There was hardly any movement at the top of the College Football Playoff rankings after Week 13.
The top four teams remained the same as Notre Dame moved up a spot to No. 5. The Fighting Irish are behind Oregon, Ohio State, Texas and Penn State.
Miami is at No. 6 ahead of Georgia, Tennessee, SMU and Indiana. The Volunteers and Hoosiers were big beneficiaries of Alabama, Ole Miss and Texas A&M all losing in Week 13. If Tennessee and Indiana win on Saturday, they are almost surely in the 12-team playoff.
First-round byes
No. 1 Oregon
No. 2 Texas
No. 3 Miami
No. 4 Boise State
The teams that had byes after Week 12 are the same four teams that had byes in the 12-team bracket after Week 13. Remember, the top four conference champions will receive first-round byes in the playoff.
First-round games
No. 12 Arizona State at No. 5 Ohio State
No. 11 Indiana at No. 6 Penn State
No. 10 SMU at No. 7 Notre Dame
No. 9 Tennessee at No. 8 Georgia
While it’s possible that the current projected top four seeds will be the four teams getting byes in the playoff, this current projection of first-round games is not representative of what we will see in the final rankings.
SMU will play either Clemson or Miami for the ACC title. If the Mustangs win the ACC title, they’re likely a top-four seed. If they lose, they could fall out of the at-large group entirely. Georgia is in a similar situation. The Bulldogs are a top-four seed with a win over Texas or Texas A&M in the SEC title game. If they lose that game, our guess is the Bulldogs will be in the playoff, but they may not host a first-round game.
Ohio State also has an opportunity to jump into the top four with a win over Michigan in Week 14 and a win over Oregon in the Big Ten title game. If the Buckeyes do that, they’re probably the No. 1 seed.
The top two teams left out of this week’s bracket are Clemson and Alabama, the top-ranked three-loss team. The Tigers are a fascinating test case. If Miami beats Syracuse, Clemson won’t play for the ACC title. But a win over a South Carolina team ranked at No. 15 will go a long way for the Tigers’ chances of an at-large berth ahead of the loser of the ACC title game or another team.
What about Tulane?
The biggest takeaway from Tuesday night’s rankings is where the committee has the four teams tied for first in the Big 12 relative to Tulane.
Arizona State is the highest Big 12 team in the rankings at No. 16. The Green Wave are a spot behind the Sun Devils and ahead of Iowa State at No. 18 and BYU at No. 19. Colorado is No. 25. The Buffaloes have one more loss than the other three teams it’s tied with.
ASU wins any four-way tie at 7-2 in the conference. The Sun Devils are in the Big 12 title game with a win over Arizona on Saturday. Iowa State would be the second team in the conference title game in a four-way tie with its win over Kansas State. The No. 23 Wildcats beat Tulane in New Orleans in September.
The Green Wave have been fantastic in AAC play and are set to play Army for the conference title on Dec. 6. If they blow out Memphis on Thursday night and also win convincingly over Army — a team that was ranked last week before Notre Dame drubbed the Black Knights — Tulane has a case to be ranked ahead of a two-loss Big 12 champion.
If that happened, the Big 12 could be left out of the playoff entirely if Boise State wins the Mountain West and finishes the season at 12-1. We’re not sure the committee would ultimately put an 11-2 Tulane team ahead of an 11-2 Big 12 champion, but it’s a scenario that’s worth watching given Tuesday night’s rankings.
1. Oregon (11-0)
2. Ohio State (10-1)
3. Texas (10-1)
4. Penn State (10-1)
5. Notre Dame (10-1)
6. Miami (10-1)
7. Georgia (9-2)
8. Tennessee (9-2)
9. SMU (10-1)
10. Indiana (10-1)
11. Boise State (10-1)
12. Clemson (9-2)
13. Alabama (8-3)
14. Ole Miss (8-3)
15. South Carolina (8-3)
16. Arizona State (9-2)
17. Tulane (9-2)
18. Iowa State (9-2)
19. BYU (9-2)
20. Texas A&M (8-3)
21. Missouri (8-3)
22. UNLV (9-2)
23. Illinois (8-3)
24. Kansas State (8-3)
25. Colorado (8-3)
