Duke, Kansas, Kentucky and Michigan State face off in the 2024 Champions Classic.
Quickly becoming an annual tradition, the two-game event features three of the top four all-time winningest men’s college basketball programs.
Last year at the United Center in Chicago, Duke out-dueled Michigan State, 74-65, while Kansas beat Kentucky, 89-84.
This season, the event will be held at State Farm Arena in Atlanta. The Blue Devils will play the Wildcats, while the Spartans will play the Jayhawks.
For what it’s worth, underdogs have done quite well in this four-team event, going 8-9 straight up and 12-5 against the spread since the event was introduced in 2011.
Michigan State vs. Kansas odds
(6:30 p.m. ET, ESPN)
| Team | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Michigan State | +6 (-110) | +210 | Over 150.5 (-110) |
| Kansas | -6 (-110) | -258 | Under 150.5 (-110) |
On the surface, I don’t mind the matchup for Michigan State.
Coach Tom Izzo will run an up-tempo ball-screen attack. The Jayhawks’ transition defense and ball-screen coverage looked useless against North Carolina, allowing 69 points on 52 transition and pick-and-roll sets, suitable for a whopping 1.33 PPP.
Meanwhile, Izzo’s managed to scheme a relatively decent interior shell-like defense over the past few years, which should play against Kansas’ interior-based attack. And I’m still worried the Jayhawks lack enough shooting or floor space to adequately support the DaJuan Harris-Hunter Dickinson-KJ Adams ball screen and post-up actions.
But I’m worried about Sparty from a Jimmie-and-Joe’s perspective. Kansas has a two-way talent and experience advantage at every position.
On the interior, Dickinson and Adams are dominant post-up and roll-man threats. Michigan State lost two excellent interior defenders in the off-season (Malik Hall and Mady Sissoko), and this season’s replacements (Carson Cooper, Jaxson Kohler, Xavier Booker, Szymon Zapala) aren’t nearly as effective defensively and are non-existent offensively.
On the Michigan State perimeter, it’ll be tough for Jeremy Fears, Tre Holloman and Jaden Akins to replace the elite two-way guard play that Tyson Walker and AJ Hoggard provided last season.
Harris is an obscenely talented off-the-bounce offensive threat and point-of-attack defensive glove, and Coach Bill Self added some impactful upperclassmen portal transfers like AJ Storr (Wisconsin) and Zeke Mayo (South Dakota State).
I’d lean toward Michigan State from a schematic and projection perspective.
Sparty’s style of play can exploit some of the Jayhawk vulnerabilities, and a few of my most trusted projection sites show value on Michigan State — KenPom projects Kansas as a five-point favorite, EvanMiya projects it as a 4.5-point favorite and BartTorvik projects it as a four-point favorite.
However, Izzo’s team is young (206th nationally in average D-I experience). He’s building his program through internal progression, and I’m still uncertain what we’ll see from many of these “new” players stepping into fresh roles.
Meanwhile, Coach Self’s team is old (third in average D-I experience) and fully formed.
Experience and continuity play well in the non-conference — more cohesive teams generally have the upper hand on lesser ones in November and December.
Ultimately, I’m passing on the game altogether. However, if compelled to wager, I’d take Michigan State.
I think Sparty has avenues to keep the game close, and the line feels a tad inflated in a dog-friendly non-conference event.
Plus, Izzo has scouted Dickinson plenty from the latter’s time at Michigan.
These two faced off six times in the Big Ten, and the future Hall-of-Fame coach might have a few tricks up his sleeve for that matchup.
Pick: Pass | Lean Michigan State +6 (-110, DraftKings)
Kentucky vs. Duke odds
| Team | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kentucky | +6.5 (-112) | +205 | Over 165.5 (-105) |
| Duke | -6.5 (-108) | -255 | Under 160.5 (-115) |
(9:00 p.m. ET, ESPN)
I like Kentucky.
Mark Pope seems like the real deal, and he’s assembled a perfect roster for his scheme.
His four-out, one-in offense thrives on floor spacing, inversion, ball movement, off-ball movement, and shooting.
Eight guys in the rotation, including multiple big men, shot above 30% from deep last year, while guards Koby Brea, Kerr Kriisa, and Jaxson Robinson shot over 35%.
The Wildcats have taken 60 3s through their first two games and made 24 (40%), hitting the 100-point mark in both.
They will space the floor and bomb away, which should work against Duke on Tuesday.
The Blue Devils could be among the nation’s top defensive teams, but it might take some time for Coach Jon Scheyer to put the puzzle pieces together.
Cooper Flagg and Khaman Maluach are highly versatile interior defenders and rim protectors.
At the same time, Caleb Foster and Sion James could be superb perimeter defenders supplementing Tyrese Proctor’s on-ball point-of-attack ball-stopping.
Syracuse transfer Maliq Brown could be one of the ACC’s better “Junkyard Dog” defenders — a jack-of-all-trades type.
But that core features three freshmen, a sophomore and two juniors.
The Blue Devils are young and inexperienced, and Tuesday’s first real test will be a tough one against a complex motion-based offense featuring a deep playbook of set plays.
They could struggle to keep pace, and Pope’s offensive machine will ruthlessly exploit scrambling, out-of-position defenders.
Betting on College Football?
Duke should find and exploit mismatches on offense.
Kentucky has some solid perimeter defensive pieces, like San Diego State transfer Lamont Butler, Oklahoma transfer Otega Oweh and Drexel transfer Amari Williams.
But the Wildcats have more than a few vulnerable defenders, like Brea, Kriisa, Robinson and Wake Forest transfer Andrew Carr.
Duke has so much top-to-bottom off-the-dribble, off-ball, shooting, cutting and rolling offensive talent. The Blue Devils are bound to hunt switches and score.
That said, I believe Pope’s scheme will keep pace for 40 minutes.
The Wildcats are also the older, more experienced roster, ranking fifth nationally in average D-I experience, which will undoubtedly play in early November against a freshman-heavy squad.
Pick: Kentucky +6.5 (-112, FanDuel)
Why Trust New York Post Betting
Tanner McGrath has been a professional sports handicapper since 2018. Specializing in college sports and baseball, he’s a diehard fan of the Vermont Catamounts, the Miami Marlins and any home underdog. He found himself on the wrong side of the Miami Miracle in 2018, but made up for it four years later by hitting a 40/1 long shot on Sandy Alcantara to win the NL Cy Young.
