Each week in the NBA is its own story — full of surprises, both positive and negative — and fantasy managers must decide what to believe and what not to believe moving forward. Perhaps we can help. If any of these thoughts come true … don’t be surprised!
Don’t be surprised if … Anthony Edwards is Minnesota’s No. 2 fantasy option
Edwards is commonly and deservingly recognized as one of the top players in the NBA and in the fantasy world, certainly after he put on a show during this past summer’s Olympics. Edwards finished last season as the No. 14 fantasy option in ESPN points formats, and entering this age-23 season, the All-NBA performer certainly made sense for first round status in this season’s ESPN average live drafts, going No. 9 overall.
However, after a mere seven games and with the Timberwolves traveling to Chicago to face the Bulls on Thursday, Edwards has not played to that level for fantasy managers. Team newcomer Julius Randle enters play just a shade behind him in fantasy points, and Randle has been a relative statistical disappointment himself. It seems implausible that Edwards, averaging a career high 27.3 PPG, would be worthy of any negative feedback, but here we are. The ESPN Player Rater also doesn’t feature Edwards leading his own team; C/PF Naz Reid entered Wednesday at No. 45, with Randle at 47. Edwards was 51st.
Edwards is attempting more field goals and really piling on the 3-pointers — he entered Wednesday’s near-full slate leading the league with 36 of them — but he has been a tad bereft in other statistical areas, and fantasy managers probably have noticed. This hardly implies that one should trade Edwards away for lesser talent yet, but this presumed top-10 fantasy option, seemingly a lock to break out in his fifth season, entered Wednesday with fewer ESPN fantasy points than Gradey Dick, Buddy Hield and Jakob Poeltl, among 30-plus others. What gives?
The most glaring alteration in the numbers is directly related to Randle’s arrival, as Edwards has dropped from 5.1 APG to a mere 3 APG. This is stunning. Edwards has committed more turnovers than he has assists, which is obviously not what the team wants. The other change is not Randle’s fault. Edwards is hitting a poor 63.9% of his free throws, which ranks No. 122 out of 129 qualifiers. This isn’t quite Giannis Antetokounmpo territory (he’s at 53.1%!), but it is a big deal in both categories/roto formats and in points leagues when one attempts more than five free throws per game and misses so many of them.
Randle, meanwhile, was a rather large question mark for fantasy leaving the Knicks for Timberwolves in the Karl-Anthony Towns trade, and while he isn’t producing close to the statistical levels he did in recent seasons for scoring and rebounding, he isn’t bad, either. SG Donte DiVincenzo, who came with Randle in the trade, is terribly underachieving, but Randle, thanks to greater efficiency, isn’t hurting fantasy managers. He often directs the offense and leads the club in assists, and his turnover rate is his best in eight seasons. If the minutes and boards rise, which they should as he gets more comfortable in his new environment, Randle should improve statistically, much to our enjoyment.
Don’t panic yet. Edwards may still end up as a top-20 fantasy option, and he may outscore Randle, assuming each appears in a similar number of games. It’s only two weeks, but perhaps Edwards cares little about his inefficiency, playmaking and creativity, and he simply desires to hit as many 3-pointers as he can. The Timberwolves aren’t exactly cruising along with their 4-3 record, so perhaps Edwards gets back to prior stats. Things should improve all around here, but Randle should improve as well, perhaps making this an interesting race for individual fantasy points for a team with one dominant player.
Don’t be surprised if … John Collins is a top-30 fantasy option
Collins was a solid fantasy option early in his career, averaging 21.6 PPG and 10.1 RPG for the 2019-20 Hawks, but then his numbers took a turn, and the franchise couldn’t wait to send him and his contract elsewhere. It took a while. Collins lingered for a few seasons after PG Trae Young became the dominant star there, and he ended up with the rebuilding Jazz prior to last season, when he provided fantasy managers a reasonable 30.3 ESPN fantasy points per game. He was useful, but 123 other players went prior to Collins in preseason average live drafts last month for a reason.
Entering Thursday at Milwaukee, Collins may be the early leading contender for Sixth Man of the Year, averaging 16.6 PPG, 7.7 RPG and 33.9 ESPN fantasy points per game, just outside the top 60. Collins has yet to start a game, a role he hasn’t had since his rookie season, but he is finishing them. Collins provided 28 points, 13 rebounds and 5 assists in Monday’s loss to the Bulls, a sweet 60 ESPN fantasy points. He averages a career best 2.9 APG, nearly a steal and block per outing, and he has missed only one of his 21 free throw attempts.
Perhaps this efficiency drops off when the Jazz give Collins more minutes, which seems likely with team star PF/SF Lauri Markkanen compromised with back issues, and rookies Cody Williams and Kyle Filipowski looking a bit overwhelmed, but Collins deserves more attention in fantasy leagues. Sometimes fantasy managers fade players who do not start games. That was a mistake last year for the top choices for Sixth Man of the Year, led by Minnesota’s Reid (he won the award), Kings SG/SF Malik Monk and Bucks PF Bobby Portis. Don’t ignore Collins.
Don’t be surprised if … Scoot Henderson continues to disappoint
Yeah, I wanted to believe that Henderson would turn into a real-life and fantasy star, and he still has plenty of time to get there, but from watching him over his first eight games this season, there really is little indication this will happen soon. Many of us wanted to believe in Henderson not only because he was the No. 3 pick in the 2023 draft, but there are clear skills here. He showed them late last season, albeit when relevant teammates were out and he had all the usage to himself, averaging 18.9 PPG and 7.9 APG over the final 14 games.
Henderson scored 22 points in the team’s opener a few weeks ago, but he enters Thursday at San Antonio having scored 20 points over his past three games, hitting 8-of-25 field goals in that span, with 11 assists and 8 turnovers. Henderson remains a terrible outside shooter and quite turnover prone, and yeah, he is only 20 years old, but the Blazers are playing him fewer minutes than last year for a reason, and that reason is not they are trying to win basketball games. The upside is intriguing, but there is little indication of Henderson reaching that upside this season.
Fantasy managers — and my hand is raised here — made Henderson a popular late-round selection, but we wanted to see him start games and play more minutes and show much better efficiency shooting and directing the offense. Henderson is rostered in 41% of ESPN standard leagues. It’s only two weeks, but if you need to fill the point guard slot, it sure makes more sense to roster the Hornets’ Tre Mann, Celtics Payton Pritchard, Grizzlies Scotty Pippen Jr. and myriad others available in more leagues than Henderson. Check back on Henderson in a few months.
Wizards SF/PF Kyle Kuzma goes earlier in ESPN standard drafts, as he averaged 22.2 PPG last season and may do so again, and SG/PG Jordan Poole is still there, but these fellows don’t do much else to aid a fantasy team. Last season, Kuzma averaged 36.7 ESPN fantasy points per game. Poole was at 29.1 points. Valanciunas averaged only 28.4 points, but he also played only 23.5 MPG in New Orleans, and he barely got to shoot when he was out there. I see a mild Valanciunas renaissance coming. He averaged better than 36 fantasy points per game as recently as 2022. Huge opportunity awaits. Expect something big this season.
