One month of college basketball is in the books. So, it’s time to fire up the take machine.
Kidding, kidding. Please no. A few weeks is still such a small sample. But — of course there’s a but — after Feast Week, most teams have played at least one or two games against legitimate competition. Some have thrived. Some … have not. And while there’s plenty of time left for teams to save (or sink) their seasons, we at least have some idea which teams we were too low on and which we overestimated.
Like these teams: five of the biggest early-season surprises and five of their disappointing counterparts.
Surprises
Marquette: Considering Shaka Smart’s two best players from last season, Tyler Kolek and Oso Ighodaro, left for the NBA this summer, it made sense that the Golden Eagles were picked fourth in the Big East this preseason. But a month in, Smart’s squad — the only Big East side in KenPom’s top 20 — looks like the clear conference favorite. Connecticut’s defense is in shambles, opponents are giving Creighton center Ryan Kalkbrenner the full “Fairleigh Dickinson against Zach Edey” defense and Xavier needed four clutch free throws Sunday just to stave off South Carolina State at home. Meanwhile, all Marquette has done is build the nation’s longest active winning streak, deal No. 8 Purdue its only loss this season and showcase the best defense — at least per KenPom’s adjusted efficiency rankings — Smart has had since his VCU days.
Oh, and did we mention senior guard Kam Jones is a budding All-American? He’s averaging career-highs in points (19.6 per game), assists (6.4), rebounds (4.6) and steals (1.6), while also shooting 45.5 percent on 3s. Marquette travels Wednesday to No. 6 Iowa State before hosting No. 11 Wisconsin on Saturday, so this week will prove just how good the Golden Eagles are.
Oklahoma: At Peach Jam in July, Porter Moser was, let’s just say, apprehensive about his team. The rest of the SEC was, too; the Sooners were picked 15th out of 16 teams in the preseason, after losing six of their top seven scorers from last season. But lo and behold, OU is 8-0 after winning a Battle 4 Atlantis tournament that also featured Gonzaga, Indiana, Arizona and Louisville — the last two of which Oklahoma beat en route to the title. OU’s pressure-heavy defense has led the way, as Moser’s team entered Tuesday night fifth nationally in steal rate. It forced 38 turnovers in three games in the Bahamas, converting those takeaways into 52 total points (and at least 14 per contest). Similarly, the Sooners were holding opponents to just 26.5 percent from 3 before Tuesday, a top-20 rate nationally. That might not hold once Oklahoma gets into the meat of SEC play, but it’s been impressive.
Offensively, reclassified freshman point guard Jeremiah Fears — the No. 45 player in the 2024 Class, per the 247Sports Composite — has been a revelation. He’s fourth among high-major freshmen in scoring (16.9 points per game), per CBB Analytics, and the only three guys ahead of him? Projected top-10 picks Dylan Harper, Tre Johnson and Ace Bailey. Senior wing Jalon Moore has been awesome, too; per Synergy, he’s averaging a staggering 1.741 points per possession in transition, which is in the 98th percentile nationally. He’s not afraid to grab it and go:
Oregon: Do we completely buy Oregon? Not quite. But beating all of Texas A&M, San Diego State and Alabama consecutively — and winning the first Player’s Era Festival in the process — is indisputable, even if the Ducks don’t do any one thing at an elite level. On second thought, maybe that thing is coaching; Dana Altman is perennially one of the most slept-on coaches in the sport, and his team is following Oregon football’s lead by establishing itself as an early Big Ten contender.
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Pitt: We picked Pitt sixth in the ACC this preseason, so did not see the Panthers emerging as the ACC’s second-best team, ahead of both North Carolina and Wake Forest. But reigning ACC Sixth Man of the Year Ish Leggett has taken a leap — he’s 22nd among high-major players in scoring (18.4 points per game) as of this writing — and sophomore point guard Jaland Lowe has blossomed into a star. Lowe had a triple-double earlier this season, but even more impressive was leading Pitt to an overtime win Friday at Ohio State, in which the Panthers trailed by six with 1:34 to play. Lowe personally outscored the Buckeyes 8-4 from then on, though, including this sensational game-winning assist where his gravity drew two defenders:
Thanks to those two and former Temple/Houston guard Damian Dunn — who was having a resurgent season before recent right thumb surgery, which should sideline him through the new year — Jeff Capel’s got some serious backcourt punch. The Panthers are top 20 nationally in turnover percentage and 2-point percentage, per KenPom, which is largely why they currently rank 13th in adjusted offensive efficiency (despite some subpar 3-point shooting). Wednesday’s trip to Mississippi State is the team’s last nonconference game of consequence, but Pitt has already established itself as a likely tournament team based on its excellent first month.
Wisconsin: Pitt’s lone loss this season came to Wisconsin, which lost its first game this season 67-64 to Michigan on Tuesday. You could reasonably argue Wisconsin is the biggest winner of the first month of the season, even with Tuesday’s loss. Greg Gard’s team has the best adjusted offensive efficiency of his decade-long tenure, keyed by the Badgers emerging as the nation’s top free-throw shooting team (86.4 percent from the line). But the real reason to be excited about Wisconsin is the emergence of transfer guard John Tonje, the early front-runner for our now-annual “Transfer Turned All-American” Award. The former Colorado State and Missouri transfer missed most of last season with a foot injury. Before dropping 18 points vs. the Wolverines, Tonje was averaging 22.9 points per game, the fourth-most among all high-major players. His 41 vs. Arizona — when he made 21 free throws — was maybe the most out-of-nowhere game this season. But Tonje isn’t just chucking; he’s wildly efficient, too. Per Synergy, he’s in the 80th percentile nationally or better as a cutter, spot-up shooter, pick-and-roll handler and in transition. Tonje was a perfect 10-for-10 on cuts through Wisconsin’s first eight games this season, and you can see why with his ability to read the floor and react:
The top of the Big Ten should be a bloodbath between Wisconsin, Oregon, Purdue, Illinois and Michigan, but the Badgers have a chance as long as Tonje keeps up this pace.
Disappointments
Arizona: This is unthinkable but true: Arizona has lost as many games before December (four) as it did Tommy Lloyd’s entire first season in Tucson. The Wildcats didn’t lose their fourth game last season until mid-January, and February the season beforehand. So, yeah, a 3-4 start is cause for concern. But it isn’t just the losses that should have Arizona fans worried; it’s the team’s offensive ineptitude and how un-Lloyd-like this team looks. The Wildcats can’t shoot — they’re basically 250th nationally from 3, making a measly 31 percent from deep — are prone to getting the ball stolen and are easily posting the worst assist rate of Lloyd’s tenure. Before this season, Arizona finished second, fifth and 25th in assist rate under Lloyd. This year, they’re 242nd. Yikes.
It’s not like Lloyd doesn’t have talent, but the pieces just have not fit together. Star guard Caleb Love has regressed from 3 — he’s shooting 28.6 percent from deep, which somehow isn’t a career-worst — despite taking a career-high percentage of his team’s shots. KJ Lewis and Jaden Bradley have also taken steps back as shooters, and Oakland transfer Trey Townsend started the year 0-for-5 from deep before going 3-for-7 in the Bahamas. Lloyd is still figuring out the rotation of his bigs, too, now that Motiejus Krivas is back from a preseason ankle injury. The season isn’t over, but Arizona has only UCLA left in the nonconference, before it gets into its first season of Big 12 play. Based on what we’ve seen, it could be a rough debut.
Arkansas: There’s a line early on in Brendan Quinn’s recent story on John Calipari that sticks out like a sore thumb now, in the wake of Arkansas’ lackluster start: “I’m not changing at this point,” Calipari said. “I don’t think I can if I wanted to.”
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That is, uh, not what Hogs fans want to hear right now. Arkansas is 6-2 on the surface, but it went 0-2 against its first two quality high-major teams, Baylor and Illinois, while tumbling out of the Top 25 altogether. (A Tuesday win over Miami, which has now lost five straight and hasn’t beaten a top-300 team, is hardly anything to celebrate.) But that quote sticks out because Calipari is basically still just rolling out the ball, same as his late-game tenure at Kentucky — and that went so well that he pulled the escape cord on a lifetime contract worth millions. In basketball parlance, the Razorbacks don’t share the ball well — sub-225th in assist rate — don’t shoot the 3 well, don’t hold onto the ball particularly well and don’t attack the offensive glass whatsoever. And defensively, they cannot defend the pick-and-roll much better than you can, dear reader. Here’s their “defense” against a pick-and-pop:
And here, they’re kind enough to escort Illinois guard Kylan Boswell all the way to the cup.
SEC coaches must be seeing this stuff and licking their chops — as they should be. Never change, Cal.
Connecticut: Speaking of terrible defenses, hello there, UConn! I broke down some of the Huskies’ defensive issues — mainly rotationally — in my post-Maui Invitational roundup, so check that out if you haven’t already.
Wednesday’s home tilt with Baylor — which has a top-10 offense and multiple shot-makers — will further stress those defensive shortcomings, so we’ll find out if Dan Hurley has made the requisite tweaks. And if not? Well, assistant coach Kimani Young — Hurley’s get-back guy — might be busy restraining his boss these next few weeks.
Indiana: It was evident early — like, “first possession of the first game vs. Louisville” early — that the Bahamas might not be kind to Indiana.
“That’s in transition, that’s not fair!” OK. Indiana’s first halfcourt possession in the Bahamas, then:
Louisville is OK offensively, but Indiana’s defense made the Cards look like NBA All-Stars. That’s how you wind up on the wrong end of a 28-point blowout loss, followed by another 16-point blowout vs. Gonzaga the next day, followed by increasingly loud calls for Mike Woodson’s job (again). The individual talents on this team are certainly there, but the fit has not been, and early tests of the Hoosiers’ resilience have not been encouraging. Per Synergy, Indiana rates as “below average” defending spot-up shooters and in transition — ranking in the 26th and 25th percentile nationally in those categories, respectively — while also allowing opposing pick-and-roll handlers to shoot 40 percent from 3. Bigs Oumar Ballo and Malik Reneau are arguably the team’s best offensive talents, so Woodson needs to play them both a lot, but Ballo’s limited footspeed and Reneau’s lack of awareness are difficult problems to coach around. And offensively, Washington State transfer Myles Rice was supposed to solve the team’s point guard problem, but he had 19 turnovers to 26 assists before Tuesday night’s win over Sam Houston State. He’s not alone. Sophomore wing Mackenzie Mgbako had an 11:11 ratio before Tuesday, and both Ballo and Reneau had negative assist-to-turnover ratios. There are pieces here, but Indiana is an early test case of why fit sometimes matters over pure talent.
North Carolina: Could UNC still wind up as the ACC’s second-best team behind Duke? Sure. But that would be surprising, because of a roster construction issue that even the most casual Tar Heel fans could’ve seen coming this offseason.
UNC — which has run its offense through the post for longer than most of our readers (and this writer) have been alive — doesn’t have anywhere near its normal caliber of bigs. The Tar Heels’ frontcourt looks like a fatal flaw, and the thing that could prevent one of the country’s best backcourt trios from making much noise. My post-Maui breakdown touched on a lot of this — with more detailed film analysis — but UNC’s lack of interior size, rim protection and rebounding prowess currently has it in the 10th percentile nationally in transition D and the 26th percentile in post-up D, per Synergy. Combine that with smaller guards who are allowing opponents to shoot 38.8 percent from 3 in spot-up scenarios, per Synergy, and you have a recipe for disaster. Hubert Davis can tweak his defensive schemes, and he has in the past, but at some point, your personnel is your personnel — and North Carolina’s bigs just aren’t at the same level of years past.
(Photo of Marquette’s Chase Ross: Stacy Revere / Getty Images)
