Everything that happens in sports has some additional context when viewed from a sports betting perspective. From season-changing injuries to record-setting moments and so much more, the sports news cycle will constantly and significantly affect the sports betting industry.
Our betting buzz file, with contributions from David Purdum, Doug Greenberg and others, aims to provide fans with a look at the sports betting stories that are driving the conversation.
Key links: Sports betting home | NFL odds page | College football odds page | ESPN BET
Oct. 26: Freeman ties Ohtani in World Series MVP odds after historic Game 1
Doug Greenberg: Freddie Freeman joined Los Angeles Dodgers lore on Friday night with the first walk-off grand slam in World Series history, evoking shades of Kirk Gibson in 1988. His homer (along with a first-inning triple) vaulted him into the conversation for World Series MVP and he is now tied with odds-leader Shohei Ohtani to win the award at +325, per ESPN BET odds.
Perhaps owing to his lingering ankle injury, Freeman entered MLB’s championship series with +3500 odds to take home the honor and was not a particularly popular play among the betting public, attracting just 1.5% of the tickets and 0.9% of the handle as of Friday morning at BetMGM; those figures moved to 2.4% and 2.1%, respectively, after Game 1.
On the flip side, Ohtani attracted a remarkable amount of the wagers and money to win World Series MVP despite the shortest odds (+240 entering Game 1) in over two decades. At ESPN BET, the Japanese superstar took more handle than Aaron Judge, Juan Soto, Giancarlo Stanton, Mookie Betts and Freeman combined.
Last year, Corey Seager (+475) became the first favorite to win the award in nine seasons.
Freeman and the Dodgers will look to build on their momentum in Saturday night’s Game 2. Los Angeles is a -145 moneyline favorite to New York’s +120, according to ESPN BET odds.
Oct. 24: Kennesaw State pulls off second-largest upset of CFB season
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Winless Kennesaw State stuns unbeaten Liberty
Kennesaw State gets their first-ever win against an FBS opponent by beating previously undefeated Liberty 27-24.
Greenberg: The beauty of college football is one never knows where or when a massive upset might be lurking.
On Wednesday night, the Kennesaw State Owls notched their first win of the season with a 27-24 victory over the Liberty Flames after coming into the contest as 27.5-point underdogs, per ESPN BET odds. It’s the second-biggest outright upset of the season, just behind Northern Illinois (+28.5) over Notre Dame and ahead of Vanderbilt (+22.5) over Alabama.
That second outright win by an underdog of 27 points or greater through October is tied for the most in such FBS matchups since the 1978 FBS/FCS split, according to ESPN Research. The Owls were +1300 underdogs on the money line coming into the contest and were as long as +2500 on the live line.
The start of the NBA season meant that this contest might not have lived up to the handle of previous midweek college football games, with BetMGM saying that all of Wednesday’s NBA games took more bets than Liberty-Kennesaw State. Nevertheless, the members of the public who did bet on it largely lost, as BetMGM, DraftKings and ESPN BET all reported a majority of bets and handle on the Flames’ spread, topping out at 74% of the tickets and 83% of the money.
There is still time this year for more huge outright upsets: Since 2020, there have been at least four outright upsets of 22.5 points or more every season, with a high of six in 2021, per ESPN Research.
Oct. 23: Browns gaining steam from sharp bettors amid QB change
Greenberg: Under the subpar play of QB Deshaun Watson — who posted the fourth-worst total QBR over the last three seasons (34.3), according to ESPN Research — the Cleveland Browns have stumbled to a 1-6 straight up record and are 2-5 against the spread to start the year. That said, sharp bettors across the sports betting market believe Week 8 is where things may start to turn around for the Browns, especially with a new quarterback under center.
Cleveland opened as high as 10.5-point underdogs against the division rival Baltimore Ravens, who are now in first place in the AFC North after winning five in a row. But early sharp action pushed this line quickly down to Browns +9.5 and some shops have even come down to +8.5, including DraftKings.
“We have seen sharp money come in on Cleveland early in the week,” the sportsbook’s director Johnny Avello told ESPN over email. “This is a big number for a divisional game. Additionally, there is a belief that Jameis Winston might be able to jolt some life into this offense, after Deshaun Watson struggled mightily over the first seven games.”
BetMGM also attributes “sharp action” to the precipitous shortening of this spread.
At ESPN BET, the Browns are down to +9 after the book received 75% of handle against just 32% of tickets on Cleveland. The book also notes a two-point move for the total up to 44.5, another possible indication of Winston’s potential contributions to the Browns’ offense.
Oct. 22: Inter Miami top MLS Cup odds entering playoffs
Doug Greenberg: On the eve of the 2024 MLS season, Inter Miami CF, led by former Barcelona superstars Lionel Messi, Luis Suárez, Jordi Alba and Sergio Busquets, were the clear-cut favorites to win the club’s first MLS Cup and had plenty of support from the betting public to do so. On the eve of the league’s playoffs, not much has changed.
Inter Miami enter the MLS Cup playoffs as +150 favorites to win it all after beginning the season at +300, per ESPN BET odds. Miami has been the bona fide public favorite all season, attracting 44% of the wagers and 39% of handle at the sportsbook.
However, Inter Miami’s favorite status has mostly mitigated the risk for sportsbooks, who are more wary of the longer-odds teams with bettor support.
“Despite having a high ticket count, Messi and Inter Miami’s odds being short all season have actually made them a good outcome for us if they win the cup,” BetMGM trading manager Seamus Magee said over email. “The Columbus Crew going back-to-back would be the worst-case scenario for us.”
Columbus, runners-up to Miami in the Eastern Conference, sit at +700 on BetMGM and have attracted 18.1% of the tickets and 16.3% of the money there, second and third, respectively, in the split rankings. Los Angeles FC (+600) are also a big liability for the book, attracting 21.4% of the handle, actually ahead of Inter Miami.
The playoffs kick off with wild-card matches Tuesday and Wednesday; CF Montréal (-125) and Portland Timbers (-175) are the favorites to advance in their respective matches.
