College Basketball Best Bets Today:
We’ve nearly tripled the available number of college basketball games to bet on from Tuesday to Wednesday, as there were eight Division I vs. Division I games on the 5th and there are 23 on the 6th. Even with a data point on most of these teams, it is still difficult to navigate the early-season college basketball waters with so many transfers and new faces in new places.
One trend to follow is that we saw Overs do extremely well on Monday and then saw the total bet up in seven of the eight games on Tuesday. The Over was 5-3, including an Over in the Evansville/North Texas game, which is the only one that had a closing number below the opener. Today, at least as of the morning, we have several games that have moved towards the Under or have stayed right around the opener.
Tracking sheet is here. 2023-24 for reference is here.
This article will run Monday-Saturday. Lines will be from DraftKings, as they are widely available to readers. Shop around for the best prices.
Shout-outs to Bart Torvik, Erik Haslam, and Ken Pomeroy, as those are my three primary resources for information when handicapping.
Check the latest college basketball odds for legal U.S. sportsbooks across the country and our Vegas odds if you share a state with us here at VSiN. Also, give the college basketball betting splits a look for these or any other college basketball games today have your interest.
Odds from DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publish.
Columbia Lions at Villanova Wildcats (-17, 146.5)
7 p.m. ET
Ivy League vs. Big East in this one, as Columbia takes on Villanova. Both teams emerged victorious on Monday, with the new-look Wildcats over Lafayette by 12 and the Lions over Loyola (MD) by a bucket. That first game for Villanova was an indication of how teams play a bit faster early in the season. The game was played to 68 possessions, even though both Villanova (345th) and Lafayette (300th) were bottom 60 teams in adjusted tempo per Bart Torvik.
I think we’re likely to see more of a controlled game out of Villanova here. There are a lot of new faces, namely Jhamir Brickus (LaSalle) and Wooga Poplar (Miami). Villanova had 17 turnovers in that game against Lafayette and Kyle Neptune’s message in practice was likely to slow down and take better care of the basketball.
Ivy League teams can’t really attack the portal that much because of the strict academic requirements of those schools. As a result, the Lions have a lot of guys that were in the program last season, so there should be some decent continuity on the roster. Columbia also has a smaller roster by height, which I don’t think is as problematic against a jump-shooting team like Villanova.
With a slower pace and Villanova working in a lot of new faces, Columbia has a good chance to hang around here getting a 17-point head start.
Pick: Columbia +17
Seattle Redhawks (-8, 146.5) at Eastern Washington Eagles
9 p.m. ET
The Dan Monson era opened with a bit of a dud for Eastern Washington in the 20-point loss to Colorado, but I saw some positives in that performance. The Eagles had 31 shot attempts at the rim against Colorado, so they were able to penetrate the defense. They just struggled to finish, making only 14 of those attempts. They also forced Colorado into 18 turnovers with some high-pressure defense in a game played to just 70 possessions.
Monsoon didn’t run with the Eagles like he did at Long Beach State, so that’ll be something to watch as we go forward. I think that could condense this game a little bit and we have already seen the total move down a few points.
Seattle is playing for the first time this season and I think their losses from last season are rather significant. Alex Schumacher had 5.2 assists per game and also added 13.7 points. He’s gone and Maleek Arrington likely gets the first crack at playing point guard. He’s less of a scorer and had a similar TO% to Schumacher with Idaho State last season.
Seattle’s second-highest usage player was Cameron Tyson, who shot nearly 40% from 3 and took 295 of the team’s 781 3-point shots. Brandton Chatfield, a 6-foot-10 monster on the offensive glass and scorer down low, is now at Iowa State.
Seattle is just generally a regression candidate for me. The offensive losses are noteworthy, especially with just 15 of their 91 dunks from last season on the roster. But, they also held opponents to 29.1% from 3 to rank second in the nation. They’ve been a great defensive team every year under Victor, but that is an extremely low percentage. Given that the Redhawks don’t force a ton of turnovers, I think their offensive and defensive numbers drop off this season.
Pick: Eastern Washington +8
UC San Diego Tritons at San Diego State Aztecs (-10.5, 141.5)
10 p.m. ET
Bragging rights in San Diego are on the line here between UCSD and SDSU. The Tritons and Aztecs squared off last season on December 1 and San Diego State eked out a one-point win in a game that was played to just 61 possessions. Eric Olen’s Tritons were 300th in adjusted tempo last season and Brian Dutcher’s Aztecs were 261st per Torvik.
That game ended 63-62 las year, as Jaedon LeDee hit a game-winning layup with zeroes left on the clock. LeDee, who was far and away San Diego State’s best player and offensive performer, is gone now, along with Micah Parrish (Ohio State) and Lamont Butler (Kentucky). Those are some high-profile schools, so that gives you an idea of the types of players that those guys were. Darrion Trammell, who led the team in assists per game, is also gone. In fact, the top four in assists per game have all moved on. LeDee averaged 21.4 PPG. Nobody else was in double figures.
Obviously somebody will score and Dutcher is a strong head coach, but he’ll have to find some go-to guys.
UC San Diego is bringing back a lot of returning production, though Bryce Pope (USC) is not one of them. He led the team in usage last year. The Tritons still have some scorers, but will miss Francis Nwaokorie’s 61% FG% on 2s.
I expect both offenses to have a tough time here and the pace to be somewhere in the mid-60s, which will require some offensive efficiency to get Over the total. I don’t know that we get enough of it.
Pick: Under 141.5
