This NFL season is not lacking drama, but it’s running a little short on intrigue.
Sometimes, three-quarters of the 32 teams still have at least a flicker of hope heading into the final weekend of the season. This year, 15 teams already have been mathematically eliminated.
Still, there’s drama to be had, and the league has scheduled Week 18 accordingly.
The thinking behind the scheduling:
Go North
It’s unusual to have a single division showcased on Saturday, but that’s the case this year with Cleveland playing at Baltimore in the early game followed by Cincinnati at Pittsburgh.
The AFC North is still up for grabs, with Baltimore and Pittsburgh still in the hunt. If the Ravens win, they are division champs. So why schedule that game first? Because the Steelers still will be incentivized to lock up the No. 5 seed. That team gets to open at Houston, as opposed to playing an ostensibly tougher game at Baltimore.
At least on paper, seeding matters more in the AFC than the NFC this season.
Read more: Rams playoff explainer: Here are the four teams they could face
Even if the Ravens begin Saturday with a win, Pittsburgh has something to play for — as does Cincinnati. To keep their back-from-the-dead playoff hopes alive, the Bengals need to win Saturday night then pray that both Denver and Miami lose on Sunday.
Cincinnati-Pittsburgh is a huge game, and the NFL wanted it in a national window as opposed to having it broadcast regionally on Sunday.
As a side note, both Saturday games are on ESPN, and that network had something of a rough go of it this season. Dallas was on “Monday Night Football” twice, and so was San Francisco, and both of those teams were expected to be a lot better when the schedule was drawn up last spring.
The league wanted to do this particular network partner a solid by scheduling a couple of really good games for Saturday.
Run, Eagles, Run
Philadelphia is out of the running for the No. 1 seed by virtue of Minnesota’s win on Sunday, but there’s still something big at stake for the Eagles’ game against the New York Giants on Sunday morning.
Eagles running back Saquon Barkley is 101 yards away from breaking Eric Dickerson’s single-season rushing record of 2,105 yards, which the Rams star set in 1984. Even more dramatic, Barkley has a chance to get the mark against his old team.
Question is, do the Eagles go for that record or rest up in preparation for the playoffs?
Either way, the NFL saw it as a compelling piece of drama for Sunday’s early games.
Southern Comfort
The NFC South crown has come down to Tampa Bay and Atlanta, and the Buccaneers are in the driver’s seat. If they beat New Orleans — or Atlanta loses to Carolina — Baker Mayfield & Co. win the division.
Atlanta cannot make the playoffs as a wild-card team. The Falcons have to win, and hope the Buccaneers lose.
So the NFL wanted to have those games scheduled at the same time as not to spoil the intrigue. What’s more, the NFC South matchups are on different networks so interested fans can toggle back and forth.
Only in L.A.
Both the Rams and Chargers are in the playoffs, and the Rams get to host a wild-card game by virtue of clinching the NFC West. For both teams, Sunday is about seeding.
Again, seeding probably isn’t as important in the NFC as the AFC this season, so the Rams might opt to give their starters a breather for Sunday’s game against Seattle. Then again, they risk losing momentum heading into the postseason. Aside from seasoned quarterback Matthew Stafford, they are a pretty young team and their offense has struggled at times to get in the groove.
What’s more, although there might not be a big difference between the three and four seed in the wild-card round, it might be a huge deal in the divisional round. It could wind up being the difference between the Rams playing host to a divisional game or hitting the road, should they win their postseason opener.
As with Pittsburgh, the Chargers likely would be better off as the fifth seed with an opener at Houston. The Steelers have the inside track on that, though, already having beaten the Chargers this season. If Pittsburgh cannot overtake the Ravens for the NFC North crown, it locks up the No. 5 seed with a win over Cincinnati.
So there’s a chance by the time they get to Sunday afternoon, the Chargers will know where they’re headed before their game starts.
Mile High Stakes
There’s one open spot in the AFC, and it belongs to Denver if the Broncos can beat Kansas City. Good news for Denver: the top-seeded Chiefs might rest their starters.
Still, we’ve seen some crazy outcomes this season, so nothing is a given.
The NFL wanted to keep the mystery up, so it scheduled Miami at the New York Jets in that same Sunday afternoon slot as Chiefs-Broncos. If Denver loses and Miami wins, the Dolphins are in. Remember, long-shot Cincinnati needs to win and have both Denver and Miami lose.
The scenario the league was looking to avoid: Cincinnati loses Saturday night, Miami loses Sunday morning, and the Broncos back into the last playoff spot with little incentive to go full speed Sunday afternoon.
As it did with the NFC South teams, the NFL put Chiefs-Broncos and Dolphins-Jets on different networks so fans can channel surf back and forth.
Grand Finale
It’s a question every season: Which teams will square off in Game 272?
This year it’s 14-2 Minnesota at 13-2 Detroit.
(Incidentally, it was Rams executive Joanna Hunter who coined the term Game 272.)
The winner secures the NFC North and a first-round bye as the NFC’s top seed. The loser, unbelievably, has to turn right around and hit the road as a wild-card team with an incredibly gaudy record.
It marks the first time in NFL history that two teams with 13 or more wins will face each other in a regular-season game.
Strange days indeed.
This story originally appeared in Los Angeles Times.
