Performing at a high level in the NBA as a rookie can be very challenging, as, for the most part, the talent level is so much higher than any player has ever faced in their life previously. However, many players often see an improvement in their production during their sophomore campaigns as they become acclimated to the league and have a full offseason under their belt. A key factor in a breakout season is opportunity, so all the following breakout candidates are at least projected to start for their team next season. Finally, I won’t be choosing any rookies who had an outstanding season in 2023-24. So, while Victor Wembanyama could very well join MVP conversations next year, he won’t be on my breakout candidates list.
Fantasy Basketball Breakouts
Ausar Thompson, Detroit Pistons
Thompson missed the final 19 games of 2023-24 with blood clots but is expected to be ready to go for the beginning of 2024-25. In the 21-year-old forward’s 63 regular-season appearances, including 38 starts, he averaged 8.8 points, 6.4 rebounds, 1.9 assists, 1.1 steals and 0.9 blocks in 25.1 minutes. While Thompson established himself as one of the league’s best perimeter defenders already, he also mightily struggled with his efficiency, posting 48.3/18.6/59.7 shooting splits. Thompson’s outside shooting is particularly worrisome, but his ability to crash the glass and impact the game on the defensive end at such a young age should continue to earn him extended minutes. Unlike his twin brother Amen in Houston, Ausar is expected to earn a starting spot for Detroit this season, which should allow him to continue to stuff the stat sheet. Don’t expect huge scoring outputs from Thompson, but it wouldn’t be surprising for him to appear on All-Defensive Team ballots.
Brandin Podziemski, Golden State Warriors
Podziesmki was selected 19th overall by the Warriors in the 2023 NBA Draft and surprised many with his contributions right out of the gate. As a rookie, he averaged 9.2 points, 5.8 rebounds and 3.7 assists in 26.6 minutes across 74 appearances, including 28 starts, leading to an All-Rookie First-Team selection. The 21-year-old also displayed impressive efficiency for a young guard, shooting 45.4 percent from the field and 38.5 percent from three. With Klay Thompson leaving for the Mavericks in the offseason, Podziemski now has a clear starting spot alongside Steph Curry in the backcourt. The Warriors refused to include Podziemski in trade conversations last year, demonstrating their confidence in the Santa Clara product to help lead Golden State into a new era alongside Jonathan Kuminga. If Podziemski can carry over his efficiency to his increased role and work off the space that Curry’s gravity generates, a year-two breakout is surely in the cards.
Gradey Dick, Toronto Raptors
Dick was selected 13th overall by the Raptors in the 2023 NBA Draft, mostly due to his elite shooting resume at Kansas. While the 6-foot-6 guard struggled with his efficiency out of the gate, a brief stint with the Raptors 905 of the G League helped him ultimately find his footing in the NBA. Since the beginning of 2024, Dick made 41 regular-season appearances for Toronto, including 16 starts, and averaged 10.8 points, 2.7 rebounds and 1.3 assists in 25.2 minutes. The most encouraging part of the 20-year-old’s stretch of play was posting 44.8/39.1/86.3 shooting splits. On the season as a whole, Dick managed to convert 36.5 percent of his 4.0 three-point attempts per contest. With Dick a strong option to start alongside Immanuel Quickley in Toronto’s backcourt, the sharpshooter’s ability from beyond the arc should help him develop into a quality scoring option, consistently putting up double-digit points.
Taylor Hendricks, Utah Jazz
At 6-foot-9, with the ability to protect the rim and stretch the floor on the offensive end, Hendricks’ intriguing skillset led Utah to select him with the ninth overall pick in last year’s draft. After spending much of the early portion of the 2023-24 campaign with the Salt Lake City Stars of the G League, the 20-year-old forward was able to show his talent in the NBA during the second half of the season. In 40 appearances, including 23 starts, Hendricks averaged 7.3 points, 4.6 rebounds, 0.8 blocks and 0.7 steals in 21.4 minutes. Hendricks not only demonstrated his prowess on the defensive end but also converted 37.9 percent of his 3.5 three-point attempts per contest. Now that he is a candidate to slide into the starting power forward role, Hendricks should be able to average double-digit points and close to a steal and a block per game. Alongside Lauri Markkannen, John Collins and Walker Kessler, Hendricks will fit in nicely with the Jazz’s versatile frontcourt rotation.
Scoot Henderson, Portland Trail Blazers
Henderson is probably the most obvious pick on this list, as he was selected third overall in the 2023 NBA Draft by Portland. The rookie guard was forced to miss extended time with an ankle injury early in the season and then mightily struggled with his efficiency when he was on the floor. This is demonstrated by his 38.5 field-goal percentage and 32.5 three-point percentage in 2023-24. However, Henderson found his form late in the year, starting 14 straight games at the end of the regular season before missing the finale with a hip injury. Over that span, the 20-year-old guard averaged 18.9 points, 7.9 assists, 3.6 rebounds and 1.4 steals in 34.2 minutes. Crucially, Henderson shot 40.8 percent from the field and 39.5 percent on 5.8 three-point attempts per contest during that stretch. Henderson clearly has the athletic potential and playmaking ability to be a star. With him slated to start next to Anfernee Simons in the backcourt in 2024-25, his improved play from late last year could point to a massive breakout campaign. Don’t give up on your Scoot Henderson stock just yet.
Fantasy Basketball Draft Strategy
Check out RotoWire’s How to Play Fantasy Basketball guide for a complete walkthrough, but here is some basic advice:
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Check out custom NBA Fantasy Projections
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Look into Fantasy Basketball Mock Drafts
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Listen to a Fantasy Basketball Podcast
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Check in on Fantasy Basketball Player News
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Read Fantasy Basketball Articles
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Dive into RotoWire’s Fantasy Basketball Draft Kit
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Study NBA Depth Charts
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See RotoWire’s Fantasy Basketball Dynasty Rankings
