College Basketball Picks Today:
Expert college basketball handicapper Greg Peterson shares his top college basketball picks today for Saturday, January 4.
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Ball State vs. Kent State – 2:00 PM Eastern
Ball State entered Friday 107th in the nation in points per possession in games played away from home, while Kent State ranks 279th in points per possession on offense, playing at one of the nation’s slowest paces, ranked 320th in total possessions per game.
Ball State +11.5 (Greg’s Handicap Ball State +7.5)
St. Bonaventure vs. Fordham – 2:00 PM Eastern
St. Bonaventure’s defense on the road has been one of the best in the nation, ranking 10th in points per possession allowed on the road. A big reason the Bonnies are the best against the spread team in college basketball right now at 12-1, while Fordham has allowed at least 75 points in six of their past eight games.
St. Bonaventure -6 (Greg’s Handicap St. Bonaventure -10.5)
George Mason vs. Rhode Island – 2:00 PM Eastern
George Mason ranks 339th in turnovers per possession in road or neutral court settings, while Rhode Island is 60th in points allowed per possession and 12th in the country in opponent 3-point shooting percentage.
Rhode Island +1 (Greg’s Handicap Rhode Island -3.5)
Butler vs. St. John’s – 2:00 PM Eastern
For Butler, 3-point shooting is crucial, as their 38.9% 3-point shooting away from home ranks 25th in the nation, while St. John’s is 225th in opponent 3-point shooting (34.6%). St. John’s is also just 197th in 3-point shooting percentage on offense (32.9%).
Butler vs. St. John’s Over 147.5 (Greg’s Handicapped Total 154)
Duke vs. SMU – 2:15 PM Eastern
SMU is 15th in the country in 3-point shooting percentage at 39.1%. After a rocky start to the season on defense, they’ve allowed 72 points or fewer in four of their past six games, while getting to at least 74 points in all but two games this season. SMU ranks 17th in rebound percentage.
SMU +8 (Greg’s Handicap SMU +4.5)
Winthrop vs. Radford – 4:30 PM Eastern
Winthrop has had issues in their backcourt, ranking 225th in turnovers per possession and 354th in road 3-point shooting percentage (24.1%), while Radford is 134th in opponent 2-point shooting percentage and shoots 35.8% from 3-point range at home compared to 31.6% away from home.
Radford +1.5 (Greg’s Handicap Radford -4.5)
Morehead State vs. Tennessee Tech – 4:00 PM Eastern
Tennessee Tech entered Thursday’s win over Southern Indiana 89th in the country in points per possession at home, while Morehead State does nothing to create discomfort for their opponents on defense, ranking 353rd in turnovers per possession forced and 290th in points per possession allowed.
Tennessee Tech PK (Greg’s Handicap Tennessee Tech -8)
San Diego State vs. Boise State – 4:00 PM Eastern
San Diego State ranks 230th in defensive rebound percentage, with opponents rebounding 29% of their missed shots. Boise State is 61st in opponent 3-point shooting percentage at home (26.9%), while San Diego State is 184th in points per possession with a 35.5% 3-point shooting percentage on the road.
San Diego State vs. Boise State Under 137.5 (Greg’s Handicapped Total 133.5)
Louisville vs. Virginia – 4:00 PM Eastern
Louisville’s 3-point shooting has been among the worst at the power conference level this season, ranking 314th at 29.5%, while Virginia is 26th with 38.5% 3-point shooting. Virginia has maintained its pace all season, ranking last in total possessions per game while scoring 17.5 more points per 100 possessions at home than away.
Virginia +4.5 (Greg’s Handicap Virginia -1.5)
Mississippi Valley State vs. Alabama State – 4:00 PM Eastern
Mississippi Valley State’s offense averages 11.6 points fewer per 100 possessions than the next-worst offense in the country in points per possession, while ranking 329th in total possessions per game.
Mississippi Valley State vs. Alabama State Under 139.5 (Greg’s Handicapped Total 135.5)
Oklahoma vs. Alabama – 6:00 PM Eastern
Oklahoma’s 41.6% 3-point shooting in games played away from home ranks 6th in the country, while Alabama is 106th in points per possession allowed on defense. Oklahoma is allowing opponents to shoot just 27.1% from 3-point range, which ranks 4th in the nation—an issue for Alabama, which takes 50.8% of their field goal attempts from 3-point range, the 8th-highest 3-point shot attempt rate in America.
Oklahoma +12.5 (Greg’s Handicapped Oklahoma +9.5)
Incarnate Word vs. Stephen F. Austin – 6:00 PM Eastern
Stephen F. Austin leads the country in turnovers committed on a per-possession basis at home this season. Abilene Christian is 323rd in turnovers per possession on offense, ranking 279th in possessions per game away from home, while Stephen F. Austin is 27th in points allowed per possession.
Incarnate Word vs. Stephen F. Austin Under 133.5 (Greg’s Handicapped Total 128.5)
UT Rio Grande Valley vs. New Orleans – 6:00 PM Eastern
New Orleans entered Friday ranked 353rd in the country in points allowed per possession, while their offense is 277th in turnovers per possession and 349th in points scored per possession, averaging the fewest points per possession of any team that has played a home game against another Division I opponent this season.
UT Rio Grande Valley -7 (Greg’s Handicap UT Rio Grande Valley -10.5)
San Francisco vs. Washington State – 7:00 PM Eastern
San Francisco ranks 38th in the nation in points per possession allowed on defense, while Washington State is without their leader in points per game, Cedric Coward. Washington State ranks 337th in turnovers per possession, and San Francisco plays at a rate nearly two and a half possessions per game slower when away from home than at home.
San Francisco vs. Washington State Under 148.5 (Greg’s Handicapped Total 146)
Campbell vs. UNC Wilmington – 7:00 PM Eastern
Campbell entered Friday ranked 277th in possessions per game and 276th in points per possession, while UNC Wilmington ranks 226th in total possessions per game and 310th in 3-point shooting percentage. Campbell is 260th in 3-point shooting percentage.
Campbell vs. UNC Wilmington Under 146 (Greg’s Handicapped Total 137.5)
California vs. Clemson – 8:30 PM Eastern
Both teams have shot well from 3-point range, with California’s 36% 3-point shooting ranking 73rd in the nation and Clemson’s 37.5% 3-point shooting ranking 40th. However, California is 246th in points per possession allowed and 322nd in opponent 3-point shooting. Clemson is 235th in opponent 3-point shooting percentage at home.
California vs. Clemson Over 146.5 (Greg’s Handicapped Total 153.5)
UC Riverside vs. UC Irvine – 10:00 PM Eastern
UC Irvine has an advantage on the glass, ranking 33rd in rebound percentage and 25th in the percentage of opponents’ missed shots that result in an offensive rebound. They are also 28th in points allowed per possession, while UC Riverside ranks 206th in this department.
UC Irvine -9 (Greg’s Handicap UC Irvine -13)
