Vaughn Dalzell breaks down how to bet on Duke vs North Carolina, Colorado at UCF, Baylor and BYU, plus more!
#22 BYU at Baylor (-3): O/U 45.5
Baylor should have won last week but a Sheduer Sanders hail mary and a fumble on the goal line of their OT possession kept the Bears out of the win column in historic fashion. On the other sideline, BYU was a winner last weekend absolutely pummeling Kansas State as a home underdog.
BYU is 4-0 ATS this season, so most people will play them based on that or the fact they are riding high and ranked after beating Kansas State. However, ranked road teams that are pegged as an underdog against an unranked home team do not perform well, but there’s more.
I think BYU is being overvalued too and going on the road is no easy task. Digging deeper, BYU will change time zones early in the morning for a Big 12 game with a 12 ET kickoff in a PT time zone, which hasn’t boded well for BYU historically either (2-12 in the last 14-day games and lost the last 10 matinee games).
Give Baylor -3 at -120 odds on BetMGM out to -4. I lean toward the Bears in the first quarter to lead if you want to get in and get out of this game.
Pick: Baylor -3 (2u)
*odds courtesy of BetMGM
Colorado at UCF (-14.5): O/U 64.5
The Colorado offensive line hasn’t been that great this season, we know that, but they get a good matchup at UCF.
The Knights are a below-average team when it comes to pressure rate, ranking 77th, which is why they have two sacks on the season. UCF ranks 106th in blitz rate too, so Colorado could keep Shedeur Sanders clean, which is key since he ranks the 3rd-highest PFF grade in all of College Football when he has a clean pocket.
Colorado’s defense has improved since last year, but they have a challenging task with UCF’s No. 1 rushing attack (375 ypg). Both of these teams could move the ball offensively and if it’s a shootout, Colorado can hang in with UCF.
UCF’s defense was torched by TCU for 35 points and the Horned Frogs QB, Josh Hoover posted 402 passing yards and four touchdowns on 35-of-52 passing. Sanders could do the same.
Give me Colorado +14.5 (-110) down to +14 on BetMGM. For my longshot sprinkles this week, I played Sanders to throw for 325-plus yards at +200 odds and both teams to score 10-plus points in the first quarter at +1300 odds on FanDuel.
Pick: Colorado +14.5 (1u)
*odds courtesy of BetMGM
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North Carolina at Duke (-2.5): O/U 56.0
North Carolina was historically bad on defense against James Madison. The Tar Heels allowed a program-record 70 points in the loss, but there is no time to sulk because a road rivalry game at Duke is on deck.
Duke has not beaten UNC in football since 2018 and will be licking its chops here. UNC will have its third backup quarterback of the season (Jacolby Criswell) and Duke’s defense is giving up 15.3 points per game and 259.3 yards per game to some pretty bad opponents (Elon, Northwestern, UConn, Middle Tennessee).
When these teams met last year, we had a doozy. Duke won 47-45 in 2OT and the quarterback battle was much different. It might be unpopular to take an Under on UNC in the next game, but I don’t think Duke’s offense will be that productive in a rivalry matchup and ACC opener.
According to Action Network, since 2019, teams that allow 50+ points in their previous game when listed as the favorite like UNC, have seen the UNDER go 48-24-1 (66.6%) in the following contest. Give me the Under 56.0 (-110). I’d go down to 54.0 for a full unit.
Pick: Duke vs North Carolina Under 56 (1u)
Air Force (-4) at Wyoming: O/U 34.0
When these teams met last season, Air Force won 34-27, and this season we have a total of 33.5 or 34.0!
While both teams are 0-7 ATS, it’s safe to say neither has performed up to par. Air Force’s offense averages 10.3 points per game and 3-1 to the Under this year. Wyoming’s offense hasn’t been able to muster up more than 17 points yet but the defense has pushed the Over to 3-1 for the Cowboys.
Air Force is coming off a bye week, so they should be prepared to limit Wyoming’s offense. The Falcons are 4-1 in the last five seasons following a bye week. Air Force had a season-high in rushing yards against Baylor (193) and forced three turnovers yet mustered up three points in a 31-3 loss.
The last time they met in Wyoming, the score was 17-14, something we could see again. There is a reason for this being the lowest total of the season and I am buying in for a sweat. Give me the Under 34 (-110) in Air Force and Wyoming down to 33.0.
Pick: Under 34 (1u)
Season Record: 15-26 (36.5%) -14.52 units
Last Week: 1-5 (16.6%) -2.86 units
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