Those chants of “Thank you, Giants” in Philadelphia could soon be replaced by something else.
“MVP.”
Some are starting to suggest the Eagles running back Saquon Barkley might be in the midst of an MVP run. Given recent history, however, the odds are against him.
Literally. He’s a 50-1 long shot to win it with one major sports book. It’s 60-1 at another, and 80-1 at another.
A non-quarterback last won MVP in 2012. Vikings running back Adrian Peterson made a late run at the single-season rushing record and, even though he fell short, Peterson overcame Peyton Manning in his first season with the Broncos.
Since then, it’s all quarterbacks. Quarterbacks from teams that earned a first-round bye. Since the playoff field expanded to 14 teams and the byes shrank to one per conference in 2020, the MVP has only gone to the quarterback of a No. 1 seed (Aaron Rodgers, Aaron Rodgers, Patrick Mahomes, Lamar Jackson in 2020, 2021, 2022, and 2023, respectively).
Barkley currently has 1,137 rushing yards. He’s on pace for 1,933. With 210 receiving yards, his current yards-from-scrimmage production projects to 2,290. And his 10 total touchdowns through 10 games leads to (reaches for calculator) 17 touchdowns for the season.
It adds up to a special season, but probably not special enough to overcome the quarterback of one of the top-seeded teams.
It becomes intriguing if the Eagles earn the No. 1 seed in the NFC. Would quarterback Jalen Hurts be the de facto MVP candidate from Philly, or would it be Barkley? Throw in the fact that the voters now rank five names for MVP, and Barkley could pull an inside straight if he’s the consensus No. 2 and the voters split the No. 1 between the quarterback from the top seed in the AFC and the quarterback from the top seed in the NFC.
Regardless, Barkley is going to have to go off more, even more than he has, to get serious consideration. The current pace would put him at No. 10 on the all-time single-season rushing list and 12th in single-season yards from scrimmage.
Maybe he’ll turn it up another notch or two. Maybe, in the same way he gets stronger as a game goes on, he’ll get stronger as the season goes on.
For now, however, it’s a little early to get on the train. As evidenced by the betting odds.
