We recently compiled a list of the 10 Oversold Growth Stocks to Invest In. In this article, we are going to take a look at where Dollar Tree, Inc. (NASDAQ:DLTR) stands against the other oversold growth stocks.
As investors focus on consumer spending in a bid to assess the broader health of the US economy, current data points demonstrate that the fears of recession are now overdone. UBS believes that the excess savings that were built up during the COVID-19 pandemic are now used up, and elevated levels of interest rates seem to be impacting activity, mainly in the housing market. However, as the US Fed moves further with its policy easing cycle, lower rates are expected to ease some downward pressure on the broader economy.
S&P Global mentioned that a risk-averse mood has been clouding the US stock market investor outlook for 4th straight month. That being said, the overall risk sentiment saw some improvement from September’s 16-month low, as per the latest results from the firm’s Investment Manager Index survey.
Forecasts for Q4 2024
As per JP Morgan, the stocks touched their 44th all-time high recently. Technology (+2.5%) continued to dominate the broader market, with Al roadshows demonstrating improved demand throughout the country. While past performance cannot be relied upon, the seasonality says that Q4 2024 acts as a tailwind for the broader US markets. Overall, consumers increase their spending more on retail at the time of the holiday season and the “Santa Claus” rally. However, the bank believes that 3 global events might affect the Q4 2024 asset returns. These include geopolitical tensions, Chinese policy stimulus, and the U.S. election.
Amidst the geopolitical tensions, gold, which generally produces positive returns in Q4 2024, can act as a safe-haven asset. Since the start of the quarter, oil prices have increased too. Therefore, both oil and gold can hedge portfolios. Next, the large bank believes that if further China’s policy support outpaces the market projections of 2 – 4 trillion renminbi (RMB) supplementary bond issuance, there might be another rally in the offing for onshore and offshore equities and commodities. Talking about the elections, the typical seasonality is likely to persist. There can be increased volatility.
Outlook for Growth Stocks
Market experts opine that when there is a reversal in the global interest rate cycle, the growth stocks are expected to outperform. This is because reduced rates help in fueling liquidity in the growth companies.
As per Comerica Wealth Management, the market environments with declining rates and rising profits support the broader equity prices. Moreover, the expectations of the rate cuts led to a change in the investing appetite as these investors are now focused on public companies that are interest-rate sensitive (including the growth stocks). Therefore, B. Riley Wealth Management believes that dividend stocks, telecoms, and consumer staples are some of the sectors that are likely to benefit.
Our Methodology
To list 10 Oversold Growth Stocks to Invest In, we used a Finviz screener to extract stocks that have fallen significantly on a YTD basis and have a forward P/E of less than 15x. After getting a list of 25-30 stocks, we narrowed it down to the following 10 stocks having high hedge fund holdings, as of Q2 2024. Finally, the stocks were ranked in the ascending order of their hedge fund sentiments.
Why are we interested in the stocks that hedge funds pile into? The reason is simple: our research has shown that we can outperform the market by imitating the top stock picks of the best hedge funds. Our quarterly newsletter’s strategy selects 14 small-cap and large-cap stocks every quarter and has returned 275% since May 2014, beating its benchmark by 150 percentage points (see more details here).
A shopper browsing through a discount retailers merchandise aisle filled with a wide variety of items.
Dollar Tree, Inc. (NASDAQ:DLTR)
Forward P/E (As of 14 October): 10.95x
% Decline on a YD Basis: ~53%
Number of Hedge Fund Holders: 38
Dollar Tree, Inc. (NASDAQ:DLTR) operates discount retail stores.
Dollar Tree, Inc. (NASDAQ:DLTR) adopted a series of strategic initiatives, which should improve its competitive position and financial performance. Its multi-price point strategy at Dollar Tree stores demonstrates a departure from the company’s long-standing $1 price point model. Wall Street believes that this strategy should help its topline and result in margin expansion moving forward.
The expanded product assortment can help attract a broader customer base, which includes those who were earlier shopping at the higher-priced discount retailers. This strategy can enable Dollar Tree, Inc. (NASDAQ:DLTR) to navigate inflationary pressures and challenges related to rising costs, thereby, maintaining margins. Moving forward, strong brand recognition and an extensive store network are expected to fuel revenue growth. In the recent earnings call, Dollar Tree, Inc. (NASDAQ:DLTR highlighted the success of its multi-price expansion and store growth acceleration strategy.
The company adjusted its FY 2024 consolidated net sales outlook range to $30.6 billion – $30.9 billion. Dollar Tree, Inc. (NASDAQ:DLTR) expects adjusted diluted EPS of $5.20 to $5.60. As per Wall Street, the shares of the company have an average price target of $84.00.
Baird Equity Asset Management, an investment management company, released its second quarter 2024 investor letter. Here is what the fund said:
“Consumer discretionary performance was the quarter’s largest detractor. Thematically, our holdings in retail and in particular value retail hurt due to greater-than-anticipated operating challenges amid the persistent inflationary environment. In addition, our expectation that value-based retailers would benefit from consumers trading down, spurring revenue and new customer growth, has not yet materialized in a meaningful way. Of note, Dollar Tree, Inc. (NASDAQ:DLTR) and Five Below delivered disappointing performance.”
Overall DLTR ranks 4th on our list of the oversold growth stocks to invest in. While we acknowledge the potential of DLTR as an investment, our conviction lies in the belief that some deeply undervalued AI stocks hold greater promise for delivering higher returns, and doing so within a shorter timeframe. If you are looking for a deeply undervalued AI stock that is more promising than DLTR but that trades at less than 5 times its earnings, check out our report about the cheapest AI stock.
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Disclosure: None. This article is originally published at Insider Monkey.
