By Raphielle Johnson
The 2024-25 NBA season is a little over one month away, making this prime time for fantasy managers to prepare for their drafts. Rotoworld will have articles dropping throughout this time, beginning with fantasy-related thoughts on every team. Next up in our division-by-division previews is the Southwest Division.
After a few seasons in which Denver’s Nikola Jokic was viewed as the unquestioned 1.1, that may change this fall. Victor Wembanyama was elite during his rookie season, and if that represents his fantasy “floor,” look out. And he isn’t the only Southwest Division player projected to be a first-round pick, with Dallas having Luka Doncic, and Kyrie Irving could sneak into that level in larger leagues.
Dallas Mavericks
2023-24 Record: 50-32
Pace: 100.1 (6th)
Offensive Rating: 117.6 (10th)
Defensive Rating: 115.4 (18th)
One Potential Sleeper: Dereck Lively II
Classifying Lively as a sleeper, given the flashes shown when available last season, could be viewed as a stretch of the word’s definition. However, the rookie was ranked outside the top 150 in 9-cat, per-game value after the February trade deadline and finished the season as a 10th-round player, according to Basketball Monster. Fantasy managers should focus more on Lively’s production during the Mavericks’ run to the NBA Finals, as he averaged nearly two minutes more per game than starting center Daniel Gafford. In 21 playoff games, the lottery pick out of Duke averaged 7.9 points, 7.4 rebounds, 1.3 assists, and 1.0 blocks in 22.0 minutes, shooting 67.4% from the field. Lively may not have offered top-100 value as a rookie, but he hasn’t even approached his ceiling. Even in a timeshare with Gafford, Lively can finish safely within the top 100 in 2024-25.
One Potential Bust: Daniel Gafford
Gafford had an excellent 2023-24 season as far as fantasy value is concerned, finishing as a 4th-round player in 9-cat formats and 5th-round in 8-cat. Appearing in 74 games between Washington and Dallas, he averaged 11.0 points, 7.6 rebounds, 1.6 assists, 0.9 steals, and 2.1 blocks in 24.5 minutes, shooting 72.5% from the field and 67.4% from the foul line. However, Gafford’s post-trade production was boosted somewhat due to Dereck Lively II being limited to 19 games due to injury. A healthy Lively averaged more minutes per game than Gafford during Dallas’ run to the NBA Finals, and he is the team’s first-round pick. If the minutes split shifts in Lively’s favor, Gafford’s fantasy value would take a hit.
Notable Number: 44.1
Last season, just over 44 percent of Dallas’ field-goal attempts came from beyond the arc, with the team ranking second in the NBA in 3-point attempt rate. Nine Mavericks who saw action averaged at least one 3-pointer per game, with Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving leading the way as expected. Tim Hardaway Jr., the only other Dallas player to average more than two made triples per game last season, is now a Detroit Piston, which will open up opportunities for some of the Mavericks’ remaining guards. Can Jaden Hardy of Dante Exum figure more prominently within the rotation, especially with Josh Green gone? Showing the ability to cash in on perimeter shooting opportunities created by Doncic and Irving could make those players worthy of late-round fantasy consideration.
Houston Rockets
2023-24 Record: 41-41
Pace: 99.0 (13th)
Offensive Rating: 114.5 (20th)
Defensive Rating: 113.4 (9th)
One Potential Sleeper: Amen Thompson
Thompson had a solid rookie campaign as the fourth overall pick in last summer’s draft. In 62 games, he accounted for 9.5 points, 6.6 rebounds, 2.6 assists, 1.3 steals, and 0.6 blocks in 22.4 minutes, shooting 53.6% from the field and 68.4% from the foul line. Fantasy managers did not receive much 3-point production from Thompson, as he shot 8-of-58, but the versatility he brings to the table makes the 6-foot-7 wing a valuable fantasy option. What excites fantasy managers most is how Thompson closed out his rookie season. Starting his final 17 appearances, Amen averaged 13.9 points, 9.2 rebounds, 3.6 assists, 1.4 steals, and 0.4 blocks in 29.6 minutes, shooting 58.6% from the field and 74.2% from the foul line. While the Rockets don’t lack options on the wings, Thompson’s skill set could make him a fantasy steal in his second season.
One Potential Bust: Jalen Green
As mentioned above, anyone can guess what the Rockets will do with Green. While he caught fire in March, consistency remains an issue for the former lottery pick. For the season, Green shot 42.3% from the field, which is way too low of a number, especially when factoring in the presence of Fred VanVleet (41.6% FG last season) at point guard. Add Reed Sheppard’s selection to this summer’s draft and the development of wings such as Tari Eason and Cam Whitmore. Green is a player fantasy managers should look to avoid in the middle rounds of drafts.
Notable Number: 114.3
What a difference a year (and a new head coach) makes. While much was made of the Rockets’ improvements on the defensive end of the floor under Ime Udoka, improving from 29th to 9th in defensive rating in his first season, this was also an improved offensive team. Houston’s average of 114.3 points per game improved by nearly four points compared to 2022-23. The efficiency did not improve as much offensively as it did defensively, but the changes made to the roster produced a noticeably better team. If Houston can continue to improve offensively, that should bode well for the fantasy values of the team’s key contributors, led by VanVleet and Alperen Sengun.
Memphis Grizzlies
2023-24 Record: 27-55
Pace: 98.2 (16th)
Offensive Rating: 107.2 (30th)
Defensive Rating: 114.3 (12th)
One Potential Sleeper: Vince Williams Jr.
With the Grizzlies back to full health, young players who took advantage of extended minutes in 2022-23 are bound to take a hit regarding playing time. However, that may not mean they fall off the radar in fantasy basketball, especially in deeper leagues. While GG Jackson had his moments as a rookie, Williams’ all-around game (and Jackson’s broken foot) make him a better player for fantasy managers as a potential sleeper. In 52 games last season, he averaged 10.0 points, 5.6 rebounds, 3.4 assists, 0.9 steals, 0.7 blocks, and 1.5 3-pointers in 27.6 minutes. Williams shot the ball reasonably well, finishing with splits of 44.6% from the field, 37.8% from three, and 80.0% from the foul line. Having a healthy Desmond Bane in the mix does lower Williams’ fantasy ceiling. Still, the versatility he brings to the table should keep the door open for him to earn opportunities.
One Potential Bust: Santi Aldama
Aldama is coming off the best season of his NBA career, but the circumstances aren’t great when considering his chances of taking the next step in 2024-25. In 61 games, the 2021 first-round pick averaged 10.7 points, 5.8 rebounds, 2.3 assists, 0.7 steals, 0.9 blocks, and 1.7 3-pointers, shooting 43.5% from the field and 62.1% from the foul line. While the field-goal percentage can be attributed, in part, to Memphis’ injury woes (especially at point guard), Memphis has been at its best in seasons past when they have a true center in the starting lineup. The draft addressed that issue, with the Grizzlies selecting Zach Edey. Between his arrival, Brandon Clarke being fully healthy, and GG Jackson also in the fold after a better-than-expected rookie campaign, Aldama is in a difficult spot regarding fantasy potential.
Notable Number: 5
Only five Grizzlies played at least 50 games last season, with Jaren Jackson Jr. (66) and Aldama (61) logging 60 or more. Ja Morant played nine games, with new addition Marcus Smart only appearing in 20 and Bane 42. Due to the many injuries, 33 players made at least one appearance for Memphis last season. Availability issues are terrible for fantasy basketball, leading to some unexpected players jumping onto the scene. If Memphis can stay healthy, players expected to be key fantasy contributors should come through for managers.
New Orleans Pelicans
2023-24 Record: 49-33
Pace: 97.9 (17th)
Offensive Rating: 117.4 (11th)
Defensive Rating: 112.9 (7th)
One Potential Sleeper: Karlo Matkovic
With Jonas Valanciunas leaving via free agency, New Orleans had a noticeable hole in the middle of its starting lineup. And unless David Griffin has a move to make before the start of the season, the available options don’t exactly jump off the screen. The Pelicans signed veteran Daniel Theis in free agency and used their first-round pick on Baylor talent Yves Missi. The third move was to sign Matkovic to a three-year contract in mid-July after he impressed during the summer league. Missi, who could be New Orleans’ center of the future, will need time to develop, and Theis is a bit undersized at 6-foot-8. The circumstances make the 6-foot-11 Matkovic well worth the risk in fantasy drafts, even if the Pelicans occasionally decide to use Zion Williamson at center.
One Potential Bust: Brandon Ingram
With Griffin saying in the aftermath of the Pelicans being swept out of the playoffs that significant changes were coming, many expected Ingram to be moved. He remains on the roster and appears likely to head into the 2024-25 season playing for a new contract. While that could serve as solid motivation, his presence essentially stunts the growth of Trey Murphy, one of the NBA’s best young shooters (and athletes). After providing top-50 fantasy value in his first two seasons with the Pelicans, Ingram has not cracked that threshold in the last three. That streak extending to four in 2024-25 would be unsurprising, and there’s also Ingram’s injury history for fantasy managers to consider.
Notable Number: 70
After appearing in 29 games during the 2022-23 season, Zion Williamson played in a career-high 70 in 2023-24. He may not have come through with huge numbers for fantasy managers, but Zion’s mere presence on the court meant that all was not lost value-wise. There were photos of a noticeably svelte Williamson floating around social media this offseason; are the changes legitimate and sustainable, or will he run into trouble as the season progresses? Even without a consistent perimeter shot, Williamson has the tools needed to be a significant asset to fantasy managers, but only if he can remain healthy.
San Antonio Spurs
2023-24 Record: 22-60
Pace: 101.1 (3rd)
Offensive Rating: 110.0 (26th)
Defensive Rating: 116.4 (22nd)
One Potential Sleeper: Chris Paul
To label a future first-ballot Hall of Fame guard who’s been a fixture in the top 25 of fantasy leagues a “sleeper” may be a stretch, but Paul is a solid pick based on his 2023-24 campaign. In his lone season with the Warriors, the veteran point guard appeared in 58 games and finished ranked just inside the top 100 in 9-cat formats. This was the first time CP3 failed to finish within the top 35 in his NBA career. Moving to San Antonio, which made it clear last season that their trust in Tre Jones is limited, should give Paul’s fantasy value a welcome boost. Will he be a top-25 player? Probably not, and there’s no need to select him that early in drafts. However, getting him in the 7th or 8th round will represent good value, given his expected role with the Spurs.
One Potential Bust: Keldon Johnson
Outside of the 2021-22 season, where he finished just outside the top 100 in 9-cat, per-game value, Johnson has primarily been a late-round option in fantasy basketball. Averaging 15.7 points, 5.5 rebounds, 2.8 assists, 0.7 steals, and 1.8 3-pointers in 29.5 minutes, he finished the 2023-24 campaign just inside the top 150. Johnson’s playing time decreased by nearly three per game compared to the 2022-23 season, and this was on a roster lacking trusted playmakers. While the addition of Chris Paul should, in theory, address that issue, the Spurs adding Harrison Barnes may cut into Johnson’s fantasy value. While there have been managers who’ve held out hope for a top-100 season from Keldon in seasons past, there will be better options available on most (if not all) draft boards.
Notable Number: 101.1
The Spurs finished last season ranked third in the NBA in pace, but this was not an efficient offensive team by any stretch of the imagination. For that reason, it may be in the best interest of this young squad to slow things down, and the addition of CP3 will undoubtedly help with that. In his last 11 NBA seasons, only three times has Paul been part of a team that finished in the top 10 in pace: 2013-14 and 2014-15 with the Clippers, and in 2021-22 with the Suns. A downshift in pace should not negatively impact a Wembanyama or Devin Vassell, but some of San Antonio’s other supplementary pieces may see their fantasy values take a hit.
