A common refrain in Tuscaloosa these days about the Alabama men’s basketball team is “the sky is the limit.”
The roster is filled with talent. The coaching staff is elite. There‘s experience and potential across the board. Alabama might have the best player in the country in Mark Sears. As a result, the Crimson Tide earned the No. 2 preseason ranking, the highest ever in program history.
But what exactly this season means the sky? How high can this team fly?
And on the opposite end of the spectrum, what might go wrong? How will Alabama‘s season turn out if it doesn’t meet these sky-high expectations?
The Crimson Tide will start its sixth season under coach Nate Oats with a matchup against UNC Asheville on Monday (8 p.m. CT, ESPNU) at Coleman Coliseum. Before games get underway, here’s a look at the best case scenario and the worst case scenario for the Crimson Tide in 2024-25.
Best case scenario for Alabama basketball in 2024-25
Really, it’s simple: Alabama wins a national championship.
If there‘s ever a season in which that’s not a crazy scenario, it‘s this one. If Alabama plays to its capability, Oats and company coach to their capability and the Crimson Tide gets the necessary bounces, a national championship is 100% realistic. That might be overly optimistic many years, but not this one.
It‘s of course worth noting how difficult it is to win the NCAA Tournament. All it takes is one off night and your season is over. Favorable matchups also can make a difference. College basketball‘s best team won March Madness this past year in UConn, but that’s not always the case. The NCAA Tournament can have all sorts of surprises.
Something that wouldn’t be a surprise? The Crimson Tide cutting down the nets in San Antonio.
That’s far from guaranteed to happen, but it fits as the best-case scenario.
Worst case scenario for Alabama basketball
The Crimson Tide loses in the first weekend of the NCAA Tournament.
It would be absolutely shocking and a complete failure of a season if Alabama didn‘t reach March Madness at all with this roster. Oats has done it every season but his first (when it didn‘t even happen because of COVID-19), and he‘s never had a roster this talented. There’s no reason to believe that with these players and these coaches will miss the NCAA Tournament.
So, somewhat safely assuming that happens at bare minimum, the worst case scenario would be not making it past the first weekend. That’s not likely, but anything can happen in March Madness. Alabama has a bad game? A bad matchup could result in a loss before the second weekend.
This team has national-championship aspirations and capability. But there‘s a reason the season is played. Sometimes expectations can be nothing more than preseason fodder. It’s up to Alabama to meet those expectations.
Otherwise, the Crimson Tide could end up going home earlier than it wants or expects.
Nick Kelly is an Alabama beat writer for AL.com and the Alabama Media Group. Follow him on X and Instagram.
