Vaughn Dalzell breaks down his College Football Week 3 plays starting with Michigan hosting Arkansas State and a few rivalry matchups.
Arkansas State at Michigan (-23.5): O/U 47.5
The Michigan Wolverines had a lot of problems hosting Texas last week which ended their home-winning streak, but a lot of those issues will be repatched with duct tape when Arkansas State comes to town.
The Red Wolves have escaped with two wins by a combined seven points against Central Arkansas and Tulsa, including a touchdown with 3 seconds left to beat Central Arkansas. Jaylen Raynor has been sacked four times and thrown two interceptions through two games, plus the team has four fumbles.
Michigan’s pass rush and pass defense are as good as it gets so I expect Arkansas State to be overmatched early in this game and quite a few turnovers and 3-and-outs. I played Arkansas State’s Team Total Under 12.5 at -113 odds and would go down to 10.5. This is my best bet of the weekend.
Pick: Arkansas State Team Total Under 12.5 (2u)
*odds courtesy of BetMGM
Washington State vs. Washington (-5): O/U 56.5
This is a neutral field meeting at Lumen Field in Seattle where the Seahawks and I think we’re in for a doozy here. Last year, Washington won 24-21 at home and extended their winning streak to two games in this series.
The Huskies have won 9 of the last 10 meetings with Washington State, so over the past decade, it hasn’t been quite a rivalry. However, we have to adjust our expectations to what Washington is now.
Washington has a new coaching staff, a quarterback who leads a lackluster offense, and a solid defense that hasn’t had any challenges yet. The Huskies struggled with Eastern Michigan and without two quick touchdowns in the final 3:04 of the first half, Washington would have been on upset alert.
I played Washington State +5 at -110 odds and the ML at +165. I would go down to +3 on the Cougars spread.
Pick: Washington State +5 (1u), Washington State ML (0.5u)
Indiana (-3) at UCLA: O/U 46.0
The Peacock Game of the Night will be an intriguing one between two first-year head coaches in the Big Ten, plus this marks the UCLA Bruins first-ever game in the Big Ten.
I am a huge supporter of Curt Cignetti, the Indiana Hoosiers head coach. He coached at my alma mater IUP when I was a student and sports writer for the local newspaper, so I have a lot of respect for his career climb. However, this isn’t an ideal spot.
The Hoosiers outscored its opponents 108-10 through two games but those teams were FIU and Western Illinois. They fly across the country to face UCLA at 10:30 ET, plus the Bruins have had the past 10-plus days off to rest, focus, and gameplan for Indiana.
I admit, that UCLA did not look good in the first half versus Hawaii, but there was some promise in the second half. I will take the home underdog here. I’m on UCLA +3 (-105) and the ML (+136).
Pick: UCLA +3 (1u), UCLA ML (0.5u)
*odds courtesy of BetMGM
West Virginia (-3) at Pitt: O/U 63.5
The Backyard Brawl is one of the better rivalries in football and this year should be another memorable game in the third year of this game being renewed.
Pitt won 38-31 in Pitt and WVU won 17-6 in Morgantown, so the home team is 2-0 on the ML and 2-0 ATS, which I think does continue here.
Neither team will look the same offensively as when they met last year, which is why the total is 60.5. The home crowd will play a factor here as this is one, and usually the only game that Pitt will sell out.
The Panthers showed a lot of grit last week with a come-from-behind 28-27 victory against Cincinnati. That momentum should carry over into this week as the look-ahead spot wasn’t a problem for the Panthers. I played Pitt +3 (-115) and took the ML at +130.
Pick: Pitt +3 (1u), Pitt ML (0.5u)
Air Force at Baylor (-16.5): O/U 41.5
The Air Force offense has been on the struggle bus to start the season with 21 points against Merrimack and 17 in a loss to San Jose State, both home games. Now, the Falcons go on the road to Baylor before having a bye week.
Baylor’s offense is nothing to gloat about either with 12 points in a loss at Utah. Baylor’s new-look offense is still trying to find itself with Toledo transfer Dequan Finn under center. Finn completed 53% of passes through two weeks and Air Force is ranked 25th on third-down defense so far and normally a solid defense, so I don’t expect much from Finn.
Finn likes to run, he has 19 attempts in two games, and Air Force is prolific against stopping running quarterbacks and teams, so this one looks like an Under play to me. I grabbed the Under 41.5 (-110) and would go down to 39.5.
Pick: Under 41.5 (1u)
*odds courtesy of BetMGM
Troy at Iowa (-22.5): O/U 39.0
I was hoping the Iowa Hawkeyes could be the 2023 Michigan Wolverines for us and be a gauntlet of a defense that cashes us Team Total Unders every week, but Iowa State had one hell of a fourth quarter to not only beat Iowa but go Over their Team Total.
I will run it back and bet on Iowa’s defense to be dominant and not only more than one score to the Troy Trojans. Troy is 0-2 with losses to Nevada (28-26) and Memphis (38-17).
In the previous game versus Memphis, their starting QB Goose Crowder was injured and is listed as probable for Iowa. Without Crowder, Troy kicked a field and scored a meaningless TD in the 4th quarter down 38-10, so they will need him to sniff the red zone at Iowa.
I don’t think Troy’s passing game or ground game is enough of a threat to find the end zone more than once, so I took the Trojans Team Total Under 7.5 at -130 odds. I’d play Under 6.5 for +125 or better.
Pick: Troy Team Total Under 7.5 (1u)
Shedeur Sanders Over 2.5 Passing TDs (+116) vs. Colorado State
I will be in Denver this weekend and I have to watch this game from a sports bar or something because I want the townie experience for Colorado at Colorado State.
Shedeur Sanders tossed 3 second-half TDs in that game and finished with 4 through the air in addition to 348 yards, 47 pass attempts, and 1 interception.
Colorado is not likely to find the end zone unless Sanders throws the ball, which should be the play call at least 90% of the time with this lackluster offensive line and running game.
Sanders has thrown at least two or more passing TDs in 8 out of the last 13 games (61.5%) and three or more in five of 13 (38.4%). In that same span, in wins or losses by only single-digits, he threw at least 2 TDs in 8 out of those 9 games (88.8%) and 3+ in 5 out of 9 (55.5%). So give me Sanders Over 2.5 Pass TDs for plus money.
Pick: Shedeur Sanders Over 2.5 Pass TDs (1u)
Season Record: 8-17 (28.5%) -12.28 units
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