By Wayne Cole and Medha Singh
(Reuters) – The dollar retreated on Monday after a stellar run as the pick for U.S. Treasury secretary seemed to reassure the bond market about fiscal discipline, pulling yields lower and shaving some of the currency’s rate advantage.
Yields on 10-year Treasuries slipped to 4.343%, from 4.412% late on Friday, as President-elect Donald Trump’s choice of fund manager Scott Bessent was welcomed by the bond market as an old Wall Street hand and fiscal conservative.
However, Bessent has also openly favoured a strong dollar and supported tariffs, suggesting any pullback in the currency might be fleeting.
The dollar has risen for eight consecutive weeks with many technical indicators flashing overbought on bets Trump’s policies would stoke inflation and further support the greenback.
“Pricing in various U.S. assets was pushed quite aggressively in one direction for three weeks,” said Geoff Yu, senior macro strategist at BNY.
“Markets probably need to take a breather when it comes to their dollar positions.”
The dollar index was down 0.8% at 107.22 from its two-year peak of 108.090 on Friday. The greenback dipped 0.2% versus the Japanese yen to 154.52, and further away from its recent peak of 156.76.
The euro edged up 0.3% to $1.0452 and away from Friday’s two-year trough of $1.0332. Resistance is up at $1.0555 and $1.0610, with support around $1.0195 and the major $1.0000 level.
RATE OUTLOOKS DIVERGE
The single currency had taken a hit on Friday as European manufacturing surveys (PMI) showed broad weakness, while U.S. surveys surprised on the high side.
The contrast saw European bond yields fall sharply, widening the gap with Treasury yields to the benefit of the dollar. Markets also priced in more aggressive easing from the European Central Bank, with the probability of a half-point rate cut in December rising to 59%.
“Maybe it’s time euro weakness fades heading into the ECB decision because a lot of dovishness has been priced in but more importantly, because euro dollar has been so aggressively sold,” Yu said.
At the same time, futures scaled back the chance of a quarter-point rate cut from the Federal Reserve in December to 56%, compared to 75% a month ago, according to CME Group’s Fed Watch Tool.
Markets now imply about 150 basis points of ECB easing by the end of next year, compared to around 70 basis points from the Fed.
Also due this week are figures on U.S. and EU inflation, which will further refine the outlook for rates.
Data on UK retail sales also disappointed, leading the market to price in more chance of a rate cut from the Bank of England, albeit in February rather than December.
