College Basketball Best Bets Today:
We only had five games on Monday and we jump all the way up to 24 here on Tuesday. As I mentioned, it is exam week and so that means we have a much lighter schedule this week than normal. Players have to do what they can to maintain eligibility and coaches are sometimes graded on the academic performance of their players, especially with so many more Division I basketball schools than football schools where academics might be prioritized a little more.
We do have some strong games tonight after a very lackluster slate last night. It is a good slate to sink your teeth into and find some college basketball best bets for today.
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Tracking sheet is here. 2023-24 for reference is here.
This article will run Monday-Saturday. Lines will be from DraftKings, as they are widely available to readers. Shop around for the best prices.
Shout-outs to Bart Torvik, Erik Haslam, and Ken Pomeroy, as those are my three primary resources for information when handicapping.
Check the latest college basketball odds for legal U.S. sportsbooks across the country and our Vegas odds if you share a state with us here at VSiN. Also, give the college basketball betting splits a look for these or any other college basketball games today have your interest.
Odds from DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publish.
Albany Great Danes at Syracuse Orange (-12, 155)
7 p.m. ET
It has been a rough start to the season for Syracuse and second-year head coach Adrian Autry. The Orange are just 4-4 and they’ve only beaten Le Moyne, Colgate, Youngstown State (2OT), and Cornell, winning by just 4, 2, 9, and 10 points. So, this line might look a little big, but they’ve been competitive in neutral and road losses against Texas, Texas Tech, and Notre Dame and I think they’re sitting on a good bit of positive regression.
Let’s start on offense, where the Orange are shooting just 26% from 3. That’s not going to continue. This team is too talented to be 352nd in the nation. Second, they’ll get better at the free throw line. Their 67.6% clip is not likely to continue. Third, they only have a 14% TO%, so they’re going to start getting better looks and convert more of those chances overall.
I think Autry deserves a lot of credit for how much the team has improved on the defensive glass. Right now, they are fourth in ORB% against, but rank 304th in 2P% defense. All of those stats and metrics have the chance to improve tonight against an Albany team that is putrid on defense.
While Syracuse has faced the 29th-ranked schedule per Torvik and 54th in Net Rating per KenPom, Albany’s strength of schedule is in the 300s and yet opponents are shooting 59.5% on 2s (358th) and 37.2% on 3s (322nd). Torvik actually has the Great Danes down for a bottom-15 schedule thus far, as two of their wins have been against lower-division opponents.
Georgetown had 1.301 points per possession against them. Boston U just had 1.151. American University had 1.135. As long as Syracuse plays an ounce or two of defense, they should have an offensive field day and score more than enough to cover this number.
Pick: Syracuse -12
Troy Trojans at Houston Cougars (-27, 132.5)
8 p.m. ET
Troy and Houston get together tonight in a little Sun Belt vs. Big 12 action. As if the spread wasn’t evidence enough, this is not a good matchup for Troy. The Trojans have a 56.7% shot share on Close Twos this season. That is the highest in the nation by 4.5% in terms of games against Division I opponents. Unfortunately, Houston has allowed a 29.8% shot share and just a 49.2% FG% on Close Twos.
That shot share ranks 20th and the FG% ranks 15th. Houston was 20th in shot share against on Close Twos last season. They just don’t allow teams to get to the rim. Troy was sixth in the nation in shot share on Close Twos last year, but 334th in FG%. So, Scott Cross tried to get more rim finishers in the portal.
So far, Troy is shooting nearly 60% on those shots, but they are not a good jump-shooting team. The Trojans are shooting 25% on mid-range 2s and 31.6% from 3. They were 6-for-44 combined in the games against Arkansas and Oregon, the two closest teams that they’ve played to Houston. In those games, Troy had .715 and .826 points per possession.
The other thing a game like this does is take away Troy’s advantages on the offensive glass. This is a game that should be played at a really slow pace given the expectation of Houston winning big, so I don’t see Troy finding a whole lot of points here. Houston takes a ton of mid-range jumpers and actually has a really low FT Rate for how big and athletic they are.
Pick: Under 132.5
