Here is IBD’s stock market election news live coverage, as former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris close out a tight race. Dow Jones futures, bitcoin, Treasury yields and more will take their cue from Tuesday’s results. So will individual stocks such as Tesla (TSLA) and Trump Media & Technology (DJT).
The stock market rallied Tuesday into election results, with strong gains on the indexes.
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Stocks Rally Into Election Results; Astera Labs, Intuitive Surgical, Howmet Aerospace In Focus
Follow along for timely updates for stock market election reaction Tuesday night.
11:02 p.m. ET
Trump Sweep Of Swing States?
Officially, none of the swing states have been called by AP, but North Carolina and Georgia appear firmly in Trump’s column. He also may have the edge in Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Michigan. He only needs one of those three.
Arizona is still counting and Nevada hasn’t started. Trump was seen as even odds or better in those two states. He doesn’t need to win either though.
10:41 p.m. ET
Stock Futures Strongly Higher
Dow Jones futures rose 1.3% vs. fair value. S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 futures are up 1.2%. Russell 2000 futures are up 2.8%. Those aren’t at overnight highs but close.
Bitcoin is up at $74,300 after briefly hitting $75,000 a few minutes ago
10:35 p.m. ET
Tesla Stock Soars, Now What For Elon Musk And Tesla?
Tesla surged nearly 8% on Robinhood overnight. Elon Musk has been a huge supporter of Donald Trump, making huge contributions in recent months.
Trump has said he’ll put Musk in charge of improving government efficiency. Will it be an official post or something advisory? Tesla shareholders may not be thrilled at Musk taking on another responsibility.
Musk has said he could find $2 trillion in annual spending cuts. Will Trump embrace such an agenda?
Trump has said he would like to repeal EV tax credits, which have been a boon to Tesla. But it’s unclear if Trump could get Congress to repeal the IRA credits, even if Republicans narrowly control the House and Senate.
10:26 p.m. ET
Trump 89% Chance Of Winning?
Donald Trump has an 89% chance of winning according to prediction market Polymarket.
Trump Media stock has spiked 38% on Robinhood.
Trump is now even odds or better to win the popular vote, something he did not do in 2016 or 2020.
Harris can still win the electoral college by sweeping Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Michigan. But her margins, if she has them, appear razor thin.
10:15 p.m. ET
Treasury Yields Jump
The 10-year Treasury yield is up 14 basis points overnight to 4.43%, which would be a four-month high. The bet is that a Trump presidency would lead to even higher deficits and perhaps unleashing bond market vigilantes.
The Treasury yield “Trump trade” could undermine, to some extent, the “Trump trade” lifting the stock market.
10:09 p.m. ET
Bitcoin Hits Record High
Bitcoin ran to $75,000, running decisively above the March all-time peak of $73,798.
The iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF (IBIT) is up 8% in overnight trade on Robinhood.
10:06 p.m. ET
Stock Futures Keep Running
Dow Jones futures are up 1.5%, S&P 500 futures 1.4% and Nasdaq 100 futures 1.4%. Russell 2000 futures soared 3.4%.
10:01 p.m. ET
Bitcoin Nears Record High
Bitcoin surged to above $73,000, close to the late October short-term high above $73,500 and in reach of the March all-time peak of $73,798.
The iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF (IBIT) is up 6.1% in overnight trade on Robinhood.
Nevada polls have closed, the last of the swing states. But it probably won’t be decisive.
9:59 p.m. ET
Trump Popular Vote, Harris Electoral Win Possible?
Thanks to a strong showing in the South and especially Florida, Trump may come very close to Kamala Harris in the popular vote, though Harris is still likely to eke out that lead.
Meanwhile, Trump has the edge in electoral votes, but Harris still could narrowly win the three Midwest states of Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania.
Needless to say, a popular vote/electoral college flip was seen as an extremely low chance heading into Tuesday.
9:51 p.m. ET
Carl Icahn Sees M&A Boom Under Trump
Activist investor Carl Icahn sees a M&A boom under a second Trump presidency.
A lot of these mergers have been thwarted by the current administration, Icahn said in a Wall Street Journal interview. “If he wins, that’s not going to happen anymore. That’s going to change.”
Easier regulatory approval for takeovers has been seen as a reason why stocks might fare well under Trump.
9:46 p.m. ET
Election Night Sector Winners, Losers So Far
The iShares Expanded Tech-Software Sector ETF (IGV) is up 1.2% on Robinhood.
The Industrial Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLI) rose 1.7%.
The Financial Select SPDR ETF (XLF) climbed 1.5%.
The Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR (XLY) is up just 0.2%.
Invesco Solar ETF (TAN) tumbled 4.2%, perhaps on concerns that a Trump presidency will be bad for green energy.
KraneShares CSI China Internet ETF (KWEB) sank 1.2%, likely on concerns of new Trump tariffs.
9:34 p.m. ET
Trump Wins North Carolina?
Decision Desk HQ has called North Carolina for Trump, though not The Associated Press.
Dow futures leapt 1.1%, S&P 500 futures 0.95%, Nasdaq 100 futures 0.7% and Russell 2000 futures up 2.7%.
The 10-year Treasury yield is at 4.42%.
Bitcoin futures are moving toward $73,000.
9:29 p.m. ET
Trump Stock, Tesla Add To Gains
Trump Media Stock, which has been a Trump election sentiment gauge, is up 20% on Robinhood. Tesla stock is up 5%. Elon Musk has been a huge Donald Trump supporter.
9:21 p.m. ET
Futures Keep Rising As Trump Strong In South
Dow Jones futures are up 1%, with S&P 500 futures rising 0.9% and Nasdaq 100 futures 0.5%.
Bitcoin has jumped to nearly $72,000.
Meanwhile, the 10-year Treasury yield is now at 4.39% while the dollar is pushing higher.
Harris is still on track to win the popular vote, but by less than some pre-election projections.
Trump is doing well in the South, appearing to have the edge in swing states Georgia and North Carolina. Those states have not been called.
Harris has to win the Rust Belt trio of Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania to eke out a victory. Trump needa to break through in just one.
Meanwhile, Bernie Moreno seems to have the edge in the Ohio senate race over incumbent Democrat Sherrod Brown. That would almost certainly give Republicans a majority, with several races left.
9:11 p.m. ET
Election Cheat Sheet
Here’s a checklist of the important presidential states, Senate seats and House races.
9:08 p.m. ET
Small Caps Go Big On Election Night
Futures for the small-cap Russell 2000 jumped 1.8% vs. fair value.
Dow futures are up 0.7%, S&P 500 futures 0.55% and Nasdaq 100 futures 0.3%.
The 10-year Treasury yield has run up to 4.37%.
Bitcoin is right at $71,000.
9:04 p.m. ET
More State Polls Close
Polls are closed across Wisconsin, Michigan, Arizona and Nebraska. The first three are swing states. Trump has already been declared the winner of Nebraska, but the state splits its electoral votes, so Harris could win one.
Iowa also has closed. Trump is favored to win, but a recent poll showed Harris leading.
8:53 p.m. ET
Futures Pare Gains Slightly
Dow futures rose 0.6%. S&P 500 advanced 0.45%. Nasdaq 100 futures climbed 0.2%.
Bitcoin is slightly above $71,000.
Tesla stock is up over 3% on Robinhood. Trump Media is up 14%.
Prediction markets are still solidly favoring a Trump win.
8:43 p.m. ET
Regional Tea Leaves?
Trump appears to be running slightly better than expected in the South, though plenty of votes are left to be counted.
Even earlier in the vote count, there are signs that Harris might be doing a bit better in the Midwest.
But those are very tentative.
Needless to say, both Donald Trump and Kamala Harris have paths to victory. Pennsylvania appears to be an absolute must for Harris.
8:39 p.m. ET
Stock Market Election Reaction Update
Dow Jones futures are up 0.7%, with S&P 500 futures rising 0.6% and Nasdaq 100 futures 0.2%.
Bitcoin is just above $71,000.
The 10-year Treasury yield is holding gains at 4.35%.
8:35 p.m. ET
Florida Marijuana Referendum Fails
A majority of Florida voters backed a marijuana legalization referendum, but failed to get the 60% needed to pass.
How will marijuana stocks react to this news?
The Amplify Alternative Harvest ETF (MJ) is down nearly 4% on Robinhood. AdvisorShares Pure US Cannabis ETF (MSOS) is off 6%.
8:14 p.m. ET
Futures Keep Building Gains
Votes are still trickling and there have been no victories in swing states to give a strong sense of the election’s outcome, but markets aren’t waiting.
Dow futures rose 0.75%, S&P 500 futures climbed 0.6% and Nasdaq 100 futures advanced 0.3%.
The 10-year Treasury yield climbed to 4.35%.
Bitcoin is above $71,000.
Polymarket has Trump with a 68% chance of victory.
8:04 p.m. ET
Extended Trading Over
Extended trading for U.S.-listed stocks ends at 8 p.m. ET, but Robinhood and Interactive Brokers do offer 24-hour trading for many stocks, including Trump Media and Tesla.
Trump Media stock ended the official late-night session up 10.4%, with Tesla stock up 2.9%.
Futures, bitcoin, bond yields and more will keep trading.
8:02 p.m. ET
Pennsylvania Polls Close
The Keystone state will begin reporting votes. Expect a lengthy count, because Pennsylvania didn’t start processing mail-in ballots until Election Day.
7:59 p.m. ET
Key Stock Sectors Rise
The Industrial Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLI) rose 1%.
The Financial Select SPDR ETF (XLF) climbed 1.2%.
The Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR (XLY) gained 1.1%, buoyed by Tesla stock.
7:52 p.m. ET
Futures Strong But A Long Way To Go
Dow futures were up 0.6%, S&P 500 0.45% and Nasdaq 100 0.2%.
Bitcoin has jumped above $71,000.
The 10-year Treasury yield has climbed to 3.41%.
DJT stock is up 19%, while Tesla is up 3%.
Most polls are still open and vote counts are just trickling in. Pennsylvania, pegged as the decisive state, doesn’t stop voting for a few more minutes. The count there could take days.
7:39 p.m. ET
Justice Prevails In West Virginia Senate Race
As expected, Jim Justice won the open West Virginia Senate seat, flipping that to the Republicans.
7:33 p.m. ET
Futures, Bitcoin Rise On Trump Election Bets
Dow Jones futures rose 0.5%, S&P 500 futures 0.4% and Nasdaq futures 0.2%.
Bitcoin rose to about $70,600.
Trump Media stock spiked 20% and Tesla stock jumped more than 4%.
As for prediction markets, Polymarket now sees a Trump victory at 61.5%. At PredictIt, one of the more favorable betting sites for Harris, Trump opened up a lead.
Trump is making a strong showing in Florida, though he was expected to win the Sunshine State.
North Carolina polls have closed.
7:21 p.m. ET
Election Market Update
Dow Jones futures climbed 0.3% and S&P 500 futures rise 0.2%. Nasdaq 100 futures tilt higher.
Bitcoin edges up to about $69,850.
The 10-year yield ticked up to 4.3%.
7:06 p.m. ET
Georgia Polls Close
It starts to get real. Polls closed at 7 p.m. ET in several states, including hotly contested Georgia. Some Georgia polling stations stayed open after fake bomb threats forced their temporary closure.
Vote counts are underway, but it’ll be some time to get a sense of whether Kamala Harris or Donald Trump is outperforming.
North Carolina is next at 7:30 p.m. ET, with Pennsylvania due at 8 p.m. ET.
6:53 p.m. ET
Dow Futures Edge Higher
Dow futures rose 0.1%, along with futures for the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq 100.
6:42 p.m. ET
Election 2024: Congress At Stake Too
Along with the presidential election, control of Congress is in very much in play. Republicans are highly likely to win the Senate, but the House could go either way. It may be days or weeks before it’s clear who controls the House.
Divided government will have a big impact on the next president’s ability to carry out his or her policies.
Just a reminder, here is when polls close and votes will likely be counted in key states.
Also check out this election cheat sheet on key states and districts for Trump vs. Harris and control of Congress.
6:29 p.m. ET
Trump Trade Plays Rise
Donald Trump stock DJT rose solidly late. The Truth Social parent reported a Q3 loss on scant revenue after the close. Trump Media has been a stock market sentiment gauge for Donald Trump’s presidential campaign in recent months.
Tesla stock climbed slightly.
Bitcoin edged up to $69,750 after a strong gain to $69,442.71 at 4 p.m. ET.
6:25 p.m. ET
Election Junkies Heads Up
Want timely, detailed coverage of the actual election results for Kamala Harris and Donald Trump? Check out The Wall Street Journal election results live coverage.
6:15 p.m. ET
Keep A Level Head: Remember 2016
Be wary of big moves in Dow futures or bitcoin overnight, especially early on.
Back on Election Night 2016, when it became clear that Donald Trump would pull off a shock victory, Dow futures initially plunged overnight, but then pared losses, with stocks rising the next day and over the next several weeks.
Conditions are different this time. Neither a Trump nor Harris win would be shocking. Also the major indexes have generally trended higher in recent weeks. But you just don’t know how markets will react.
6:07 p.m. ET
Dow Jones Futures Rise
Dow Jones futures rose 0.1% vs. fair value. S&P 500 futures also climbed 0.1%. Nasdaq 100 futures advanced a fraction.
Bitcoin edged up to about $69,500.
Remember that overnight action in Dow futures and elsewhere doesn’t necessarily translate into actual trading in the next regular stock market session.
5:30 p.m. ET
Trump Media Reports Surprise Loss
Trump Media reported a $19.2 million loss for the third quarter in a surprise Election Day filing after the close. The Truth Social parent, majority owned by Donald Trump, had $1.01 million in revenue, up slightly from recent quarters.
Trump Media stock rose modestly in late trade after a whipsaw regular session.
When Key Polls Close
A handful of states will decide whether Trump or Harris win the presidency. Polls will start to close at 7 p.m.-8 p.m. ET on the East Coast, but many key states will be voting until 9 p.m. ET or even 10 p.m. ET. The House and Senate also are up for grabs, though Republicans are favored to seize the upper chamber.
Many states count mail-in ballots ahead of Election Day. They may have the bulk of overall votes counted by midnight ET. But Pennsylvania and Wisconsin only started to process mail-in ballots on Tuesday morning, which means a huge number of votes may be uncounted when the stock market opens Wednesday morning.
The video embedded in this article discusses Tuesday’s stock market action and potential election impact. It also analyzes Astera Labs stock, Intuitive Surgical (ISRG) and Howmet Aerospace (HWM).
Join IBD experts as they analyze the market after the election on IBD Live
Stock Market Rally
The stock market rally had a strong session on Tuesday, with investors bullish heading into election night.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.9% in Tuesday’s stock market trading. The S&P 500 index jumped 1.2%. The Nasdaq composite leapt 1.4%. The small-cap Russell 2000 ran up 1.9%.
The Dow Jones regained its 50-day line. The S&P 500, Nasdaq and Russell 2000 moved above their 21-day lines.
All remain at key levels, with the stock market election results perhaps providing a big positive or negative catalyst. Many leading stocks look like the S&P 500, pulling back from record highs above a prior consolidation, finding support at the 50-day or 21-day.
Key Election Day Stock Movers
Trump Media stock, which has acted as a stock market sentiment gauge for Donald Trump’s candidacy, leapt 19% intraday before closing down 1.2%. DJT stock has had big swings in the past several weeks.
Tesla stock popped 3.5% to 251.44, snapping a six-session slide, rebounding from its 21-day line. CEO Elon Musk has been a huge Trump supporter, so TSLA stock could move on election results.
AI plays Palantir Technologies (PLTR) and Astera Labs (ALAB) were big winners. Palantir stock surged 23.5% and Astera Labs gapped up nearly 38%, both spiking to record highs on strong earnings and guidance.
AI chip leader Nvidia (NVDA) rose rose 2.85% to 139.93, moving off the 21-day line to just below the 140.76 buy point, according to MarketSurge. Nvidia stock closed with a $3.432 trillion market cap vs. $3.378 trillion for Apple (AAPL).
What Trump Vs. Harris Election Outcomes Mean For S&P 500, Fed Rate Cuts
Bitcoin, Oil, Yields
Bitcoin bounced 3.2% to $69,442.71, ending a two-slide after nearly setting all-time high levels.
U.S. crude oil prices gained 0.7% to $71.99 a barrel.
The 10-year Treasury yield fell two basis points to 4.29%, reversing from a four-month high of nearly 4.37% intraday.
Don’t forget: The Federal Reserve’s next policy meeting starts Wednesday, with a quarter-point rate expected Thursday afternoon. Fed chief Jerome Powell’s comments about future policy will be in focus. The election outcome and likely policies may have a notable impact on future Fed actions.
Time The Market With IBD’s ETF Market Strategy
What To Do Now
Keep a level head. Don’t have a knee-jerk reaction to stock market election results and reaction, especially when the outcome is in doubt. There could be whipsaw action in the near term, with the Fed meeting decision and continued heavy earnings adding to the election news.
When the dust settles, you want to be ready to add or reduce exposure.
Read The Big Picture every day to stay in sync with the market direction and leading stocks and sectors.
Please follow Ed Carson on Threads at @edcarson1971 and X/Twitter at @IBD_ECarson for stock market updates and more.
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