The Kansas City Chiefs are trying to do something no team has ever done: win three straight Super Bowls.
The rest of the NFL is trying to stop them.
Here are the key elements of the Chiefs’ success, which will again play a role in their quest — and could provide clues to how other teams can unseat the kings of the NFL.
Other stories in series: How past 3-peat bids failed | Steve Spagnuolo’s genius | What if Travis Kelce hits wall? | Rookies who could lift KC | Good luck trying to replicate Chiefs’ success
The Kansas City Chiefs are favored to win another Super Bowl, which would be their third in a row. But some teams aren’t that far behind in the odds.
While it’s getting harder to believe that Patrick Mahomes and Co. will lose in the playoffs, it can happen. Which teams are the most likely to end the Chiefs’ quest for a three-peat? The easiest guide is to check out the odds to win Super Bowl LIX. The Chiefs lead the Super Bowl odds at +550, and they’re +300 to win the AFC.
Here are the top five contenders with all the odds from BetMGM.
Super Bowl odds: +600
The case for them: The 49ers actually were favored when the Super Bowl odds for this upcoming season opened. That didn’t change until after the NFL Draft. The Chiefs added speedy receiver Xavier Worthy in the first round while the 49ers dealt with receiver drama between Brandon AIyuk and Deebo Samuel trade speculation.
The case for the 49ers knocking off the Chiefs is easy: They were on the verge of doing it a few months ago. The 49ers led twice in the fourth quarter and again in overtime of Super Bowl LVIII before Mahomes got them in the end. Had it not been for a punt bouncing off a 49ers blocker and being recovered by the Chiefs, or a couple other plays that went against San Francisco, this story might be about whether the 49ers are a budding dynasty themselves. Practically the entire roster that led a Super Bowl in overtime returns, including Aiyuk and Trent Williams, now that they’ve resolved their contract holdouts. The 49ers have the defense to slow down Mahomes and the offense to keep up with the Chiefs. It’s just a matter of finishing the job, which they couldn’t do in the last Super Bowl.
Super Bowl odds, AFC championship odds: +1000, +550
The case for them: The Ravens were the better team than the Chiefs last regular season. That didn’t matter in a flat AFC championship game loss, though if Zay Flowers would have held onto the ball instead of fumbling right before he crossed the goal line, maybe that game would have turned out differently.
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There can be an odd fascination with saying players or coaches “can’t win the big one,” and that’s getting to be a part of Lamar Jackson‘s story. It seems more like Jackson can win the big one, he just hasn’t yet. He’s a two-time NFL MVP and likely heading to the Pro Football Hall of Fame for good reason. The Ravens were awesome last season and while they didn’t have a great offseason, they bring a lot back and have a long history of being contenders. In the matchup against the Chiefs prior to the AFC title game last postseason, Baltimore won 36-35 in a thrilling comeback early in the 2021 season. So it’s not like they can’t beat the Chiefs. Like the 49ers, they just have to finish the job. Maybe it’s this season.
Super Bowl odds: +1200
The case for them: This one is easy. Less than a year ago, in the opening game of the 2023 season, the Lions beat the Chiefs 21-20 at Arrowhead Stadium. If they can win in Kansas City, they can win on a neutral field in a Super Bowl. The Chiefs will argue that in that loss they were without Travis Kelce, who was injured, and Chris Jones, who was holding out, and that’s fair. But the Lions have a formula that plays well against the Chiefs.
Detroit has a great offensive line and two effective running backs in David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs. They can keep Mahomes and Kansas City’s offense off the field. When the Lions trailed in that Week 1 game last season, they went on an 80-yard drive that lasted nine plays, and six of those plays were runs. The Lions scored a go-ahead touchdown on a Montgomery run and the Chiefs couldn’t answer after that. Detroit isn’t scared of a shootout either. The Lions were fifth in the NFL in points scored last season, scoring 90 more than the Chiefs. The Lions wouldn’t be intimidated by Kansas City, even in a Super Bowl.
Super Bowl odds: +1200
The case for them: Like a few other teams on this list, the Eagles seemingly had the Chiefs beaten in a playoff game, only to let Patrick Mahomes come back and beat them in the end. The Eagles led the Chiefs 24-14 at halftime of Super Bowl LVII and led going into the fourth quarter. They just couldn’t put the Chiefs away. Any game decided on a field goal as time expires could go either way. It just wasn’t the Eagles’ day.
The Eagles are one of the more complicated teams on this list because it’s hard to know what to make of them after a horrible finish to last season. But if the Eagles have gotten past that, and new coordinator hires on offense and defense fix some of the issues that led to the collapse, Philadelphia has the talent to compete with the Chiefs or anyone else. This offseason, Pro Football Focus had the Eagles ranked as the third-best roster in the NFL behind the 49ers and Chiefs, and there’s an argument to be made that Philadelphia could top that list. This is a team that won 26 of 31 games, counting playoffs, before last season’s weird finish. The Eagles went punch-for-punch with the Chiefs in a Super Bowl and could do so again if they get the opportunity, but with a different result.
Super Bowl odds, AFC championship odds: +1300, +700
The case for them: The Bengals are one of the few teams that can brag about a playoff win over Patrick Mahomes’ Chiefs. They won in overtime of the AFC championship game three seasons ago, then lost the AFC title game two seasons ago with three seconds left after a close roughing the passer penalty on Mahomes as he stepped out of bounds. The Bengals haven’t backed down on a big stage against the Chiefs. Joe Burrow has started four games counting playoffs against Mahomes and the Chiefs, and the Bengals are 3-1 in those games.
The Bengals had a down 2023, and while there are some concerning underlying reasons for it, it’s also possible that Cincinnati will bounce right back with Burrow healthy again. Cincinnati’s defense, which is still led by coordinator Lou Anarumo, has done pretty well against Mahomes. The Bengals’ offense is certainly capable of keeping up with the Chiefs if Burrow is back to his old form after a wrist injury. It’s not too hard to envision the Bengals beating the Chiefs in a playoff game, even at Arrowhead Stadium. They’ve done it before.
