With basketball season rapidly approaching, we’re going team-by-team in the Big Ten to assess where everyone stands and how things could shake out this year.
Purdue is coming off a second consecutive Big Ten championship, the first team since Ohio State in 2006-07 to win back-to-back outright titles. And this time, the Boilermakers finally got their breakthrough March Madness run to back up all the regular-season success. Purdue reached its first Final Four since 1980 and advanced to the national championship game, before falling to a superior UConn team. Despite some roster turnover, Matt Painter’s team looks poised for another strong year.
WHO’S GONE:
- Zach Edey (25.2 PPG) (went to NBA)
- Lance Jones (11.7 PPG) (exhausted his eligibility)
- Mason Gillis (6.5 PPG) (transfer — Duke)
- Ethan Morton (0.6 PPG) (transfer — Colorado State)
- Chase Martin
WHO’S BACK:
- Braden Smith, G (12.0 PPG)
- Fletcher Loyer, G (10.3 PPG)
- Trey Kaufman-Renn, F (6.4 PPG)
- Myles Colvin, G (3.3 PPG)
- Camden Heide, F (3.3 PPG)
- Will Berg, C (2.6 PPG)
- Caleb Furst, F (2.2 PPG)
- Brian Waddell, F (1.1 PPG)
WHO’S NEW:
Freshmen (Rankings from 247Sports Composite)
- Gicarri Harris, G (four-star, No. 69)
- Raleigh Burgess, F (four-star, No. 130)
- Daniel Jacobsen, C (three-star, No. 147)
- CJ Cox, G (three-star, No. 271)
- Jack Benter, G (three-star, No. 306)
RETURNING MINUTES: 54.2 percent (per barttorvik.com)
Why it will work
It’s fully Braden Smith’s show in West Lafayette, now. Smith is the Big Ten Preseason Player of the Year, and for good reason. He finished second in the nation last season with 7.5 assists per game, and shot over 43 percent from 3-point range while scoring 12 points per game. Zach Edey’s departure could cause his assist numbers to drop a bit, but Smith should be able to handle a larger scoring load this year. It’s pretty safe to assume that both Smith and Fletcher Loyer will turn in solid seasons, if not better. There’s less certainty outside of that duo, but Painter’s successful track record of player development suggests other good pieces will emerge. Trey Kaufman-Renn should step into a larger role this year, and he’s a potential breakout candidate.
Why it won’t
Edey is one of those players whom a team can’t replace with any one individual. Nobody can step in and give Purdue what Edey did. It’ll be a group effort for the Boilermakers in making up that void. They need Kaufman-Renn and Caleb Furst to take steps forward in the frontcourt this year. Additionally, the Lance Jones and Mason Gillis departures take away a reliable shooter and a top reserve threat. Guys like Myles Colvin will have to step up from the bench, and Purdue could really use some contributions from at least one of its freshmen. With no transfer portal additions, Painter has a lot riding on those sorts of developments panning out. If some of those players in elevated roles disappoint, the Boilers could take a step back this season.
Our take
Purdue has finished lower than tied for third in the Big Ten only twice in the last decade. The Boilermakers may have lost the best player in the Big Ten from the last two years, but they still enter this year with the best player in the conference. This team will look different from recent iterations, but Painter’s squad should still rank among the best in the conference. He’s built a consistently successful program in West Lafayette, and has become one of the best coaches in the country. There are other teams coming for the Boilermakers’ Big Ten throne this year, and they might end up ceding the crown. But it’s hard to bet against Painter’s track record.
BIG TEN OUTLOOK: Contender
PRIOR ROSTER ANALYSES:
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