Men’s college basketball wastes no time offering up a matchup of contenders — two teams that got Final Four votes in The Athletic’s preseason polling — and a rematch of the 2021 national championship game, Baylor at Gonzaga on opening day Monday.
“Day” is used generously there, considering the game tips at 8:30 p.m. local in Spokane, Wash., 11:30 in the Eastern time zone. This is asking a lot of college hoops fans. But at least those who live in areas that turn the clock back over the weekend will have an extra hour of sleep at their disposal. And there are several other bangers, at friendlier times, before the season reaches one week old: North Carolina at Kansas, Auburn at Houston, Baylor vs. Arkansas in Dallas and Tennessee at Louisville.
This is what the sport must do, come with attractive matchups before we even get to the annual Champions Classic (Michigan State–Kansas and Duke–Kentucky are this year’s pairings), then keep it going through the holiday tournaments. By the end of November, a lot of feasting and finding out will make the national picture clearer.
Here’s the view of The Athletic writers as the season begins: Five different teams were picked to win it all, with 10 teams getting Final Four votes — including Dan Hurley’s UConn Huskies, going for the sport’s first three-peat since John Wooden’s UCLA dynasty won seven straight titles from 1967 to ’73. Before revealing those predictions, we have others:
High-major tournament team from 2024 that’s most likely to miss the tournament in 2025
Colorado. I’ll go with the Buffaloes. They return only 12 percent of their scoring (third lowest in the Big 12) and didn’t add a ton in the portal to combat that. The Big 12 is as good as ever, and the schedule is so important in that league. Starting Feb. 8, Colorado will face Houston, Kansas (twice), Iowa State, Baylor, and Texas Tech in six of their final nine games. — Tobias Bass
Wisconsin. Greg Gard has been vastly underrated since taking over for Bo Ryan, but the Badgers lost four players to high-major programs. You can’t just plug in and replace Chucky Hepburn (Louisville) and AJ Storr (Kansas). Gard will still coach his way to some wins, but it’s going to be a grind to get to .500 in the Big Ten, let alone the NCAA Tournament. — Scott Dochterman
Colorado. Not the most daring pick, but the Buffaloes return zero starters — three of which were NBA Draft picks — from a squad that eked into the field as a No. 10 seed. Tad Boyle has filled holes with NAIA and Division II transfers while plunging into the wheat thresher that is the expanded Big 12. Colorado starts the season ranked 116th nationally by Bart Torvik. Hard to see how that improves into a March Madness bid. — Brian Hamilton
Wisconsin. Greg Gard is a tournament mainstay — the Badgers have made the NCAA Tournament in six of nine seasons under his watch, and it would’ve been seven had the postseason not been canceled in 2020 — but Wisconsin was one of the biggest losers in the transfer portal. AJ Storr and Chucky Hepburn will be focal points at Kansas and Louisville, respectively, and Gard didn’t exactly bring in like counterparts to replace them. (The early returns on Wisconsin’s portal haul have been … uninspiring, to say the least.) There’s enough shooting here to prove me wrong — which I frequently am — but the league is deeper than ever while Gard’s roster is thinner than ever. That’s a tough combo. — Brendan Marks
NC State. Only one starter from the Final Four team returns, and at the end of the regular season last year, the Wolfpack were not going to make it unless they went on a miraculous run. That they did. And it was an amazing story. But it’s back to the bottom half of the ACC this year. — CJ Moore
Clemson. The Tigers bring back three starters from last year’s March run and welcome three veteran transfers, but the biggest piece of all — PJ Hall — is gone, and the current makeup looks like a middling ACC roster. With all due (abundant) respect to Brad Brownell, it would be entirely on-brand to reach the Elite Eight, sign a new contract extension and promptly drop back to reality and miss the NCAA Tournament. With Tony Bennett’s departure, he’s now the second-longest tenured coach in the conference, but the previous three times he reached the dance (2011, 2018, 2021), his follow-up seasons produced records of 16-15, 20-14 and 17-16 heading into Selection Sunday. — Brendan Quinn
Can Brad Brownell take Clemson back to the NCAA Tournament? (Ken Ruinard / Images)
Mississippi State. Chris Jans still has a lot to like, starting with returning All-SEC Freshman Josh Hubbard. Two in-league transfers, RJ Melendez from Georgia and Riley Kugel from Florida, have talent and seek consistency. But Tolu Smith leaves an enormous vacancy inside, and Jimmy Bell’s big body will be missed as well. Jans continues to try to improve MSU’s shooting to compensate, but this looks like an in-between season. — Joe Rexrode
Northwestern. The Wildcats reached their second consecutive NCAA Tournament under Chris Collins last season and made their third appearance in program history. But Boo Buie, the program’s all-time leading scorer, is gone. Fairfield transfer Jalen Leach, who averaged 16.2 points per game last season, will try to fill that role. Northwestern was picked to finish 16th in the 18-team Big Ten in the preseason media poll. — Jesse Temple
Virginia. This is the one that stands out to me. Tony Bennett has now retired, leaving the program in the hands of Ron Sanchez for the year. Obviously, there is significant continuity there, but scouts who have been through to Virginia haven’t really been particularly impressed by the talent level they’ve seen compared to other teams. The Hoos will really need a step forward from Isaac McKneely and Andrew Rohde to create any sort of offense consistently. — Sam Vecenie
South Carolina. The Gamecocks made an impressive leap in Year 2 under Lamont Paris, going from 11-21 in 2022-23 to 26-8 and the NCAA Tournament. But the roster lost three of its top four scorers from a season ago, including leading scorer Meechie Johnson Jr., who transferred back to Ohio State. Paris has added bucket-getting guard Jamarii Thomas from Norfolk State and a top-50 freshman in Cam Scott, but I’m not sure it will be enough to get back to the dance. — Justin Williams
Most interesting mid-major team in the country
Arkansas State. The Red Wolves haven’t played in the NCAA Tournament since 1999, but this is the year that changes. Bryan Hodgson and staff added several key transfers. Kobe Julien (Louisiana) is the Sun Belt Preseason Player of the Year. Two others transferred from high majors — Joseph Pinion (Arkansas) and Rashaud Marshall (Ole Miss) — and Cody Head (Lipscomb) made the ASUN All-Freshman team after averaging 9.9 points per game in league play. — Bass
Bradley. Brian Wardle is building the Braves back into the upper tier of the Missouri Valley Conference, and Bradley has the pieces to win both the conference regular-season and tournament titles. Preseason MVC Player of the Year Duke Deen stands only 5-8, but he’s one of the most prolific mid-major scorers as both a driver and 3-point shooter. Flanked by combo guard Zek Montgomery and forward Darius Hannah, Bradley might develop into one of those scary 12 seeds come tournament time. — Dochterman
Grand Canyon. The Lopes won 30 games last season and return four starters, including Tyon Grant-Foster, the WAC Player of the Year. That group also got a taste of NCAA Tournament success, beating Saint Mary’s in the first round before losing to eventual Final Four participant Alabama in the second. That combination of familiarity and experience could create a Cinderella run come March, especially since no one will pay much attention to the WAC before that. — Hamilton
McNeese. The Will Wade experiment got off to a strong-ass start in Louisiana, leading the Cowboys to the NCAA Tournament in his first season with the program. Three starters are back, and Wade went full-on bandit mode in the transfer portal, grabbing a number of proven contributors: Quadir Copeland (Syracuse), who averaged 9.6 points and 4.6 rebounds per game last season; Sincere Parker (Saint Louis), who led the Billikens in scoring; and former top-100 recruit Brandon Murray (Ole Miss), who made the All-SEC Freshman team while at LSU. This will almost certainly be Wade’s last season there, but it’s setting up to be a special one. — Marks
Princeton. The Tigers made the Sweet 16 two seasons ago and were even better last year but got upset in the Ivy League tournament. Three starters return, including Xaivian Lee, a guard NBA scouts have their eyes on, and Ivy League Player of the Year Caden Pierce. Coach Mitch Henderson runs beautiful offense, equipped with all the back cutting we’re used to from Princeton, but those cuts often set up 3s. Last season the Tigers shot over half their shots from deep, with all five starters firing up at least 70 3s apiece. Make an effort to watch the Tigers, because it’s a team you’re going to want to know when the bracket comes out. — Moore
Fine, I’ll say it: Saint Joseph’s. Alumni bias? Yeah, probably. But hear me out. St. Joe’s has four pieces getting legitimate NBA attention — the backcourt of Erik Reynolds and Xzayvier Brown, ultra-interesting forward Rasheer Fleming, and wild card redshirt freshman Dasear Haskins. On top of that comes talented veteran Rutgers guard Derek Simpson and Harvard shot-blocker Justice Ajogbor. Reynolds might be one of the best, if not the best, non-power conference scoring guards in the country and will likely break Jameer Nelson’s school scoring record. Brown has loads of game, incredible feel and shot 40.4 percent on 171 3s as a freshman. Fleming, at 6-9 with a 7-5 wingspan, might be the most intriguing of all, with a growing mix of skills combining spot shooting, above-the-rim athleticism and rangy defense. In the mid-major feeder system of college basketball, it’s a massive credit to coach Billy Lange and staff that such a core was kept together. The result could be a special season at St. Joe’s. — Quinn
Saint Louis. Another year of Josh Schertz coaching Robbie Avila? Yes, please. And this year, we all know to pay close attention from the start. And we shouldn’t have to fret about not getting to watch them do their thing in the tournament. Schertz also brings high-scoring point guard Isaiah Swope with him from Indiana State, and he got Travis Ford’s best player last year, 6-5 shooting guard Gibson Jimerson, to hop back out of the portal and return to Saint Louis. That’s a great place to start, and Schertz won’t just bring his eye-pleasing offense with him — he should significantly improve what was one of college basketball’s worst defenses last season. — Rexrode
Robbie Avila followed coach Josh Schertz to Saint Louis. ( Jeff Curry / Imagn Images)
Grand Canyon. Coach Bryce Drew led the Lopes to a 30-5 record and a second-round NCAA Tournament appearance last season. Can they reach an even higher level this time around? Leading scorer and WAC Player of the Year Tyon Grant-Foster (20.1 points per game) returns, as does second-leading scorer Ray Harrison (13.5). Grand Canyon also added some firepower through the transfer portal with TCU forward Jakobe Coles and UT-Arlington guard Makaih Williams, who was the WAC Freshman of the Year. — Temple
Grand Canyon, Princeton and McNeese. Grand Canyon and Princeton each have serious NBA prospects in Tyon Grant-Foster and Xaivian Lee, respectively, plus they have coaches who have been there and done it before. McNeese is a bit of a different animal. Will Wade is still there for reasons beyond my comprehension. Seriously, high-major programs that make coaching changes should be shelling out to bring him into their program. He’s an awesome Xs and Os coach who also recruits exceptionally well. The latter can be seen with this roster, where he’s brought in a serious level of high-major talent to play in the Southland. All three of these teams should end up closing in on 30 wins and the NCAA Tournament. — Vecenie
Saint Louis. The Billikens hired Josh Schertz away from Indiana State, and we all saw what he did with his innovative offense while in charge of the Sycamores. He’ll have considerably more resources at Saint Louis and brings a pair of double-digit scorers with him from ISU: Robbie Avila (aka “Cream Abdul-Jabbar”) and Isaiah Swope. — Williams
Bold predictions
• Mark Pope and Grant McCasland lead their teams — Kentucky and Texas Tech — to the second weekend of the NCAA Tournament. To make runs in March you have to have five things: shot makers, NBA-caliber players, the ability to play and adjust to multiple styles, depth and solid coaching. Both teams have all five of those traits. The Red Raiders added four transfers and all have played in at least one NCAA Tournament game. The Wildcats added nine players via the portal — seven averaged at least 10 points per game last year while another, Lamont Butler, averaged 9.4 points and has Final Four experience while at San Diego State. — Bass
• Iowa State finally cracks the Final Four. The Cyclones have flirted with college basketball’s final weekend for 40 years, dating back to Johnny Orr, Tim Floyd, Larry Eustachy, Fred Hoiberg and now with T.J. Otzelberger. But on the heels of unprecedented football success, the Cyclones get it done without a first-team All-American. — Dochterman
• Scout’s honor — and my editors will back me up on this — my original entry was as follows: “One college basketball coaching stalwart — Rick Barnes, Tony Bennett, Mark Few or Kelvin Sampson – decides to walk away after the season.” Well, Bennett made me right a few months ahead of schedule. So my second-most bold prediction? Three teams from the Big 12 make the Final Four. It’ll look like the league is eating itself alive for a few months. But it’ll be like taking the donut off the bat when the NCAA Tournament arrives. — Hamilton
• Rick Pitino makes his postseason return in a big way, leading St. John’s to the Elite Eight behind his newly minted backcourt duo of Kadary Richmond and Deivon Smith. The Johnnies probably should have been in the field last year — they played UConn as close as anyone the last three weeks of the season — and that was with a roster Pitino cobbled together on the fly. Now that he’s had a year to set things how he likes? Expect one of college basketball’s best-ever coaches to remind the world of how he made his name. — Marks
• The Big Ten sends 10 teams to the NCAA Tournament and not one makes the Elite Eight. The league is deep and has a lot of good teams, but I don’t see an elite one. — Moore
• The Big Ten will, at last, finally win its first national title in 25 years. … Nah, just kidding. It won’t. In fact, I’ll boldly predict the Big Ten repeats last year’s lackluster six-bid showing in the NCAA Tournament, despite adding four new teams. — Quinn
• A year after nice guy Matt Painter finally shut everyone up, nice guy Mark Few will do the same. Painter finally got Purdue to its first Final Four since 1980. Few will win Gonzaga’s first national championship, after a few of his teams — most notably the 2020-21 team that didn’t lose until the very end — were good enough to do it. Why this one? Tons of returning depth, talent and experience, anchored by point guard Ryan Nembhard and big man Graham Ike. It’s time. — Rexrode
• John Calipari takes Arkansas to the Final Four in Year 1. Calipari needed a new situation after things had grown stale 15 seasons into his Kentucky tenure. He found it at another SEC program that just three years ago reached back-to-back Elite Eights under Eric Musselman. Sure, Calipari hasn’t made a Final Four since his 2015 Kentucky team was 38-0 and lost to Wisconsin. But he has yet another loaded roster capable of making a deep run — and he’ll get it done in Year 1 in Fayetteville. — Temple
• Villanova bottoms out and ends up having to make a coaching change at the end of the 2024-25 season. NBA scouts have not come away particularly impressed with the talent level. This is a critical season for Kyle Neptune following a disastrous 2023-24 season that saw him miss the NCAA Tournament with what was thought to be a fairly expensive roster from an NIL perspective. For perspective, multiple scouts have told The Athletic that they were more impressed with nearby Saint Joseph’s overall talent level. The Wildcats miss the tournament, end up with a losing record in Big East play and decide that the Neptune era isn’t working out. — Vecenie
• Cincinnati reaches the Sweet 16. The Bearcats haven’t made the NCAA Tournament since 2019, Mick Cronin’s last season at the helm, and haven’t advanced to the second weekend since 2012. But head coach Wes Miller, entering Year 4 at Cincinnati and the program’s second season in the Big 12, has the Bearcats at No. 20 in the preseason AP Top 25 and with the deepest and most talented roster in years. — Williams
Final Four and national championship picks
Bass
Final Four: UConn, Houston, Iowa State, Gonzaga
Champion: Houston
Dochterman
Final Four: UConn, Alabama, Gonzaga, Iowa State
Champion: Alabama
Hamilton
Final Four: Kansas, Houston, Arizona, Gonzaga
Champion: Gonzaga
Marks
Final Four: Kansas, Alabama, Duke, Iowa State
Champion: Kansas
Moore
Final Four: Alabama, Gonzaga, Houston, Kansas
Champion: Alabama
Quinn
Final Four: UConn, Gonzaga, Houston, Duke
Champion: UConn
Rexrode
Final Four: Alabama, Gonzaga, UConn, Baylor
Champion: Gonzaga
Temple
Final Four: Kansas, Alabama, Iowa State, Arkansas
Champion: Kansas
Williams
Final Four: Kansas, Gonzaga, Baylor, Texas A&M
Champion: Gonzaga
Vecenie
Final Four: Alabama, Gonzaga, Houston, UConn
Champion: UConn
(Photos of Dan Hurley, John Calipari: Robert Deutsch, Nelson Chenault / Imagn Images)
