
The key, however, will be stopping the point, and not letting Ace Bailey get going at the two-spot — easily the best shooter, he’s knocking down 53% from the floor and 44% from deep. But as goes Harper, so go the Scarlet Knights, and almost any of these guys can get hot (in particular watch out for the dangerous PJ Hayes coming off the bench as a screen-and-three shooter.)
Bottom Line:
Rutgers was always going to face some growing pains as a team rebuilding its identity with a freshman backcourt, but so far Dylan and Ace have looked the part — even in their two-point loss to Antoine Pettway’s Kennesaw State Owls. That pair have some great two-man chemistry, and thrive off the pick and roll in particular to get penetration. Good communication will be key, as the Tide defenders will have to make smart switches.
For the first time in a long time, the Tide’s shooters ought to have some space on the floor though. Rutgers is a solid team, but it is the worst defensive one that Alabama will have faced since UNC-Asheville. In particular, the Knights struggle defending the perimeter (just 244th in effective 3PT defense), with teams shooting an adjusted 40.6% from deep. That has to be music to the Tide’s ears after three straight weeks of pressure defenses and intense swarming of the arc.
Last night it seemed both teams sort of found their way though.
For the Scarlet Knights, that identity came in the form of hitching their wagon to the Lottery Duo, and riding them to an overtime win vs. the Fighting Irish. For the Tide, it was leaning into its role-player depth and blue collar identity, while being smart about letting the offense come to them — they were pressured, but they did not press. The Tide’s shooting slump isn’t fully resolved, and it would be nice to see Cliff finally eat, but I suspect this is the game where we see a few more pieces fall into place. Look for Labaron to rebound especially, after a tough night against the hardest playing team in America.
Make that second-hardest playing team in America: Alabama claimed that crown last night.
How to Watch:
It’s a late one tonight, folks: Game tips at 9:00 Central on TBS. Both Alabama and Rutgers are coming off of grueling overtime contests, so you can bet the extra rest is welcome.
Prediction:
We’ll say that a motivated Cliff and Philon, a backcourt shooting its way out of an early slump, and too much depth and talent all vault the Tide to a win and cover. Above all, this will be a game about retaining focus, intensity, and managing expectations. All of these tough November and December contests are being set up for one goal: March success. So keeping the ego and puffed chests and entitlement at bay will be the biggest struggle tonight. It is a test that the football team failed and one that basketball cannot flunk if wants to cut down all the nets.
Alabama 91 — Rutgers 75
Hope for the best.
Roll Tide.
