With the NBA season approaching the one-month mark, our writers weigh in on the biggest surprises and disappointments so far, plus rank the top title contenders in the early going.
1. Most pleasant surprise of the season so far?
Ben Rohrbach: The Cleveland Cavaliers. I figured last season, when they lost to the Boston Celtics in a five-game, second-round playoff series, there were too many redundancies on the roster. Donovan Mitchell and Darius Garland could not share a backcourt; nor could Evan Mobley and Jarrett Allen share a frontcourt. Turns out, all they needed was Kenny Atkinson, a head coach who has reconfigured the offense in ways that maximize everyone — and form a true contender.
Dan Titus: The Golden State Warriors. The Cavs and Lakers deserve votes, but the Warriors’ hot start is at the top of my list because they weren’t expected to be among the best teams in the West, let alone the entire league. Their uniquely deep rotation is thriving off a ton of ball movement, 3s and a revived commitment to defense. As a top-five unit on both ends, the Dubs are a legit title contender — even in the twilight of Steph Curry’s and Draymond Green’s careers.
Dan Devine: How about the Nets — a team pretty much universally projected to be intentionally abysmal this season — instead being downright competitive? Despite facing one of the toughest opening slates in the NBA, Brooklyn sits at 6-9, with two of those losses coming in overtime to the champion Celtics on the road and on a night Nikola Jokić went nuclear, and a third on a dagger by Jalen Brunson. The Nets are tied for seventh in offensive efficiency, rubbing shoulders with All-Star-laden teams, thanks to the dribble penetration of Dennis Schröder and Cam Thomas, the scorching shooting of Cam Johnson and a bombs-away approach from beyond the arc implemented by new head coach Jordi Fernandez.
It probably won’t last, especially if the rumblings that every Net is available in trade talks result in major, Capture-the-Flagg-inspired deconstructive surgery before the February trade deadline. For now, though, Brooklyn’s a pretty decent watch, and I’m not sure how many of us called that a month ago.
Vincent Goodwill: It’s certainly Cleveland. Continuity as opposed to wholesale change working in today’s NBA? Who knew? The loss to the Celtics notwithstanding, the Cavaliers acquitted themselves well on Tuesday. Everything is sped up, Evan Mobley and Darius Garland growing without taking away from the others, and Donovan Mitchell keeping his powder dry till the fourth quarter? I like it.
2. Biggest disappointment of the season so far?
Titus: The Philadelphia 76ers. The Sixers can chalk up their terrible start to a lack of organizational accountability, leadership and being a flawed team with zero chemistry. The Joel Embiid-Paul George-Tyrese Maxey trio will presumably play together for the first time later this week, but as the worst-shooting team in the league, it will be tough to dig out of a 2-11 hole — even in a weak Eastern Conference. What a mess. At least Jared McCain looks great.
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Devine: Let’s stipulate that the correct answers are Philly and Milwaukee, as Yahoo Sports’ Vincent Goodwill ably laid out Tuesday. As our staff’s most incorrect thinker, though: Let’s go with a Pacers team that lit up scoreboards at historic levels last season ranking just 16th in points scored per possession. A lot of the pain stems from injuries. It’s tough to run when you’re down half a rotation: Indiana’s gone from first in average time to shot last season to 14th this season, from second to 14th in pace, and from seventh to 20th in how often it plays in transition, sapping what was a huge strength for Rick Carlisle’s club last season.
The blows to the supporting cast, along with consistently facing kitchen-sink defensive coverage, have combined for a brutal start for Tyrese Haliburton, who’s dealing with some injury issues of his own. Haliburton is averaging four fewer points and about two and a half fewer assists per game, shooting 38% from the field and 29% from 3-point range, and struggling mightily on the road. Without him playing at the superstar level he reached last season, Indiana will stay stuck in neutral.
Goodwill: You can say the Philadelphia 76ers, for the team drama and lack of availability from Joel Embiid and Paul George. Shocker. The record being Wizards-esque seems like a fireable offense, but missing your top three players grants some grace. The Milwaukee Bucks, some of us expected them to have some level of continuity after last year’s rocky ride. Giannis Antetokounmpo and Damian Lillard have been healthy aside from Lillard’s concussion, and while Khris Middleton has yet to make his debut, they still have enough to be better than 5-9. Winning three of four grants some bail, but overall, title contenders can’t look this way.
Rohrbach: The Philadelphia 76ers. It may be too obvious, but they are 2-11. They have to win two-thirds of their remaining games to equal their record from last season, when they needed a victory in the play-in tournament to secure a playoff berth. They handed out a combined $609 million to Joel Embiid, Tyrese Maxey and Paul George over the summer — not to mention the millions they spent to surround them with a capable supporting cast — and they are dreadful.
3. Most intriguing development of the season so far?
Goodwill: The Houston Rockets being competent. We could kind of see this coming with Ime Udoka working his magic and getting this team to be passable last year. Now, they’re top four in the West, albeit early, with a deep team, a point differential (+7.9) that would have them as a top-three team in the conference most years, and plenty of assets to put themselves in position to trade for the next disgruntled star, because there always is one. Seven guys score in double figures, and there’s a good mix of youth and vets to make them more than plucky in the meantime.
Rohrbach: Giannis Antetokounmpo. Does he become available? It felt like there was a 0% chance of that before the season. A month into it? There is a chance, even if it is a slim one. Even the slightest possibility that a perennial MVP candidate could be a trade possibility is a big deal — the kind of development that has teams plotting paths to land him. They are not contenders as currently constituted, and no amount of tinkering around the edges can change that. Speaking of which, how happy will Damian Lillard be in Milwaukee if more hope is lost?
Titus: Dyson Daniels. The Great Barrier Thief has become one of the league’s most versatile and disruptive defenders, averaging 3.4 steals and 1.1 blocks per game. He is well on his way to earning his first All-Defensive team nod. Daniels’ growth isn’t limited to the defensive end though, as he’s putting up career-highs in usage rate, points, rebounds, assists and 3s made per game in his third NBA season. If his teammate weren’t Jalen Johnson, he’d be even higher on the MIP list.
Devine: This might be nothing, but: way more defenses seem to be cranking up their full-court pressure early this season.
Miami Heat defense to start the 4th
Full court press into a zone. No one getting a single deep drive. Ball broke the 3pt line once until Donte
Forcing the ball to go around with nothing happening. Force a shot clock TOV pic.twitter.com/TIkJN9gUB4
— John Jablonka (@JohnJablonka_) November 12, 2024
Two seasons ago, no team broke out a press on more than five defensive possessions per game, according to Synergy Sports Technology. Last season, two did: the Trail Blazers and Pacers. So far this season, seven have, led by Brooklyn and Indiana at more than 12 possessions per game, followed by Portland, Toronto, Memphis, Miami and New Orleans. Three more — Washington, Oklahoma City and Golden State — have picked up full-court at least four times a night, a rate that would’ve ranked at or near the top of the NBA for most of the past decade and a half.
Maybe the pressure produces a steal in the backcourt. Maybe it delays the meaningful action of an offensive possession by a few ticks — valuable in and of itself, considering the degree to which offensive efficiency drops off later in the shot clock. Maybe it’s like body blows in boxing — make your deposits early in hopes of reaping the dividends of an opponent’s legs getting weak late. Whatever the case: That’s about a third of the league, running the gamut from elite defenses to bottom-feeders, all making a defined and concerted effort to harass ball-handlers in the backcourt. They’re probably doing it for a reason, and it’s probably worth keeping an eye on.
4. Rank the top 5 NBA title contenders right now.
Devine: Celtics, Thunder, Warriors, Cavaliers and … hell, let’s go with the Nuggets. Just outside the top 10 on both ends despite Aaron Gordon missing the past couple of weeks and Nikola Jokić missing the last three games, 8-3 since dropping two ugly ones early, some signs of life from Jamal Murray and Michael Porter Jr. — staying afloat. That’s good enough to keep me on board for now.
Titus: 1. Celtics; 2. Thunder; 3. Cavaliers; 4. Warriors; 5. Lakers.
Goodwill: 1. Celtics; 2. Thunder; 3. Warriors; 4. Cavaliers; 5. Nuggets.
Rohrbach: 1. Celtics (reigning champions); 2. Thunder (West’s best); 3. Cavaliers (15-1); 4. Warriors (top-five offense and defense); 5. Nuggets (Nikola Jokić).
