Ford Motor (F) on Friday reported robust U.S. auto sales and EV sales for the fourth quarter of 2024. General Motors (GM) and other carmakers are preparing to report Q4 new vehicle sales. GM stock slid further below a key level on Friday while Ford stock gained.
Robust Auto Sales In Q4, Record EV Sales In 2024
A robust Q4 should lift 2024 sales to above 15.8 million vehicles, the best level since 2019 and above the industry’s expectations at the beginning of last year, Cox Automotive said.
U.S. auto sales kicked higher in the final quarter of 2024 after steady growth in the first three quarters, the analysts said. They tied the uptick to rising inventories and deeper discounts, as well as some pull-forward in EV demand following Donald Trump’s win in the November U.S. elections.
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In 2024, Cox analysts see another record year of U.S. EV sales at around 1.3 million, up from 1.2 million in 2023. That is despite declining sales for Tesla (TSLA). Legacy automakers are shifting, albeit somewhat unsteadily, from gas and diesel cars to electric and hybrid vehicles.
Here are the Cox Automotive Q4 sales estimates, including growth or decline vs. the year-ago quarter. Check back for results on Friday.
General Motors Growing EV Share As Tesla Stumbles
Analysts estimate that GM will sell 736,611 units in the final quarter of 2024, up 18.5% vs. a year ago. For full-year 2024, GM is expected to sell 2.69 million vehicles in the U.S. market, up 4.2%.
Along with overall sales, investors will watch whether GM maintains EV sales momentum. In Q3, GM’s EV sales surged 60% thanks to several new, mass-market, all-electric Chevrolet entries, mainly the Equinox EV. GM said it has become the No. 2 U.S. EV seller behind Tesla (and ahead of Ford), while growing its U.S. EV market share to 9.5% in Q3 from 7.1% in Q2.
However, both GM and Ford are now shifting more toward hybrid vehicles, which are selling faster than pure electric cars.
GM stock fell 1.2% in Friday’s stock market action, sliding further below the 50-day moving average. But GM shares rallied for most of 2024 while most rivals struggled. Robust GM earnings defied challenging industry conditions. The top U.S. automaker cited strong pricing and spending discipline.
Tesla stock rallied after sinking 6.1% on Thursday. Cox analysts estimated that Tesla’s U.S. EV sales fell 6% in 2024, though Tesla itself does not break down its EV sales by country or geographic region.
Separately, Carvana (CVNA) extended Thursday’s losses. Shares fell on Thursday after short seller Hindenburg Research called the company’s recent turnaround a “mirage” built upon unstable loans and accounting manipulation.
Toyota Motor
Analysts estimate Toyota Motor (TM) will sell 606,256 units in Q4 2024, down 2%. For the full year, Toyota’s U.S. sales are expected to reach 2.34 million, up 3.9%.
In hybrid gas-electric vehicles, Ford and GM are lagging Japanese rivals Toyota and Honda. Those two hybrid leaders are starting to push harder on purely battery electric vehicles as well.
Toyota stock dipped 0.8% on Thursday, the first trading day of 2025, after cratering last year. But Toyota and Honda stock surged last week on the companies’ plans to revive growth. Toyota plans to increase its return on equity to compete globally, reports said.
Toyota stock edged up on Thursday, back below the 200-day average after jumping above it on the merger news.
Ford’s EV Sales Jump In Q4 And 2024, Driving Growth
On Friday, Ford reported Q4 sales of 530,660 vehicles, up 8.8%. For the full year, Ford posted unit sales of 2.08 million, a 4.2% increase, and expanding its market share, the company said.
Both beat analyst estimates. Analysts had projected Ford Q4 sales of 519,808 vehicles. For the full year, Ford’s U.S. sales were expected to reach 2.06 million.
In Q4, Ford’s hybrid sales grew 26.5%. That outpaced a 16.3% gain for EV sales and 6.8% gain for traditional vehicles with internal combustion engines (ICE). For the full year, sales of Ford hybrid and electric vehicles combined jumped 38.3% to a record 285,291 units, while sales of Ford ICE vehicles were almost flat, increasing 0.2% to 1.79 million units.
Ford reported that the Mustang Mach-E had its best-ever quarter in Q4, with more than 16,000 units sold, “making it the best-selling electric SUV behind only Tesla’s Model Y in 2024.” The Mach-E drove Ford’s Q4 EV sales, which jumped 22% to 77,258, a quarterly record. That also meant Ford’s EV sales quickened in Q4 on a sequential basis, after jumping 12.2% in Q3 2024.
Further, Ford said it grew 2024 retail sales at a 6% rate, double the estimated industry pace. The Q4 retail pace clocked in at a higher 17%, led by an important 25% increase for F-series trucks, Ford’s big moneymakers. For the full year, F-series truck sales were up just 2% to 765,649 units.
Shares of Ford Motor gained nearly 1% on Friday after closing at its worst level in nearly four years on Thursday. Ford stock is below a falling 50-day moving average, which remains below the 200-day line, a sign of both short- and long-term weakness.
Other Automakers: Hyundai, Honda, Stellantis
For Hyundai (HYMTF), which trades over the counter, Cox Auto analysts estimated Q4 U.S. sales of 439,274, up 9%. Its 2024 vehicle sales were seen rising 1.8% to 1.68 million units.
On Friday, Hyundai reported 2024 sales of 836,802 units, a 4% increase. Sister brand Kia reported 2024 sales of 796,488 units, an almost 2% increase. Both reported setting new all-time annual sales records. The Korean automakers have seen rapid sales growth, on the back of strong EV lineups.
For Honda Motor (HMC), analysts expect Q4 sales of 357,392 units, up 5.9%. Over 2024, Honda’s U.S. sales are seen rising 8.1% to 1.41 million vehicles.
For Stellantis (STLA), analysts estimate Q4 sales of 343,552, down 8%. In 2024, the Dodge and Jeep parent company’s U.S. sales are seen sliding 15% to around 1.3 million vehicles.
In December, Honda confirmed that it is mulling a merger with Japanese rival Nissan (NSANY). Also last month, Stellantis CEO Carlos Tavares resigned abruptly amid disappointing sales and reported differences with the board. The Italian-American carmaker expects to appoint a new CEO in the first half of 2025 and backed 2024 guidance.
Honda stock eased 0.4% on Thursday. Shares jumped above the 50-day line last month on the merger news. Stellantis stock shed 2.1% after crumbling below key averages in 2024. Hyundai shed nearly 3%.
Overall, U.S. auto sales are set to rise 2% to almost 16 million in 2024, and to gain a further 3% in 2025, Cox Auto analysts said.
The annualized rate of U.S. auto sales in December is expected to reach 16.5 million units, up from the 15.9 million pace a year ago, according to Cox. It would be steady from the November pace.
Please follow Aparna Narayanan on X @IBD_Aparna for more coverage.
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